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Old 12-11-2012, 09:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread
Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:35 PM   #7186
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Jeremy Guthrie was worth 2.0 bWAR after coming over from Colorado last year. 1.6 fWAR.

On that alone, it was a hugely successful trade.

Fangraphs and Baseball Reference disagree about his value this year. bWAR has him slightly above average.

Even with the negative value Fangraphs assigns Guthrie, he is the 88th best SP in major league baseball according to their rankings. With 30 teams in major league baseball, that makes him basically an average No. 3 starter. That's not great, but it also isn't terrible.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:37 PM   #7187
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For the record... Fangraphs also has Wade Davis at 1.1 WAR according to its rankings.

Silly.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:40 PM   #7188
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
For the record... Fangraphs also has Wade Davis at 1.1 WAR according to its rankings.

Silly.
Does Dayton Moore run Fangraphs by chance?
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:45 PM   #7189
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Ahem ...

Dayton Moore: 'We're not going to back off'
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:46 PM   #7190
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"Our philosophy isn't going to change just because we're six games under," Moore told FOXSportsKansasCity.com.
And nothing says success like being six games under IN YOUR SEVENTH YEAR ON THE JOB.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:52 PM   #7191
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Originally Posted by siberian khatru View Post
And nothing says success like being six games under IN YOUR SEVENTH YEAR ON THE JOB.
He is already balls deep in with the Myers trade and 75Mil payroll. He can't pull out now or he looks like a fool.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:53 PM   #7192
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Originally Posted by siberian khatru View Post
The author speculates that Moore would need "ready-now players" if he deals Santana. I have it on good authority that Moore wants immediate answers at third, catcher, and a starter who isn't far off.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:53 PM   #7193
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Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy View Post
Does Dayton Moore run Fangraphs by chance?
He doesn't.

I think FIP and xFIP are good stats, but not to the same extent Fangraphs does.

It focuses WAY too much on those in its WAR rankings for pitchers, IMO.

Guys that strikeout a decent amount of hitters but who give up a lot of hard contact are going to look better in FIP and xFIP than they really should (see: Hochevar, Luke).

I really think FIP and xFIP should account for contact rates (LD %, HR/FB %) more than they do.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:53 PM   #7194
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
The author speculates that Moore would need "ready-now players" if he deals Santana. I have it on good authority that Moore wants immediate answers at third, catcher, and a starter who isn't far off.
Catcher?

This a Beltran reference?
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:56 PM   #7195
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Catcher?
I think he typed "second" and it came out "catcher."
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:58 PM   #7196
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Catcher?

This a Beltran reference?
Dayton Baird.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:00 PM   #7197
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The author speculates that Moore would need "ready-now players" if he deals Santana. I have it on good authority that Moore wants immediate answers at third, catcher, and a starter who isn't far off.
I see what you did there....

Hopefully, they can get "Giambi-lite" in such a deal.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:00 PM   #7198
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And, FTR, narrowing your scope to "ready-now" players is pretty much a sure way to get ****ed in a trade.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:20 PM   #7199
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What is Santana worth?
This is what I'm wondering.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:27 PM   #7200
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Even with the negative value Fangraphs assigns Guthrie, he is the 88th best SP in major league baseball according to their rankings. With 30 teams in major league baseball, that makes him basically an average No. 3 starter. That's not great, but it also isn't terrible.

Think about what you're saying: he has a (0.5) WAR. Frenchy has a (0.4) WAR. Oh yeah: Frenchy is 68th among all MLB outfielders in plate appearances which basically makes him an average #2 OF in the league.


That's not great but it's also not terrible.
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