Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

It isn’t gold.

I personally agree, but when people who are not the normal gold pimping "sky is falling" type begin discussing it I tend to believe there is something to be gleaned from it. Even if I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

Has mid level land started to correct in your area?

[scho63]

99% of those retail companies that went bankrupt suck. Most didn't change fast enough or adapt.

Brooks Brothers??? How many people these days still wear a suit and tie? 2% of the workforce?

JCPenneys fate was done once they hired a clueless technology guy to run a retail business. Ron Johnson killed JCPenney.

SurLaTable-only one pompous retail store can over charge for kitchen wares like Williams Sonoma and that is Williams Sonoma.

[petegz28]

Gold is good as a trade not an investment. It pays $0 in dividends and you essentially have to time it. I've never understood the gold trade from a panic perspective. It isn't like companies are going to simply go from accepting $'s to gold. There's no established commerce with gold and most people don't own any gold.

That doesn't mean there isn't money to be made in gold. It's trading up lately and peopel who got in are making $'s if they take their profits.

But from a global "panic trade" perspective if the day ever comes that US $'s are no longer any good anywhere you'll do better owning seeds and crops and livestock than you will gold.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by scho63

99% of those retail companies that went bankrupt suck. Most didn't change fast enough or adapt.

Brooks Brothers??? How many people these days still wear a suit and tie? 2% of the workforce?

JCPenneys fate was done once they hired a clueless technology guy to run a retail business. Ron Johnson killed JCPenney.

SurLaTable-only one pompous retail store can over charge for kitchen wares like Williams Sonoma and that is Williams Sonoma.

Penny's was always one of my favorite stores but yeah the management ****ed it all to hell.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ghak99

I personally agree, but when people who are not the normal gold pimping "sky is falling" type begin discussing it I tend to believe there is something to be gleaned from it. Even if I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

Has mid level land started to correct in your area?

Ag land? IMO yes.

Valuation is a tough out in my part of the world. There is a lot of variability in soil type and since we are in the margins those differences are magnified, making true comparative sales difficult. Second there aren’t a ton of sales. So it’s really tough to get at, at least with a degree of confidence fat boy is comfortable with.

But yeah. It’s backed off. To what degree is arguable. In point of fact, I’m about to have that argument with a landlord this fall. Yay me.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Gold is good as a trade not an investment. It pays $0 in dividends and you essentially have to time it. I've never understood the gold trade from a panic perspective. It isn't like companies are going to simply go from accepting $'s to gold. There's no established commerce with gold and most people don't own any gold.

That doesn't mean there isn't money to be made in gold. It's trading up lately and peopel who got in are making $'s if they take their profits.

But from a global "panic trade" perspective if the day ever comes that US $'s are no longer any good anywhere you'll do better owning seeds and crops and livestock than you will gold.

Great post. It behaves like a commodity. And I don’t see anyone rushing in to invest in corn or wheat.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by ghak99

I personally agree, but when people who are not the normal gold pimping "sky is falling" type begin discussing it I tend to believe there is something to be gleaned from it. Even if I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

Has mid level land started to correct in your area?

You missed your timing to make money in gold. That ship has sailed this year. Pete nailed it. It’s a good place to profit from trading when the trend is right but it’s not a long term investment. GLD and TLT have been pretty crazy this year but that trend won’t continue much longer IMO.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Ag land? IMO yes.

Valuation is a tough out in my part of the world. There is a lot of variability in soil type and since we are in the margins those differences are magnified, making true comparative sales difficult. Second there aren’t a ton of sales. So it’s really tough to get at, at least with a degree of confidence fat boy is comfortable with.

But yeah. It’s backed off. To what degree is arguable. In point of fact, I’m about to have that argument with a landlord this fall. Yay me.

There have been a couple guys here retire at ~60 in the last few months. Totally quit while healthy and rent out their 2-3k owned chuck, which is basically unheard of as most operate well into the 70s if health allows.

While my approaches on what is basically average land with average to below average soil tests have been received well, the bankers and the owners are not coming close when trying to make an offer on a smaller pieces. I kicked a few tires and the leases that come up for bid with each presidential election year are much softer than they have been in the past. It just doesn't seem to be making its way back to purchase prices though.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ghak99

There have been a couple guys here retire at ~60 in the last few months. Totally quit while healthy and rent out their 2-3k owned chuck, which is basically unheard of as most operate well into the 70s if health allows.

While my approaches on what is basically average land with average to below average soil tests have been received well, the bankers and the owners are not coming close when trying to make an offer on a smaller pieces. I kicked a few tires and the leases that come up for bid with each presidential election year are much softer than they have been in the past. It just doesn't seem to be making its way back to purchase prices though.

Similar. I’m bucking the trend on cash rent. I’m trying to get landlords to go to sharecrop. Then it’s about the relationship and not overbidding the next guy. But yeah. Rents are falling more than land prices at least I think so.

My anecdotal perception is that landlords are buying land, not farmers as much. Owning land is certainly profitable, and I’m guessing it’s easier to come up with the cash whereas we have a lot of places for it.

But yeah, prices are coming down, but not as much as I’d like or what puts me in the market for outside sales.

[Rain Man]

So I've been thinking.

We're hearing about progress on vaccines. They're not here yet, but it seems like just a matter of time, right?

If that's the case, then is there a fortune to be made in all of the battered cruise, airline, hotel, and tourism stocks? It might be a year away, but if we want to catch the full upside when do we start buying? It seems like the risk is buying and then having them go bankrupt before the bounceback, but there are probably a lot of companies that aren't at risk of bankruptcy in the near term.

What do you say? Buy now? Soon? Or is it too risky to ever buy?

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

So I've been thinking.

We're hearing about progress on vaccines. They're not here yet, but it seems like just a matter of time, right?

If that's the case, then is there a fortune to be made in all of the battered cruise, airline, hotel, and tourism stocks? It might be a year away, but if we want to catch the full upside when do we start buying? It seems like the risk is buying and then having them go bankrupt before the bounceback, but there are probably a lot of companies that aren't at risk of bankruptcy in the near term.

What do you say? Buy now? Soon? Or is it too risky to ever buy?

With a vaccine projected to be available anywhere from December to February (Moderna is already in phase 3), I’d get around Thanksgiving at the latest.

Think we can all agree that once a vaccine is confirmed the market will go up quite a bit just based on that news alone.

There’s been a few 500+ pt days from vaccine news. I imagine confirmation will be very fun for investors.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

So I've been thinking.

We're hearing about progress on vaccines. They're not here yet, but it seems like just a matter of time, right?

If that's the case, then is there a fortune to be made in all of the battered cruise, airline, hotel, and tourism stocks? It might be a year away, but if we want to catch the full upside when do we start buying? It seems like the risk is buying and then having them go bankrupt before the bounceback, but there are probably a lot of companies that aren't at risk of bankruptcy in the near term.

What do you say? Buy now? Soon? Or is it too risky to ever buy?

Yes. Buy the F out of known, strong companies such as Southwest (LUV). It may even be worth throwing a few bucks into struggling business like American Airlines (AAL).

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

So I've been thinking.

We're hearing about progress on vaccines. They're not here yet, but it seems like just a matter of time, right?

If that's the case, then is there a fortune to be made in all of the battered cruise, airline, hotel, and tourism stocks? It might be a year away, but if we want to catch the full upside when do we start buying? It seems like the risk is buying and then having them go bankrupt before the bounceback, but there are probably a lot of companies that aren't at risk of bankruptcy in the near term.

What do you say? Buy now? Soon? Or is it too risky to ever buy?

I agree 10000% .when this blows over things will go back to normal. The Spanish flu blew over . right!

[Rain Man]

So who's guaranteed to survive until we're back to normal, and whose business model won't be permanently damaged?

There are three big cruise lines. I've read that NCLH is the weakest, and that CUK might be stronger than RCL. So CUK?

In the airline space, is it LUV? I don't pay attention to the others, though I feel like LUV will survive if any of them do.

Who in the hotel space? I've got MAR, which we know will survive. I've also got PEB, which worries me but it's down so far that I can't bear to sell it.

I've got some LVS stock in the casino space. I have a hunch that it's going to survive, and I bet casinos will have a fast recovery.

So where should we put our money to get rich? I'm thinking that MAR is a low-risk, high-reward bet.

[scho63]

Everybody is touting gold.........SHORT IT!