Seth Keysor sees what we see...

[DJ's left nut]

https://open.substack.com/pub/mnchie...utm_medium=web

I don't typically re-post his stuff because I think you want to support guys trying to freelance like he does. But I think this contributes to conversation enough to be worthwhile.

Spoiler!

Following the Chiefs losing their first game of the season to Josh Allen and the Bills, a great deal of the discourse regarding the game centered around protection. Or lack thereof.

The problem, the narrative went, was that Buffalo was able to get such consistent pressure on Patrick Mahomes that the offense wasn’t able to function. When I say “narrative” it generally has a negative connotation here, so I’d like to note that this was my opinion watching the game live as well. It certainly appeared that Mahomes spent much of the day under duress with crushed pockets and/or pressure that forced him to bail and scramble (often into the area of a spy).

However, after re-watching the game I started to have my doubts. Out of curiosity, I asked Chiefs fans on Twitter/X what they thought the primary issue was against the Bills. The results were about what I expected based on the general conversation surrounding the game.

It’s worth noting many replied saying it was a combination of factors, but the largest share of the “primary” blame fell on tackles Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor. Following that was Mahomes, then the receivers, then last the interior OL. There were also plenty of “write-ins” for Matt Nagy and Andy Reid, essentially blaming the play calling. I’d thought that the issues were more the OL in general, then receivers, then Mahomes (in that order) upon my first viewing of the game.

But upon re-watching, something nagged at me watching a few snaps, especially early, and I started to doubt my initial impression of the game (I cannot state strongly enough how different games often look upon review when compared to watching it live, with emotion and a condensed view affecting things). Snaps like this made me wonder if the entire narrative surrounding the game was mistaken.



We’ll come back to this individual snap in a moment, but the short story is that I started to seriously doubt as to whether the narrative about the amount of pressure the Bills were able to generate was accurate. And so (you guessed it) to the film I went to try and find answers.

What made the most sense was to re-watch every dropback on all-22, charting plays in which there was pressure on Mahomes (for any reason) and then looking at the situation and why that pressure occurred. I was most interested in things prior to the final drive of the game because those types of desperation drives (down 2 scores with 2 minutes to go) are prone to pressure every single snap given the defense has no fear of the run game whatsoever and the offense is limited in its available play calls. The biggest question I wanted to answer the question of “what’s the problem” in as accurate a way as possible when it came to the offense facing pressure vs the Bills.

I’ve now done that, and I won’t keep you in suspense. The most consistent problem wasn’t the tackles (though they of course had a few bad snaps). It wasn’t the receivers (though they, too, had a few bad snaps for sure). And it wasn’t the play designs. The biggest two problems on plays the Chiefs faced pressure? Patrick Mahomes and Trey Smith.

That’s a tough pill to swallow regarding two great players, but it is what it is. Let’s talk about it.

It’s worth noting that prior to the final drive of the game (again, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to look at that drive as something indicative of the offense as a whole given the situation), the Chiefs had 11 plays where pressure appeared to affect how things ended up. That’s obviously too many plays for the offense to function well, and again, And I understand the instinct to blame the tackles or receivers given they’ve been talked about a great deal this season as problematic (for good reason).

But the biggest issue early in the game wasn’t the receivers or tackles. It was Mahomes itself. This was glaringly true the first two drives, before he tightened things up. I’ll talk about an individual snap as an example, then talk about the numbers.

Let’s go back to the play above, Mahomes’ pick to start the game. At the time, the throw itself frustrated me, but I understand how many times he’s been able to make that exact type of play and why he’d try it. The problem is it didn’t NEED to come to that. Re-watch the play and pay attention to the pocket Mahomes has, then look at what happens with the coverage right after his quick pump fake to Travis Kelce.

Here’s what the field looks like at that point. Remember, you always want to account for how guys are moving in a screen shot because of how fast defenders recover. But the thing is, Mahomes has some terrific options here.


The short story is that the Bengals appear to be playing some variant of cover 3, and multiple defenders jump routes they shouldn’t. Three different zone defenders converge on Kelce with the pump fake, leaving Gray coming wide open over the middle of the field (where he correctly sits down). Further, the CB covering where Hopkins’ route is taking him (bottom of the screen), for some reason, tries to jump a shallow route and gets taken totally out of position so that a throw over the top is easy money. The deep safety in centerfield is WAY back and too far up to affect either potential throwing lane.

And the pocket? The pocket is fine. Morris has directed his rusher around him, and none of the interior blockers are losing. But rather than keeping his eyes down the field, Mahomes drops them to the rush and starts to run forward right into pressure. This is clearly what the Bills were hoping he’d do, and a defender is able to hit him as he starts to throw (late) to Gray.

If Mahomes just stayed in the pocket and went through his reads on-time, he’d have a chunk gain to Gray that has huge YAC potential given how far back the safety is. Or he’d have the option to go over the top to Hopkins for a chunk gain. Instead, he gets happy feet and the end result is a throw under duress that he created. Mahomes is literally the best quarterback I’ve ever seen play the game, but this was a horrendous snap for him, and demonstrative of him playing “sped up” when he doesn’t need to.

All right, let’s talk numbers. In 11 pass plays (again, prior to the final drive) where the Chiefs faced pressure, here’s how I divvied up “blame.”

Mahomes - 3 plays

Trey Smith - 2 plays

Trey and Creed Humphrey - 1 play

Trey and Jawaan Taylor - 1 play

Receivers covered - 2

Wanya Morris and WR’s - 1

Unknown - 1 (This was a play where the world, including me, blamed Carson Steele for INSTANT pressure, but former Chiefs’ All-Pro RT Mitch Schwartz has stated that’s not accurate and that no one was really “wrong” on the play. I don’t know what went wrong on this play if it’s not a protection failure by Steele, but I obviously believe Mitch)

Notice a pattern to these plays? Two names crop up the most, and those are names we’re not used to blaming for problems with protection. If I were to pic one individual to take the most blame, it’d be Smith given his involvement in four of the plays. But between Smith and Mahomes, they ended up mostly or all-the-way accountable for 7 of 11 pressure plays.

Let’s talk about Mahomes a little more, because it’s such a rare occurrence that he’d be part of the issue. The way in which it’s happening is that he’s simultaneously playing too sped up AND hesitant. What do I mean by that? I mean that his pocket presence is too sped up in terms of his willingness to bail (even when, as the numbers I laid out above show, he’s not being constantly harassed the way the narrative goes). The above play is an example of that. The other issue has been a relative lack of aggression even on throws where he’s got a window.

The second dropback of the game (remember, Mahomes’ issues were mostly early, then he cleaned it up considerably) shows a good example of this. It’s not necessarily a BAD snap, and it could’ve resulted in some yardage, but it’s demonstrative of Mahomes being a bit gunshy.

People in real time blamed Taylor for Mahomes taking a hit here, but watch how the play unfolds paying attention to Xavier Worthy and the surrounding coverage.



This is a designed shot play to Worthy with a checkdown built in place to Hardman (who follows Worthy’s motion in a pretty cool look) should the boundary CB follow Worthy deep (a good design to take advantage of the zone the Bills play here). In the meantime, the interior zone defender is tracking Kelce’s movement, as the Bills clearly were intent on Kelce not once again wrecking their day.

The underneath CB does start to follow Worthy, but not quickly, and with the deep safety being where he is there’s a “hole shot” for Mahomes to take here. If the ball comes out on time on a rope, the underneath CB and the safety hanging over the top have no shot at it and the linebacker isn’t even looking. This is a first down with potential for a lot more if Worthy is able to make the safety miss. For those who want to blame offensive design, it takes advantage of this EXACT coverage look.

But Mahomes doesn’t pull the trigger. Instead, he waits an extra beat and takes the “safe” throw to Hardman. A defensive lineman is able to knock it down unfortunately, but even if it had been complete it would’ve been something like a 5-10 yard gain. And because he has to hold the ball longer, Taylor’s defender breaks free (it’s over a full 3 seconds into the snap) and lays a hit on Mahomes. In other words, holding the ball longer to take a checkdown rather than the shot resulted in pressure, not the aggressive intermediate shot play.

(NOTE/EDIT- As I’ve looked at this play, there’s a possibility that Worthy wasn’t one of the primary reads and is more utilized as a field stretcher to try and create space for Kelce underneath. That would of course change the analysis. Possibilities like that should always be considered when making determinations as to who should’ve done what and when)

And that’s the way it works sometimes with pressure. People often say that Mahomes doesn’t have time to throw the ball deep, but the reality is that with designed shot plays throwing the checkdown gives the defense MORE time to come after you, not less. Taylor isn’t to blame for the hit here. Mahomes’ lack of aggression is.

Of course, as I said earlier, Mahomes tightened things up CONSIDERABLY after a rough start (2 of the 3 plays he got sole blame came on his first 2 dropbacks). So what happened after that? Well, Trey Smith had a really, really rough day in pass protection, losing 1x1 several different times in a way that blew up a play.



Here, the play is basically ended before it can really start. Trey takes an aggressive set and ends up getting his hands swatted and his momentum taken advantage of. That leads to the interior pass rusher getting penetration before Creed can come help, and fat enough that Hunt isn’t able to take a good position to slow it down. Mahomes has no choice but to bail out here. He ended up making an UNBELIEVABLE throw for a nice gain, but that’s not really the point in terms of figuring out where pressure was coming from.

Smith had a few different missed stunts in the game (one of which, on the final drive, I’m not even counting here but ultimately resulted in a hold and a converted scramble keeping hope alive becoming 4th and 13), and just generally did not create a solid pocket with consistency in a way that affected several plays that could have been chunk gains. While people were quick to blame the tackles on several plays where pressure got home, a major part of the problem was Trey as well.

The entire OL took a few turns with some struggles (although Trey was the culprit most responsible for direct pressure plays). Taylor overall wasn’t responsible for most of the pressure that came on the day, but was a big part of a systemic failure on a 3rd and 10 design that had a chance for big yards.

The below play Morris took a lot of heat, but he’s not really the issue when you consider depth of pocket and how Taylor and Smith both lose in a way that prevents any stepping up. It’s also not an issue of the scheme or receivers.



First, note that Mahomes dropback takes him 11 yards behind the line of scrimmage. That’s generally deeper than what the Chiefs aim for with their pocket, and it gives the pass rusher an angle to Mahomes (because Morris thinks he’s blocking for depth of 9ish yards instead). So Mahomes didn’t help himself here.

However, he should have been ale to step up away from the rusher and wasn’t. And that’s because both Taylor and Smith get beaten and crush the pocket overall (Taylor has the worse snap of the two here, but the pocket losing integrity is on both of them). What really makes it a bummer is that, once again, the play call correctly anticipates the cover-2 look from the defense and sends Worthy into a shot play “hole” in the defense as Kelce holds other defenders underneath.

If the pocket holds up here, Mahomes has a ton of room to place a throw to Worthy that he can haul in without taking a big shot, OR even have a chance to do some YAC work against the loan deep safety on his side of the field. But instead, because of the pocket integrity, he can’t.

I show this play as demonstrative of a couple of things. First, for all the conversation about Smith and Mahomes, the reality is that other players had their “bad” snaps as well. And when you’ve got a situation where you have multiple people with bad snaps, that spreads across the entire game (especially when you have a limited number of drives, a direct result of the more “ball control” game the Chiefs have been playing this season) and takes away chances to score. It was Mahomes early. It was Trey on multiple snaps. It was Taylor/Morris on a couple. It was even Creed on one. And on a few (but nearly as many as the narrative) the receivers just didn’t separate well against man coverage. You combine ALL those problems and you’ve got nearly a dozen plays killed.

So what does this all tell us? Well, the short answer is that against Buffalo two of the Chiefs’ stars didn’t play like stars on some snaps, and it compounded the problem rather than helping solve it. In fact, it at times CREATED the problem. Mahomes will need to be better against Buffalo next time (I’ll get to his full film review later this week), and so will Trey. Those are foundational guys within the offense. If those two had played better, the domino effect it would’ve had (continuing failed drives) would have likely resulted in a much more successful game.

In other words, some of the narratives about the Buffalo game just aren’t correct. The idea that the offense is broken in terms of route combinations and open receivers doesn’t really hold up under scrutiny. The plays were there to be made throughout the game until the last drive (where, again, things change given the situation of being down 2 scores with that little time left). Worthy is (I hate that I’m beating this drum so often) finding some space down the field in part due to the calls. And while the Taylor and Morris haven’t been perfect, they were doing enough against Buffalo to not be considered the culprits (Taylor played a pretty decent game overall in particular as a pass protector).

In short, the non-stars were doing their part against Buffalo as often as you’d expect. It was a couple of the stars who failed the most. They’ll need to clean that up if they want to beat the best teams in the league. I have no doubt, based on everything we’ve seen over the years, that they will.

It's what many of us have been saying - those folks that are killing the OT play just aren't paying that much attention. Yes, it's been bad at times. No, it's not the primary problem for a great deal many of these games.

On Sunday the issues were overwhelmingly Trey Smith and Patrick Mahomes. The pass protection issues have extended well beyond the OT play. And Patrick Mahomes is the single biggest culprit to the misfiring offense (at least he was in Buffalo and that was just a continuation of what we've seen this season, IMO)

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Chiefs aren’t playing Hopkins a ton bc they want that 4th rd pick.



I know that sounds dumb but they care a lot about that kinda stuff.

And.....

He's old.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

When Kingsley is allowing straight line blind side tackles at Mahomes' back, you don't think that's going to have consequences going forward for the rest of the game in how Mahomes plays the position?

He’s played 23% of the snaps. When the line holds if the QB can’t make a play because four weeks ago the LT had some bad snaps then that’s a QB problem. We know this because the QB is missing open receivers from clean pockets at far too high of a rate right now.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Chiefs aren’t playing Hopkins a ton bc they want that 4th rd pick.



I know that sounds dumb but they care a lot about that kinda stuff.

Am I reading something wrong here?

The sentence says the Chiefs have to make the SB and Hopkins plays 60% of the snaps. I'm assuming the snap count is referring to the actual SB and not the season.

[Rainbarrel]

Jackson needs to slap a bitch, dad needs to down a fifth and Britney needs to trigger social media

[O.city]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

If you think Mahomes is playing poorly, you need to watch more QBs play in this league.

Well sure. I’d think a guy some wanna call the greatest of all time might have a higher standard though

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Just painful to watch. I have all the faith in the world that he can lock in and flip the switch because he did it last year with a worse supporting cast. But damn it's frustrating to see Mahomes essentially play just like Alex Smith once did.

Stop playing to your defense. That isn't gonna cut it this year like it did last year. You do have legitimate weapons and help on the way. No one gives a **** if you throw some more interceptions - you already are doing that by playing conservative.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Just painful to watch. I have all the faith in the world that he can lock in and flip the switch because he did it last year with a worse supporting cast. But damn it's frustrating to see Mahomes essentially play just like Alex Smith once did.

Stop playing to your defense. That isn't gonna cut it this year like it did last year. You do have legitimate weapons and help on the way. No one gives a **** if you throw some more interceptions - you already are doing that by playing conservative.

The switch he really flipped was cutting out the interceptions and not throwing to Moore or Toney last post season. It took a pretty Herculean effort from the defense to win it all last season. Of the last 8 Super Bowl winners we scored the fewest total points and fewest ppg. Even with having an extra game on many of those other winning teams. That’s not going to be repeatable this year.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

When Kingsley is allowing straight line blind side tackles at Mahomes' back, you don't think that's going to have consequences going forward for the rest of the game in how Mahomes plays the position?

Kingsley has played like 1.5 games total. If Mahomes is THAT messed up because of it, Mahomes has a problem.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think he's stretched thin. These guys are human.

Between off-the field obligations (sponsorships, celebrity status, team friggen ownership) and being a parent, guy has a LOT going on.

It's probably just a little harder to stay completely locked in during the season than it used to be.

Doesn't mean he can't dial it back in for the post-season, but if he gets into the habit of feeling phantom pressure, that's gonna be harder to break.

I have started wondering about this as well lately. Wondering if he is putting in the time on his craft to improve. I am really hoping one of these offseasons he will dedicate himself to improve his deep passing because honestly it is the weakest part of his game.

[dirk digler]

oh I just saw this Sam McDowell article today about this.

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/sp...295916224.html

This is going to seem like nitpicking.

It’s not.

The Chiefs are 9-1 after a loss in Buffalo on Sunday, and thus still occupy the top spot in the AFC heading into the final third of the season. It’s fine. It’s better than fine, actually, and it’s certainly better than this time a year ago. That’s why this might seem hypercritical.

But there’s an issue that keeps popping up during the Chiefs’ games — significant enough that those nine wins could’ve come a bit easier, and significant enough that the one loss might have never happened.

The Kansas City Chiefs still cannot hit the deep shot.

Patrick Mahomes cannot hit the deep shot.

The organization spent an entire offseason — the draft, free agency, scheme evaluation and summer and training camp practices, all of it — trying to improve their downfield passing game. Here are the effects of that concentration in its most succinct and recent form:

Whiff.

Whiff.

Whiff.

A year ago, the Chiefs threw fewer downfield shots than any other season since Patrick Mahomes arrived, per data on PFF. Naturally, they completed fewer of them, too. And yet for all of the conversation to change that last offseason, they are throwing the ball 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage half as frequently as they did last year. Only 6.4% of Mahomes’ pass attempts are deep, by far the lowest percentage in the league.

There’s too much risk-aversion from all involved— that whole gunslinger thing doesn’t reflect reality. We saw offensive coordinator Matt Nagy on the sideline praising Mahomes for taking a shot in Los Angeles, even when it didn’t appear open. That was two months ago.

Where did it go?

Actually, for the last five weeks, it’s been right there, and the Chiefs are just flat-out whiffing on the opportunities.

In sequential order:

• In Week 7 in San Francisco, the Chiefs opened the second half with a deep shot to Worthy. Mahomes had a perfect pocket to step and throw, and he overshot Worthy, who had so much room that 49ers safety Malik Mustapha turned and looked at his teammates with the same question you might have had at home. How did he get so open?

• In Week 9 against Tampa Bay, Worthy adjusted his route after noticing space in the secondary, and Mahomes found him open along the sideline. Worthy, though, inexplicably caught the ball in his gut and trotted backwards out of bounds before securing it, costing him an easy score.

• A week later against Denver, Worthy properly adjusted his fly pattern to give himself more space in the field of play, and he had two steps on the last line of defense, but the Mahomes throw sailed out of bounds for yet another incompletion.

• On Sunday in Buffalo, Mahomes had Worthy on a deep pass down the seam. Mahomes had to sidestep some pressure and whipped the throw too far to his left, which sent Worthy toward the sideline. Worthy couldn’t drag his back foot for the completion. Which, by the way, it’s been a minute since we’ve seen a wide receiver have such an estranged relationship with the sideline. Still, let’s not sugarcoat it: That’s a touchdown with the right throw.

It’s easier to blame the rookie than a Hall of Fame quarterback, but three of those four misses fall squarely on Mahomes. Most NFL quarterbacks complete all of those throws, yet somehow the league’s best cannot complete hardly any of them, mired in some sort of long-throw slump.

The alarming part is that he missed in just about every way possible — pushing one throw too far right, yanking another too far left, and somehow finding a way to overthrow the man who recorded the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL Combine history.

“I feel like if I hit those shots, the offense looks completely different,” Mahomes said four days before missing Worthy in Buffalo.

Well, let’s look at exactly how different.

Those four plays — those four must-be-completed throws — came on drives in which the Chiefs didn’t end up scoring. In fact, they would total less than 10 yards combined after the misses.

So what would it look like if they had hit those shots instead?

Instead of being ranked 16th in yards, the Chiefs’ offense would be one yard per game shy of seventh — two spots higher than they were a year ago. Instead of ranking 11th in points per game, they would be sixth.

It is the literal difference between progression and regression.

For the team.

And the player.

Mahomes’ passer rating would jump from 90.2 to 100.1 with those four completions alone. He’d move to the top-five in the league in both yards and touchdowns.

It’s the difference in talking about a quarterback in the thick of the NFL’s Most Valuable Player race and wondering what’s going on with the Chiefs’ offense.

This is what’s going on with the Chiefs’ offense. Everything else is distracting from the central point. A few weeks ago, we outlined how the Chiefs have become better at figuring out a path to the end zone when the chunk plays aren’t there — how they’ve sustained extraordinarily long drives.

But now the chunk plays are there on occasion, and maybe even a more frequent occasion lately. Teams have adjusted to the Chiefs running the ball well. (KC is third in the NFL in rushing success rate.) The defenses have focused on Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins underneath.

The back end of opposing defenses are showing some vulnerability, and yet the Chiefs cannot connect the world’s best quarterback and one of the NFL’s fastest wide receivers on the deep pass — even when it’s right there for them.

It’s maddening. It’s curious. It’s, well, tiring.

The Chiefs cannot afford to have this conversation every week, or we probably won’t feel the need to have it in February.

Sure, Mahomes had pressure in his face on one incompletion; he probably saw Worthy too late. Sure, there’s an inexperienced wide receiver on the other end. But these are wide-open throws, in NFL terms, and you don’t get many of those.

“We can practice it all we want, but until we start doing it in the game, there’s nothing more I can really say about it,” Mahomes said, and, yes, the frustration was as evident as that reads.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The switch he really flipped was cutting out the interceptions and not throwing to Moore or Toney last post season. It took a pretty Herculean effort from the defense to win it all last season. Of the last 8 Super Bowl winners we scored the fewest total points and fewest ppg. Even with having an extra game on many of those other winning teams. That’s not going to be repeatable this year.

I like this current defense just fine, I even like Nazeeh Johnson more than I would say the vast majority of folks - this defense is NOT what it was last year. They had lightning in a bottle a bit there with how healthy they were and seemingly having almost every player in or entering their prime.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I like this current defense just fine, I even like Nazeeh Johnson more than I would say the vast majority of folks - this defense is NOT what it was last year. They had lightning in a bottle a bit there with how healthy they were and seemingly having almost every player in or entering their prime.

What's frustrating is that the run defense this year looks a lot better than last year. They just can't make anything happen on third down. No pressure, coverage holes, you name it.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well sure. I’d think a guy some wanna call the greatest of all time might have a higher standard though

I'd rather he bring his MVP level out for the playoffs myself, like he does every single time.

Can't say I give a shit whether Lamar Jackson is playing better than him in November.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Kingsley has played like 1.5 games total. If Mahomes is THAT messed up because of it, Mahomes has a problem.

That was just one example in the Denver game, but Wanya is not good for his position either and that has clearly had an effect as well.

Personally, I'd rather Mahomes lean on the side of caution than have him standing in and taking huge hits in regular season games. Our season is definitively done if he gets seriously hurt. His health is the most important thing in any given regular season game we play for that reason.

We can win a SB with Mahomes with a 9-8 record. We can't win a SB without Mahomes and a 16-1 record.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The switch he really flipped was cutting out the interceptions and not throwing to Moore or Toney last post season. It took a pretty Herculean effort from the defense to win it all last season. Of the last 8 Super Bowl winners we scored the fewest total points and fewest ppg. Even with having an extra game on many of those other winning teams. That’s not going to be repeatable this year.

Nonsense. The guy had QBRs of 88.8, 91.5, 91.3, and 76.4 in four playoff games last season against maybe the toughest competition anybody has ever faced in a postseason run. You can easily make the argument it was the best he'd ever played in a 4 game stretch.

That didn't simply happen because of "cutting out the interceptions" or not throwing to Skyy Moore. He elevated his level of play significantly, which he has shown the ability to do consistently in the playoffs in his career.