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Old 04-17-2025, 02:31 PM  
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Call Your Shot: Who will be the Chiefs first pick in the 2025 NFL draft?
I'm going with Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio St.

I think the Chiefs would prefer a guy like Walter Nolen or Derrick Harmon falls into their lap, but I don't think that happens next Thursday night, or at least I'm not going to get me hopes up.

A lot of people will not like this pick, due to the injury risk, but the Chiefs take a swing at a T that otherwise would never be in that late 1st round range.

Side note: I could also see Josh Conerly being the pick and could've just as easily chose him. Upside isn't as high, but he's probably safer given his health.
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:03 AM   #511
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Top 10 talents that play wr? That....doesn't seem to happen much, especially these days.
Brian Thomas Jr, Jared Verse, Quinyon Mitchell, Trent McDuffie. Happens every year.

They fall bc about 1/3 of the teams aren’t drafting BPA. They’re drafting to save their job.

Big run on specific players pushes guys down the board. We saw it last year when so many teams took QB and OL. This year there’s gonna be a shit load of DL and OL picked early pushing these guys down the board.

And somebody will take Shedeur or Dart too
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:05 AM   #512
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What does he NOT do at an extremely high level?

Use Rice as a baseline. Find me anything that Rice did better coming out of college than Burden.

I can't find one. They played an extremely similar style - Burden just does all those things a little bit better.

Yeah I mean, do the 2023 draft over and Rice goes in the top 20 no question

So we have a player in Burden who looks better than Rice coming out.


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Old 04-24-2025, 10:09 AM   #513
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What does he NOT do at an extremely high level?

Use Rice as a baseline. Find me anything that Rice did better coming out of college than Burden.

I can't find one. They played an extremely similar style - Burden just does all those things a little bit better.
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Brian Thomas Jr, Jared Verse, Quinyon Mitchell, Trent McDuffie. Happens every year.

They fall bc about 1/3 of the teams aren’t drafting BPA. They’re drafting to save their job.

Big run on specific players pushes guys down the board. We saw it last year when so many teams took QB and OL. This year there’s gonna be a shit load of DL and OL picked early pushing these guys down the board.

And somebody will take Shedeur or Dart too
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His most notable traits -- physicality and body control/ball tracking -- are difficult to quantify.

It's why a guy like Adams falls. Hell, it's why Jefferson fell. They don't jump off the page in any single area. They're just guys that do a LOT of things really well and their best traits are easier to overlook than a guy like Worthy who runs fast or a guy like Tet McMillan who's just very damn big.

A 'sum of very strong parts' guy is just someone that's harder to project and doesn't always leap off your screen.

But I just struggle a TON to find a skill that isn't at least good for an NFL wide receiver. Maybe release?

All the rest of it is related to use. His route tree, his focus, his attitude, his snaps on the boundary. It's ALL use. Hell, even the release questions are mostly because Mizzou used him a lot in the slot or out of the backfield. When on the boundary, he generally did fine there in the limited times he was out wide and teams pressed him.

Purely from traits, there's nothing he doesn't do very very well.
We're kinda talking different things there though.

Top 10 talents just don't end up in the 2nd round. Those guys you listed slid, to the mid first.

A guy available at the end of the first probably isn't waht's being claimed. Doesn't mean by any means he's not or won't end up a really good player.
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:10 AM   #514
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We're kinda talking different things there though.

Top 10 talents just don't end up in the 2nd round. Those guys you listed slid, to the mid first.

A guy available at the end of the first probably isn't waht's being claimed. Doesn't mean by any means he's not or won't end up a really good player.
If he is in any way an upgrade over Rice - which he looks like could well be - he has to be taken at 31.

Hell, I'd take him if he was an upgrade over Worthy, which I think is almost certain.
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:11 AM   #515
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Adams went in the 2nd, no?

Rice did and he'd go first in a Re-draft
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:20 AM   #516
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Adams went in the 2nd, no?

Rice did and he'd go first in a Re-draft
Were they top 10 type talents though?

We've entered "Tom went in the 6th" territory.
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:21 AM   #517
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I'm by no means saying he's a bad prospect. He's a first rounder.

I just take some issue with "top 10 talent".
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:34 AM   #518
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Were they top 10 type talents though?

We've entered "Tom went in the 6th" territory.
But now you're just operating in a circular loop.

"Top 10 talents don't go in the 2nd. Adams wasn't a top 10 talent because he went in the second..."

He was CLEARLY a top 10 talent, he just got overlooked because his strengths weren't readily apparent and obviously measurable.

My point is that a top 10 raw talent who's talents are more obscured (Adams route-running) can slide. Maybe not at OL or even DL where there's a decided lack of guys who simply have the body types that can do the job.

But at WR? There are a TON of guys every year who are between 5'11" and 6'2" who can run in the 4.4s and who certainly measure the part. The ones that succeed do so in the margins.

I think Burden has shown a ton of potential in those margins.

He's EXACTLY the sort of guy who might slide because he's a guy who's measurables are all very good but who's only flashed the stuff you see in the margins. And I believe that's because of the strangest usage I've seen in the platform season of a blue chip prospect in a very very long time.

Doing what they did to Burden would've been like taking someone like Bijan and putting him at fullback in his platform year coming off an exemplary sophomore season.

What they did with Burden this year was just so very, very strange.
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Old 04-24-2025, 10:34 AM   #519
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I'm by no means saying he's a bad prospect. He's a first rounder.

I just take some issue with "top 10 talent".
Then what the heck are we doing here?

If he's a first rounder, take him at 31!

The rest is semantics.
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Old 04-24-2025, 11:04 AM   #520
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The only thing that would really piss me off is if we don’t draft a receiving threat in the first 2 rds.

WR is not in a great place and the room has gone to shit overall the last 2 years.

By far the biggest early need to me. We can get a dynamic stud RB in rd 3 or 4.
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Old 04-24-2025, 11:06 AM   #521
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Burden looks like a Terry Mclaurin with less crisp route running.
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Old 04-24-2025, 11:12 AM   #522
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Burden looks like a Terry Mclaurin with less crisp route running.
That comp is close (though I think Egbuka is a McLaurin CLONE).

When you watch tape of him working routes 1x1 against guys, his routes look crisp, and he routinely creates huge amounts of separation. And with his ability to stop, start, cut, and accelerate, he has the physical tools to just route guys the eff up over time.

Re: off-field concerns, he stayed at Mizzou even though he was offered huge money to leave (more than they were paying) and even though he was told it would be better for his stock to work in an offense where he had more help.

He stayed. Loyalty was a factor for him (he also was well compensated).

In he is in a good organization, I don't think it will be a problem. If he's playing for a bad org or with trash QBs, it could be a problem.

I think he'd struggle under Brian Daboll, for example. But send him to Pittsburgh or Kansas City or Buffalo or Baltimore, and I think he does just fine.
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Old 04-24-2025, 11:14 AM   #523
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Worthy
Hollywood-hasn’t played a full season since 2021
Rice-suspension? Could take awhile to get back from the knee
Juju-knee issues, will likely miss time. Isn’t explosive anymore
Skyy-lmao
Ross-lmao
Thornton-could be a decent depth player but not a top 4 WR

Add that Kelce’s explosion is gone and he’s probably a decoy or zone beater at this point.

Yeah…WR is a huge need.
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Old 04-24-2025, 11:16 AM   #524
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Can I change my pick?

I don't think Simmons makes it to us.


I am switching to Derrick Harmon.
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Old 04-24-2025, 11:22 AM   #525
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Worthy
Hollywood-hasn’t played a full season since 2021
Rice-suspension? Could take awhile to get back from the knee
Juju-knee issues, will likely miss time. Isn’t explosive anymore
Skyy-lmao
Ross-lmao
Thornton-could be a decent depth player but not a top 4 WR

Add that Kelce’s explosion is gone and he’s probably a decoy or zone beater at this point.

Yeah…WR is a huge need.
Yeah, I just don't get why folks look at our OL with 5 starters in place for 2025 and say OL is a huge need.

Then look at our pass catchers and say WR is a luxury item.

They both look VERY similar to me.

So take the guy with two knees and more talent...
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