Why is offense/scoring down in the league the past few years?

[O.city]

So I'm trying to figure out what's happening here, anyone have any ideas?

Is it just that defenses have caught up to the offenses or?

[O.city]

Offenses will figure it out. Then it will be on to the next thing.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I figure we will continue to see those physical teams late in the playoffs, per usual.

Then you'll have the teams with elite QB's there.

But in terms of attacking it, I'd imagine you just have to bludgeon it until they come out of it.

EDIT: I read this wrong at first. Yes, if you are an elite or good team, I dont' know that I'd wanna play this style unless there's just a fire breather on the other side.

Slants and drags.

If you're running that defense, you're not sending extra pressure. And if you're not sending extra pressure, those slants/crossers/etc... will break open. And when they do you'll have guys catching balls underneath with a full head of steam and DBs that aren't allowed to kill them over the middle.

You'll just see more and more teams attack the intermediate/middle of those zones. And as that timing develops over the course of the year, it'll get more and more effective.

[dirk digler]

I do consider though 2 high safeties sitting 20 yds + back sort of like NBA centers camping in the lane.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Offenses will figure it out. Then it will be on to the next thing.

Offenses figured it out decades ago.

They just haven't been doing it as much of late. They'll brush off some old tape and get back to what killed it back then. Start using oversized WRs in the slot again and you'll knock guys out of that in a hurry.

Or, like I suggested right before we traded Hill, put speed EVERYWHERE and attack it outside the hashes downfield. And again, with that split cover 2/4 setup, all you have to do is get one of your guys from the Cover 4 side over to the cover 2 side and he's gonna have MILES of grass to run in.

There are several ways to abuse it. Just gotta execute. Right now teams aren't executing terribly well and the entire concept of that defense is being idiot-proof. So you can play it at/near it's highest level and offenses are still trying to find their footing.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I do consider though 2 high safeties sitting 20 yds + back sort of like NBA centers camping in the lane.

Eh.

Hit 'em in the seam with your TE or slot WR. Or run arrow routes with your backs and you'll have a wide open window about 8 yards deep as he comes out of the cut and then again at 12-14 yards as he clears the MLB. As they start to tighten up the safeties, start throwing post-corners at them.

There are just so many ways to beat this thing. It's a defense that relies on bad offensive execution to work. If you execute that Hybrid Cover 6 at the same level as the opposing offense executes, it gets wrecked.

It depends on entirely on the other offense making mistakes. As the season progresses, fewer and fewer of those mistakes will be made.

[Sassy Squatch]

Week 1 passing touchdowns since 2018:

61: 2021, 2019
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52: 2020
51: 2022
50
49: 2018
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
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37: 2023
36
35: 2024

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 10, 2024

[DJ's left nut]

Fewer practices and pre-season games means offenses are less sharp early in the season.

[dirk digler]

Kirk with some good thoughts on early bad football.

"September football is becoming what August football used to be," @KirkHerbstreit said of NFL's week one.

Why? A fascinating theory on the quarterback position and how it's changing from the high school game and beyond.

*Excellent* This Is Football ahead of Bills-Fins TNF. pic.twitter.com/OS2OUuihRR

— Kevin Clark (@bykevinclark) September 10, 2024

[jjchieffan]

I think that this season, we're going to see Andy put in a class on how to beat the Fangio defense and they will lead the league in scoring in the process. With Brown and Worthy stretching the field and Kelce and Rice in the middle, along with Pacheco in the backfjeld, that defense is going to get beat like a drum. You can't commit to stopping the over the top plays without leaving yourself vulnerable to the short and intermediate plays. Kelce and Rice are YAC monsters. They will feast now that we have the personnel to exploit it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

I think that this season, we're going to see Andy put in a class on how to beat the Fangio defense and they will lead the league in scoring in the process. With Brown and Worthy stretching the field and Kelce and Rice in the middle, along with Pacheco in the backfjeld, that defense is going to get beat like a drum. You can't commit to stopping the over the top plays without leaving yourself vulnerable to the short and intermediate plays. Kelce and Rice are YAC monsters. They will feast now that we have the personnel to exploit it.

Yup.

You saw the gameplan against Baltimore. And once you get Hollywood out there running crossers instead of JuJu running...whatever...you'll see it fully formed.

Being able to create numbers advantages on those drags/crossers that get through the strong side of a hybrid coverage will also be a big deal. So if those backers start to cheat forward on the slants but then have Hollywood running a 12 yard drag behind them but underneath the safeties, those are gonna pop wide open on the back-side of the play.

This defense is NOT going to work against KC. At all.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

For the record, I HATE it. I don't think the Chiefs should be running that cloud coverage much at all. And by and large they don't.

If they score, they score. Fine, whatever.

This defense should be aggressive. It should be physical and attack. If they gash you, let them gash you quickly and get the ball back to your offense. The last thing I want to see is this team getting 55 offensive plays/gm.

Stay aggressive, win quickly or die trying. Create a quick punt, turnover or fast touchdown drive in the process. And in the process you'll be better equipped in the red zone than teams that are so passive (those teams get brutalized inside the 20, IMO). And now you're more likely to turn a 7 into a 3, which is a win for this team.

Teams with good offenses shouldn't be running the Fangio crap.

Nothing worse than watching the other team run 10 minutes of clock to score a touchdown.

[RunKC]

If you’re a LB or bigger safety with athletic traits that can defend the pass well and be even marginal at tackling you’ll get paid and be very valuable in this league.

Chamarri Conner is this guy at 6 ft, 200 lbs with a 6.91 3 cone and can bench 20 reps. You see why they wanted him.

You need those types of corner/safeties in this league to play in the slot or you’ll get torched like Roquan Smith.

[Mecca]

https://youtu.be/7quyQ-N_cYM?si=4QN71ueLLpv91ilj

Give that a look, explains a lot about what happened, it's also funny that it's a year old and a bunch of these guys got fired.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brioni

Eliminate zone like the NBA did

That would be interesting. Mahomes is actually really good vs zone. It may help elite WRs more than elite QBs.

[tk13]

Just more info backing this up. Apparently defenses played 60% two-high safety looks this past weekend. Across the board teams are just playing safe on defense and daring offenses to run the ball more than ever.

"Defenses are making quarterbacks into a bunch of checkdown artists."

—@minakimes on quarterback performance across the league in Week 1 ✍️ pic.twitter.com/rnvGrngHPs

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 12, 2024