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[ROYC75]

Discussion: All things Broncos.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by manchambo

Someone is. These things are always cyclical given the luck involved.

It's not like anyone knew how good Mahomes would be, including the Chiefs, or he wouldn't have been picked where he was.

Even in the 1983 draft, Blackledge was the QB picked after Elway, and Marino was picked at 27.

No one really knows--the statistics show it's basically a coin flip. You gotta flip the coin a few times to get a great QB.

What you're tiptoeing around is called the Paradox of Skill.

At a certain point, when the skill-levels are high enough in a zero sum enterprise, the skill of the respective parties becomes secondary to luck.

They're all good - so there's nobody that's going to just smarts their way to the top of the heap. Some of 'em just get a lucky break here and there and that's what pushes them to the top.

But you've ignored the necessary precondition that doesn't apply to the Broncos - skill. In order for luck to matter, you have to be equally skilled; you have to be in the pool of intelligent front offices who are able to stand at the roulette wheel and give luck a chance.

You guys ain't there. Or close to it. You're the janitors walking around scraping gum off the bottom of the craps tables.

The Broncos organization is full of morons that think Bo Nix is an NFL quarterback. So no, they're not gonna get lucky. Ever. They're not even smart enough for THAT.

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

What you're tip-toing around is called the Paradox of Skill.

At a certain point, when the skill-levels are high enough in a zero sum enterprise, the skill of the respective parties becomes secondary to luck.

They're all good - so there's nobody that's going to just smarts their way to the top of the heap. Some of 'em just get a lucky break here and there and that's what pushes them to the top.

But you've ignored the necessary precondition that doesn't apply to the Broncos - skill. In order for luck to matter, you have to be equally skilled; you have to be in the pool of intelligent front offices who are able to stand at the roulette wheel and give luck a chance.

You guys ain't there. Or close to it. You're the janitors walking around scraping gum off the bottom of the craps tables.

The Broncos organization is full of morons that think Bo Nix is an NFL quarterback. So no, they're not gonna get lucky. Ever. They're not even smart enough for THAT.

I don't agree when it comes to QBs. The best minds in history are hit and miss.

Bill Walsh managed to get and develop two great QBs. Belichik didn't, Shanahan didn't, Reid hasn't, Parcells didn't. It starts to make you wonder if there really are any geniuses or just guys who happened to get HOF QBs. (Of course this doesn't apply to the roster as whole--obviously some people are much better than others.)

Can you think of someone else?

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by manchambo

People say that kind of stuff all the time.

If he and the organization really believed that, they wouldn't have sat at 10 hoping to get him. Anyone who knew what Mahomes was would trade everything to pick him.

You do realize that the Chiefs didn't "sit at 10", right? They had the 27th pick in the draft and made a huge trade up to get him. It takes a lot of draft capital to move up that far, and someone willing to trade from the top ten to the back of the round. That was likely as high as they could get. Yeah, they were hoping that he would fall to 10. But that was where the draft partner was that was will to trade all the way down to 27.

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by manchambo

I don't agree when it comes to QBs. The best minds in history are hit and miss.

Bill Walsh managed to get and develop two great QBs. Belichik didn't, Shanahan didn't, Reid hasn't, Parcells didn't. It starts to make you wonder if there really are any geniuses or just guys who happened to get HOF QBs. (Of course this doesn't apply to the roster as whole--obviously some people are much better than others.)

Can you think of someone else?

You might wanna check Reid’s resume. And all we’ve heard from you turds is how sEaN pAiNpIlL iS a QuArTeRbAcK wHiSpErEr. When all he’s accomplished is wasting a HOF quarterback by getting just one SB ring.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by manchambo

People say that kind of stuff all the time.

If he and the organization really believed that, they wouldn't have sat at 10 hoping to get him. Anyone who knew what Mahomes was would trade everything to pick him.

First off, it's not "people", we're talking about the guy that was the catalyst of the pick. I'm assuming by "people" you mean fans and the media, which is irrelevant.

Second, no it doesn't. Why don't you provide some examples since it "happens all the time".

I'll wait...

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by manchambo

Someone is. These things are always cyclical given the luck involved.

It's not like anyone knew how good Mahomes would be, including the Chiefs, or he wouldn't have been picked where he was.

Even in the 1983 draft, Blackledge was the QB picked after Elway, and Marino was picked at 27.

No one really knows--the statistics show it's basically a coin flip. You gotta flip the coin a few times to get a great QB.

I did. I knew EXACTLY what Mahomes was when they drafted him. Dude was ****ing phenomenal on a shit team. Was not throwing empty swings and screens like a certain Oregon QB. He was making big boy elite passes into tight windows EVERY week. Most impressive college player I've ever seen and said it BEFORE he was a Chief

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Chiefs certainly did moving from 27 to TEN

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by staylor26

First off, it's not "people", we're talking about the guy that was the catalyst of the pick. I'm assuming by "people" you mean fans and the media, which is irrelevant.

Second, no it doesn't. Why don't you provide some examples since it "happens all the time".

I'll wait...

I'm not talking about any of that. I'm talking about the fact that talent scouts think they have found a HOF QB pretty much every year, and they're usually wrong.

When they turn out to be right, they say "I knew that guy was going to be great."

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

You might wanna check Reid’s resume. And all we’ve heard from you turds is how sEaN pAiNpIlL iS a QuArTeRbAcK wHiSpErEr. When all he’s accomplished is wasting a HOF quarterback by getting just one SB ring.

I don't know what you mean, really. He was around Favre, but I don't believe he was responsible for picking him. And that's the only QB he's worked with at all in Mahomes's league. McNabb was good, but not that good.

You certainly have not heard me say anything like that about Payton. I don't at all understand why we gave up a draft pick for him.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by manchambo

I'm not talking about any of that. I'm talking about the fact that talent scouts think they have found a HOF QB pretty much every year, and they're usually wrong.

When they turn out to be right, they say "I knew that guy was going to be great."

I get it. You mean like when the Donks staff said that Ossweiller, Lynch, Lock, and now Nix were going to be great, they were wrong? Got it. I thought that you were talking about the Chiefs, who said that Mahomes was the best that Veach had ever seen, and he was right

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

You do realize that the Chiefs didn't "sit at 10", right? They had the 27th pick in the draft and made a huge trade up to get him. It takes a lot of draft capital to move up that far, and someone willing to trade from the top ten to the back of the round. That was likely as high as they could get. Yeah, they were hoping that he would fall to 10. But that was where the draft partner was that was will to trade all the way down to 27.

I do realize that. But any rational team that knew how good Mahomes was would give up what they had to to get him.

And remember that no other team knew how good he was or it wouldn't have even been a choice. The Browns would have picked him first and would not have traded.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by manchambo

I'm not talking about any of that. I'm talking about the fact that talent scouts think they have found a HOF QB pretty much every year, and they're usually wrong.

When they turn out to be right, they say "I knew that guy was going to be great."

Not quite. Most of the time it’s “Gee I sure hope this QB ends up being really good.” They’re all in on the investment and the roll of the dice, but very few talent scouts if hooked up to a lie detector are gonna say right after they draft a guy, “He’s 100% an awesome QB with zero negative traits we can’t fix with a little coaching”

You could have done that to Veach after the Mahomes pick and he would have passed that lie detector

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

I get it. You mean like when the Donks staff said that Ossweiller, Lynch, Lock, and now Nix were going to be great, they were wrong? Got it. I thought that you were talking about the Chiefs, who said that Mahomes was the best that Veach had ever seen, and he was right

You're wrong until you're right. And don't pretend that just applies to Denver.

I think the unique person is Mahomes, not Veach. Not that I'm saying Veach is a bad GM--he's a good one.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by manchambo

I don't agree when it comes to QBs. The best minds in history are hit and miss.

Bill Walsh managed to get and develop two great QBs. Belichik didn't, Shanahan didn't, Reid hasn't, Parcells didn't. It starts to make you wonder if there really are any geniuses or just guys who happened to get HOF QBs. (Of course this doesn't apply to the roster as whole--obviously some people are much better than others.)

Can you think of someone else?

A better example for your ‘lucking into a HOF QB’ would be Sean Payton.

Andy Reid developed Brett Favre (ask him), Donovan McNabb & Patrick Mahomes. And he helped Alex Smith to his most successful season ever (2017).

Andy Reid is a QB whisperer.

Sean Payton doesn’t even deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Big Red.

And setting THAT aside, he has nothing to work with now in a 24 year old QB who will never be able to out-Alex Alex Smith. That is Bo Nix’ absolute ceiling.

So, yeah. Enjoy that.

[manchambo]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

A better example for your ‘lucking into a HOF QB’ would be Sean Payton.

Andy Reid developed Brett Favre (ask him), Donovan McNabb & Patrick Mahomes. And he helped Alex Smith to his most successful season ever (2017).

Andy Reid is a QB whisperer.

Sean Payton doesn’t even deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Big Red.

And setting THAT aside, he has nothing to work with now in a 24 year old QB who will never be able to out-Alex Alex Smith. That is Bo Nix’ absolute ceiling.

So, yeah. Enjoy that.

I didn't mention Sean Payton. And I wouldn't.

And I didn't suggest it was all luck.

I did suggest that Bill Walsh is the only person I can think of who picked and developed two all time great QBs.

I'll give you Andy Reid by assuming McNabb belongs in that class plus partial credit for Favre.

Who else?