2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Hootie]

I take it you're combining Shields 2013 and 2014? Which is why I'm confused.

[Lex Luthor]

Here's the deal. Giving up Myers for Shields isn't a bad thing. But giving up SEVEN years of Wil Myers for TWO years of James Shields is.

[Hootie]

ok on that website Shields has a 2.3 to 1.8 WAR compared to Odorizzi. Odorizzi is 24. Odorizzi makes 500K.

Shields and Wade make a combined...17M?

How much do Myers and Odorizzi make combined?

So we could have taken that 15M in savings and signed ... ?

It was an awful trade when it happened. I was willing to be ok with it if it meant the Royals made the playoffs and made some sort of run. Ok. Fine.

Now that Odorizzi has developed? Hahahaha.

This was a big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big rape.

When the Brewers traded for Greinke we got a nice package. Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi. Cool. The Brewers GOT TO THE PLAYOFFS in a large part because of Greinke.

What did we get? We rented two years of Shields to most likely not make the playoffs, give away a starter who is basically already giving his team Shields level production while also trading a top 5 MLB prospect who scouts rave about who had a tremendous rookie season who happens to play a position in where we start NORI AOKI.

hahaha

oh

but we got Wade Davis...who will be a $7M setup man next year unless we trade him, or trade the 2nd best closer in MLB.

You're right PB...what a trade for us!

[Hootie]

but whatever...maybe we can sign Edison Volquez this offseason!

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

so if you count Shields 4.1 2013 WAR

Shields will end up with about a 5 WAR over 2 years...

it only cost us Myers and Odorizzi, though! Great move Dayton. We may get two above .500 seasons out of it!!

Kansas City Royalsssss baseballllll!!! BE A PART OF IT ALL!

The ****ing moment I heard about that trade I threw a 3 year old type tantrum. I've never been so angry about a non-critical part of my life. before or since.

I loathe GMDM, not for the process and all these years of losing, but because of that ****ing trade. ****.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

ok on that website Shields has a 2.3 to 1.8 WAR compared to Odorizzi. Odorizzi is 24. Odorizzi makes 500K.

Shields and Wade make a combined...17M?

How much do Myers and Odorizzi make combined?

So we could have taken that 15M in savings and signed ... ?

It was an awful trade when it happened. I was willing to be ok with it if it meant the Royals made the playoffs and made some sort of run. Ok. Fine.

Now that Odorizzi has developed? Hahahaha.

This was a big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big rape.

When the Brewers traded for Greinke we got a nice package. Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi. Cool. The Brewers GOT TO THE PLAYOFFS in a large part because of Greinke.

What did we get? We rented two years of Shields to most likely not make the playoffs, give away a starter who is basically already giving his team Shields level production while also trading a top 5 MLB prospect who scouts rave about who had a tremendous rookie season who happens to play a position in where we start NORI AOKI.

hahaha

oh

but we got Wade Davis...who will be a $7M setup man next year unless we trade him, or trade the 2nd best closer in MLB.

You're right PB...what a trade for us!

Ready to get angrier? Monty is showing serious signs that he's turned it around for the Rays in AAA, while the A ball hitter we threw in for the trade is hitting the cover off the ball in the Rays system.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

I take it you're combining Shields 2013 and 2014? Which is why I'm confused.

Yeah, I combined them because he's played in KC both years. Weird concept, I know.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

Here's the deal. Giving up Myers for Shields isn't a bad thing. But giving up SEVEN years of Wil Myers for TWO years of James Shields is.

It's SIX years of Myers, and two have already been burned. He better turn it around quickly in order to make it work. Shields will finish over 7 WAR for us and Myers is at 2.5 WAR for them. There's absolutely no guarantee he'll out-do Shields but even if he does, it'll have taken him much longer to do so.


People need to seriously consider present value for WAR anyway. 7 WAR in two seasons is worth way more than 10 WAR in five. It's like those people who still think we "won" the Greinke trade just because Cain-Escobar play here forever and eventually outdo Greinke's WAR in MIlwaukee. It's just terrible math.


Smart teams, like Milwaukee, just traded him off in year 2 and got a good SS in return. And already have CF covered via their system. They don't even need Cain or Escobar. If they can do it so can we. If we produce a decent RF (and we did last year in WAR value) then Myers is irrelevant.

[DeepSouth]

You guys remind me of my ex wife. Wanting to argue about crap from the past that will not make any difference with the way things are today. Get over it. Royals make the playoffs, hopefully nobody will talk about "The Trade" ever again.

[Hootie]

PB, I realize everyone here thinks you're a moron...I haven't been able to make that determination yet.

You are making a real good case here, though.

Anyone who thinks we "won" the Shields trade...or didn't pay a 300% markup for James ****ing Shields...is a god damn moron.

We should've gotten David ****ing Price for that package.

[Hootie]

and the reason for my confusion with your WAR statistic was simple...

I had stated that Odorizzi was already pitching as good as James ****ing Shields.

Here's a nice question for you:

If the Rays decided they wanted to buy now because they are back in playoff contention and we offered them Shields (plus eating the remainder of his salary for the year) straight up for Odorizzi...would they take it?

The answer is quite simple, my friend. They'd say, "KEEP YOUR MONEY AND GO **** YOURSELF!"

So, after 1 ****ing year of James Shields...they already won the damn trade with Jake Odorizzi by himself.

That's simply embarrassing.

[Valiant]

So Odirizzi finally has a great game and people are clamoring again we got severely raped? Not to mention Myers and the other players are back/still in the minors. But we got raped?

The trade still is a wash, if Butler/Moose/Hosmer would have showed up this season we would be a playoff team.

IF, Odorizzi and the others turn into stars then you can say we got raped. But right now it is not happening, even after this one game.

The Royals took their shot, we failed, but they tried. Better then the past 20 plus years before this and last year.

[Hootie]

(and that's without mentioning they still have a perennial all-star caliber power hitting RF'er waiting to get healthy and start raping faces)

but we have Nori Aoki!!!!

but again...after 1 ****ing year we'd have a tough time trading Davis/Shields back to Tampa Bay and eating a large portion of Shields' salary just so we could get Odorizzi back.

but you can keep arguing like we super won that deal because Shields was good in 2013 and we played like 3 meaningful games in September.

[Hootie]

it hasn't been one game

his April ERA: 6.85

Since April:

90 IP
30 ER
107 Ks

So, essentially...he's had a 3 month stretch now that has been as dominant as any stretch in James Shields' career. Shields has never averaged more than 1K per inning in his career.

He's pitching like a staff ace. He has great stuff. If he keeps throwing strikes the way he has the past 3 months...he'd be either a pretty decent 1 or a dominant 2 on any staff.

[duncan_idaho]

Thoughts on trade:

I talked to one of my guys last night and did not hear very many positive things about Valencia. Between his poor defense and poor attitude (It sounds like he wore out his welcome here very quickly, just like everywhere else he has played), they were looking to move him regardless.

Apparently Kratz is a Mennonite... but a Mennonite with good power who should be a solid backup catcher. So the Royals probably got better at one bench spot (C) at the expense of another.

Hendriks is probably a AAAA pitcher, but it does provide some rotation depth (better option than some of the guys at Omaha if they need a spot start).

Ultimately, though, I think this move is about the Royals' terrible roster construction. Swapping Colon for Valencia gives KC another guy on the roster who can at least legitimately play SS and gives them a chance to give Escobar a break, which he needs (don't think it's any surprise he's been slipping a bit at the plate and in the field... those are signs of either carelessness or weariness, and I'd place my money on the latter).

Hopefully, the Royals are bright enough to use Colon at 3B against LHP, but it's the Royals, so...

On Odorizzi...

The thing that's frustrating there (and that whole trade is still frustrating, though not as bad as my initial reaction to it, which involved going ballistic) is that if KC had kept him, he wouldn't be this pitcher.

I don't remember Rany talking about him as a front-end pitcher at the time of the trade, but the scouting profile on him at the time was "Solid back-end starter" not ToR guy.

The change for him has been learning to throw the same split-finger changeup as Alex Cobb, which has given him a legitimate put-away pitch. If he's in KC, he never learns that pitch, and he never becomes the force he has been of late.

I still say the balance of that trade is determined by the Royals ability to make the playoffs either this year or last. (Obviously, last year they failed). You don't make a win-now move to win 86 games and have a nice season. You don't sell off future assets as valuable as Myers and Odorizzi for that type of return.

The Royals have gotten good present value out of the deal, but if they don't make the playoffs (and is dropping a one-game playoff in Orange County really "Making" the playoffs?), it's a loss.

And as for the revisited subject of the Greinke for Cain-Escobar deal... Greinke accounted for 3.7 bWAR or or about 6 fWAR (can't find their split for his 2012 season, it probably is a little higher since he was moved at the trade deadline) in Milwaukee. Alcides Escobar produced 6.1 bWAR and 4 fWAR in that timeframe (a figure hurt by Fangraphs somehow assigning him negative defensive value in 2012).

The Royals came out pretty well in present value in that deal, just comparing those two guys over those two years. When you add the additional years of control of Escobar as well as Cain's contribution, it's really doing mental gymnastics to suggest anything other than Moore getting a very good return in a low leverage situation.

Yes, Milwaukee flipped Greinke for Jean Segura. But Segura accounted for just 0.1 bWAR and -0.2 fWAR in 2012. He was a 3.5 bWAR and 3.3 fWAR player last year due to his hot start at the plate, but has been a 0.7 bWAR and -0.3 fWAR player this season.

So while it looked like Milwaukee really crushed that Greinke deal on about June 1, 2013... the longer view tells a different story.