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Old 09-23-2024, 12:51 PM  
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DVOA and Postseason odds tracking
Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

3rd Ovr.
9th Off.
4th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds


96%.2 chance AFC West title
76.4% chance 1 seed (1st)
64.9% chance AFCCG App (1st)
38.6% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.7% chance SB Win (2nd)
5.7% chance 17-0 (1st)
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Old 10-28-2024, 10:25 AM   #46
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Old 10-29-2024, 09:57 AM   #47
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Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

4th Ovr.
9th Off.
4th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds


94% chance AFC West title
64.8% 1 seed (1st)
58.7% chance AFCCG App (1st)
34.6% AFCCG Win (1st)
19.9% chance SB Win (1st)
3.6% chance 17-0 (1st)
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Old 10-29-2024, 10:01 AM   #48
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Yeah - that all feels about right.

Buffalo is really the only team I think might get past us for the 1 seed and Houston, having not played us yet either, would be the other one. I guess the Steelers have a shot at us but c'mon - it's the Steelers.

The Chargers, Colts and Bengals all fighting for that last playoff spot is just annoying to me. Why the hell did we go to 7 playoff teams again? Lord that's a useless playoff spot.
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Old 10-29-2024, 11:17 AM   #49
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The Steelers would worry me a bit more than most at the moment, tbh.

Obviously they’re a long ways off but Watt would likely cause Mahomes to have one of those off games worrying about him for an entire 60 minutes.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:00 PM   #50
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The Steelers would worry me a bit more than most at the moment, tbh.

Obviously they’re a long ways off but Watt would likely cause Mahomes to have one of those off games worrying about him for an entire 60 minutes.
One guy is not enough. If that's the only reason to worry, there is no reason to worry.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:06 PM   #51
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Assuming there isn't an absurd resurgence and historical run from the Bengals to meet us in the playoffs, there's really only one team I look at and say "man, that team could beat us on an even field," and that's the Lions.

That team looks like an absolute juggernaut.

I assume we face the Ravens in the AFCCG again, but Henry can't do much against this run defense, and literally the only thing keeping the Ravens in that game was Likely going off against a completely unprepared Nick Bolton.

I'd bet on KC 7 times out of 10 against the Texans.
I'd bet on KC 7 times out of 10 against the Ravens.
I'd bet on KC 6 times out of 10 against the Bills.
I'd bet on KC maybe a little better than 5 times out of 10 against the Bengals playing at their best.

The Lions, though. That's the only team in this league that spooks me.

The Packers and Rams would give us a good fight, but we have more solutions for them than they would have for us. We should own the Eagles and the 49ers.

The Lions though, that has the feel of a true 50/50 game. If they had Hutch, I may even give them the lean. Buuuuuuut they don't.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:07 PM   #52
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Not scared of a team with a QB that can't move. Chiefs would beat the shit out of the Lions.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:09 PM   #53
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Not scored of a team with a QB that can't move. Chiefs would beat the shit out of the Lions.
I mean, Goff is 2-0 against us.

Albeit that's hard to put much weight on that, isn't it?

Goff played the 2018 Chiefs _efense, and Kadarius Toney single-handedly gave the last Lions game away while the Chiefs pressured Goff nonstop without Chris Jones on the field.

The Lions, on paper, have an outstanding offensive line and are flush with great weapons. They have a lot of talent on defense, but the entire scheme was prefaced with Hutch being a game-wrecker.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:10 PM   #54
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I mean, Goff is 2-0 against us.

Albeit that's hard to put much weight on that, isn't it?

Goff played the 2018 Chiefs _efense, and Kadarius Toney single-handedly gave the last Lions game away when the Chiefs pressured him nonstop without Chris Jones on the field.

The Lions, on paper, have an outstanding offensive line and are flush with great weapons. They have a lot of talent on defense, but the entire scheme was prefaced with Hutch being a game-wrecker.
Chiefs by 10. Goff cries when Jones mounts him every other snap.

Spags loves to blitz immobile QBs.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:52 PM   #55
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One guy is not enough. If that's the only reason to worry, there is no reason to worry.
Watt is like Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson on steroids. Both of those guys have proven that they can single-handedly wreck our gameplan. Watt also has the privilege of being surrounded by more talent on that side of the ball.

On the offensive side, the run game doesn’t worry me. Russell Wilson looks pretty decent and I worry about the deep shots against our depleted secondary.
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Old 10-29-2024, 12:59 PM   #56
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We've handled Watt fine before.

We will again.
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Old 10-29-2024, 01:21 PM   #57
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Yeah, we most likely will..

I’m just saying, they’re my AFC dark horse at the moment.
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Old 10-29-2024, 01:24 PM   #58
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Wilson won't look decent against actual good defenses. Not worried about the Steelers at all.
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Old 10-29-2024, 01:24 PM   #59
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Yeah, we most likely will..

I’m just saying, they’re my AFC dark horse at the moment.
They're more likely to play spoiler against the Texans or Ravens or Bills than harm one hair on Mahomes head.

In fact, with Buffalo's defense being shit, the Steelers seem like a team that could easily take them out.
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Old 10-29-2024, 02:42 PM   #60
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No chance the Russ Steelers beat Mahomes and KC.

I'd give the Chiefs an 8/10 chance to beat the Steelers in the playoffs. I'm not even sure it would matter which field we play on.

The only thing the Steelers have that can put points on us would be Pickens -- we don't really have anyone who can hang with him. But that OL can't block us, and Spags owns Russ.

On the other side of the ball, assuming we sport a January lineup of Kelce/Hopkins/Brown/Worthy/JuJu/Pacheco/Gray, we should be able to put up 24-27 points.
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