Tesla Cybertruck

[DaFace]

Well, he said it was going to be different.

The #Cybertruck, Tesla’s all-new electric pickup truck, is here, and it can take a sledgehammer to the door while nary a dent. The all-electric pickup will offer up to 500 miles of range and start at $39,000. https://t.co/7a8YBicIkC

— WIRED (@WIRED) November 22, 2019

Starts at $40k, though. That's impressive.

[Lzen]

The thing about battery storage is that it is still quite expensive for homeowners. Plus, I looked into teslas batteries and they aren't even available for my area.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Wind farms generate a lot of power at night and if you are spending 8 or 12 hours recharging the vehicle overnight, the demand isn't that high and there isn't a lot of other demand at night.



Trying to fast super charge a lot cars during the day I could see being a bigger issue.

This. Superchargers won't be the norm for charging. Long trips and convenience mostly.

Superchargers will eventually all have as much local production as is feasible(canopy solar, nearby field maybe) and high capacity storage themselves. It will help, but super high throughout chargers like Cali will have to draw from the grid. Cali already overproduces energy, they just need a place to store it to flatten the duck curve and deal with high demand charging locations.

They already have the highest density of EVs anywhere but maybe Norway. They should have more data than anyone to make it a smooth transition.

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[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Lzen

The thing about battery storage is that it is still quite expensive for homeowners. Plus, I looked into teslas batteries and they aren't even available for my area.

The focus is now scale. All of their products are basically ordered years out. The problem up until now has been if you fulfill battery demand, you reduce the number of cars you can build.

They're must of the way through solving this by making the car structure itself tragically more efficient in weight with gig castings and structural battery. This should move 80% of vehicle demand to iron based cathode lion batteries. Iron is plentiful and this alleviates demand of nickel for large and performance models.

Gravimetric and volumetric energy density don't matter much to stationary storage, so iron will suffice here as well.

Looking forward, the only bottleneck Tesla has yet to solve is battery minerals. Govts should be opening regulations for domestic production and all signs point to Tesla getting into mining for themselves, so I expect them to accelerate that industry as well.

If it's not obvious to you yet, it should be glaring at some point between now and 2025.

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[aturnis]

Costs for storage shouldn't really be a problem either. Only reason their costs are up so much currently is supply chain and high demand.

Lithiums gone through the roof, but that should incentives more production plus their own mining efforts. Capacity is increasing with 2 new factories brought online. Crappy they have to temper demand, but if the line gets too long, it'll leave a bad taste in customers mouths.

They should deliver 1.5M cars this year and grow 50% yoy for awhile. They are also in the process of ramping or building 4 separate high volume factories currently that are 100% Tesla owned and operated. So eventually they should be the world largest producer of batteries in addition to largest consumer.

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[srvy]

Originally Posted by aturnis

You're being an ass. Been in commercial construction for almost 20 years headline multi million dollar projects. Literally worked with thousands of companies and individuals. Depending on your geography, 98% of your work is probably inside of a 90 mile radius. Especially if you're based in a city which of course is where most work is done.

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I'll put my 40 years plus working on some of the biggest high profile projects in the KC Metro area. That doesn't even include state-federal projects including highways bridges prisons army and airforces bases. In the last 15 years in the energy field pipeline hydro and overland transmission of electric.

The construction industry travels and travels in cold environments where batteries lose near half their capacity. They have a lot to fix to be reliable in the field.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by srvy

I'll put my 40 years plus working on some of the biggest high profile projects in the KC Metro area. That doesn't even include state-federal projects including highways bridges prisons army and airforces bases. In the last 15 years in the energy field pipeline hydro and overland transmission of electric.



The construction industry travels and travels in cold environments where batteries lose near half their capacity. They have a lot to fix to be reliable in the field.

Got a lot of experience with electric cars do ya?

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[srvy]

Originally Posted by aturnis

Got a lot of experience with electric cars do ya?

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I don't but the people who run businesses in those fields that have studied the feasibility do not like what they see.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by srvy

I don't but the people who run businesses in those fields that have studied the feasibility do not like what they see.

They've done no studies, at least not with good cars or good data. I haven't seen many studies that don't use outdated data or flat wrong data. Even the govt uses old data and entirely the wrong numbers. Either they refuse to think, or it's important to them that this transition happens on their terms. I vote the latter.

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[srvy]

Originally Posted by aturnis

They've done no studies, at least not with good cars or good data. I haven't seen many studies that don't use outdated data or flat wrong data. Even the govt uses old data and entirely the wrong numbers. Either they refuse to think, or it's important to them that this transition happens on their terms. I vote the latter.

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you're a waste of time.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by srvy

you're a waste of time.

Not really. Govt still talks like transmission lines are going to melt. Still take the kWh contained on a gallon of gas multiplied by total gallons to determine kWhs needed for electric cars. It's completely dishonest.

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[aturnis]

Originally Posted by aturnis

Not really. Govt still talks like transmission lines are going to melt. Still take the kWh contained on a gallon of gas multiplied by total gallons to determine kWhs needed for electric cars. It's completely dishonest.

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Same as they did for solar/wind for years. Old data and ignore the declining trend in costs. Same as had been done for batteries.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by aturnis

Have you not looked at the specs? It radically outperforms an F150. In many categories it's closer to a 250.

https://news.pickuptrucks.com/2019/1...ord-f-150.html



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How can you look at that Tesla and see “work”?

That is a weekend warrior delight. It’s only a concept car, so I’m not going to crap on it too much.

Look at my posts. I am pumped for an electric truck, and not the ford version in particular. I want a usable vehicle.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by aturnis

Battery storage will not be an issue. Iron is cheap and plentiful. Large scale would be nice, but enough people will install them in their homes along with solar to create some buffer.

I don't think high capacity lines are a huge issue. Honestly, battery storage should create enough microgrids to keep production close to consumption.

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I don't think the country has the political will to build much in the way of high transmission lines. Between NIMBYism land owners and intense lobbying from interest groups, for example, eastern power companies that don't want competition from cheap great plains wind farms.

So batteries it will be.

Grid batteries don't have to be high tech/light weight, and costs will no doubt drop. It's not really a question of technology. It's more a question of whether the country can invest in its future.

The free market isn't really interested in forward thinking and solving these types of problems.

See Texas experiment in turning its electrical grid over to private sector and what happens when the temperature drops below freezing.

California's legislature being captured by PG&E didn't turn out any better.

I wish I had a bit of your optimism.

(Just what are you smoking? )

Especially when the country is so politically divided and you get people acting out of spite just to 'own' the other side even when it's not even in their own self interest.

[aturnis]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

I don't think the country has the political will to build much in the way of high transmission lines. Between NIMBYism land owners and intense lobbying from interest groups, for example, eastern power companies that don't want competition from cheap great plains wind farms.

So batteries it will be.

Grid batteries don't have to be high tech/light weight, and costs will no doubt drop. It's not really a question of technology. It's more a question of whether the country can invest in its future.

The free market isn't really interested in forward thinking and solving these types of problems.

See Texas experiment in turning its electrical grid over to private sector and what happens when the temperature drops below freezing.

California's legislature being captured by PG&E didn't turn out any better.

I wish I had a bit of your optimism.

(Just what are you smoking? )

Especially when the country is so politically divided and you get people acting out of spite just to 'own' the other side even when it's not even in their own self interest.

Honestly, best if govt stays out of it. Economics should incent deployment. All we need is production at scale and materials. Scale production is in it's early stages. Best thing govt can do is incent clean battery mineral mining domestically. Emphasis on clean.

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[DaFace]

This is just a concept car, but they'd sell a ton of these if they ever brought them to production.