Are the Bills overhyped?

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Update: Yes, the Bills were overhyped.

[Wisconsin_Chief]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Probably going to be sent to DC for this, but I think it's at least a little about the 'mold'. They'll hype a black QB if he's a 'dual threat', athletic, running QB. If it's a cerebral passer, they're going to hype the white guys. Mahomes doesn't fit the narrative. He's not black enough, and not white enough to be the poster boy. I know that's going to get me flamed, but I see no other explanation- and it's probably not even conscious.

I can definitely see why you would think this, but I just don't believe it's the case. Remember when all the BLM stuff was going on, who did LeBron turn to in the NFL to be the face of that whole deal? It was Patrick, not Lamar. So he's "black" enough for something like that.

Patrick is in all the commercials. Patrick has been on the cover of Madden twice in a three year period, which was never done before. Patrick picks up new endorsements every single year. Who's on the Prime Thursday Night Football ads I see on the billboards all over Green Bay, WI? Patrick.

He's kind of already the face of the league, it's almost like none of us think it's possible so we really don't realize it. Hell, the Bills are playing the Dolphins this week, but who is 75% of the country going to see on CBS? Romo and Nantz calling the Chiefs and Colts game.

I think we all have battered wives syndrome and still don't realize it's a different world now. I'm guilty of this myself still thinking the league is trying to screw us, but in reality it's almost as if they have to give other teams calls and advantages just to let them have a chance of even beating Mahomes. The dude just keeps winning and gaining popularity, and seemingly nothing can stop him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Yep. They looked great last year crushing teams but they also got shut down by teams like Jacksonville and literally got run off the field by New England.

Despite their success, they tend to have a couple of bad losses every year. Mahomes just doesn’t have those. The teams that beat us are almost always really good teams.

Has Mahomes ever lost to a team that ended the season below .500?

It's nice that it's a pretty easy list to parse through given the relative dearth of options...

2018: NE, LAR, LAC, Seattle; Seattle with the worst record at 10-6
2019: Indy, Houston, TN: And there's your tough loss; Indy at 7-9
2020: LVR; 8-8
2021: Bal, LAC, Buf, Ten, Cin; Baltimore ended at 8-9.

So two losses in 4 years against sub-par teams. And zero against teams that were truly uncompetitive, though I'd say that losing at home to Jacoby Brissett is a pretty lousy loss even if they only missed .500 by one win.

The combined winning percentage of those teams .610 (130-83). So the rough average for Mahomes losses in his career (not counting playoffs) is 10-6.

I have no idea how that stands up to anyone else, but it sure seems impressive. The Chiefs, for pretty much the entirety of the Mahomes era, have 'beaten the teams they're supposed to beat...'

Which is a welcome change from previous years when I'd make my pre-season record prediction and then add an extra loss in there just for the inevitable 'well we really ****ed that one up....' game.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Well yeah but they play in BUFFALO. So they should probably look to actually beat teams when the weather is bad, not make excuses.

Yeah - hard to say an outdoor team that plays like an hour away from the team that beat them can use weather as a justification for said loss.

That's not a fluke - that's just life in the NFL. Here's a hint: If y'all get to where you wanna go, the path likely goes through Buffalo. And if it does, weather is a pretty likely consideration at some point in there.

And losing a playoff game because it's yucky outside doesn't mean you didn't lose it.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by JustRyan

You’re right that the Bills are not unbeatable. NO team is unbeatable.

But to answer your question on what the Bills did this off-season to become stronger:

I think this is all spot on, though it's a little disingenuous to give points to the younger players on your DL for year-on-year improvement because 1/ every team has younger players who have aged a year and are expected to trend in the right direction and 2/ you need to give equal consideration to the Von Millers of the world who are a year older and headed in the opposite direction.

But I think you hit on a lot of what the Bills have done to improve and why they're rightfully the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

It's definitely too soon to say they're some unstoppable juggernaut, but they looked really good to end last season, looked good in the preseason (even their depth seemed solid), and have started this season exactly as I'm sure they would've hoped for.

That said, I do think Mahomes is better than Allen so that will always give us a really good shot against them.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - hard to say an outdoor team that plays like an hour away from the team that beat them can use weather as a justification for said loss.

That's not a fluke - that's just life in the NFL. Here's a hint: If y'all get to where you wanna go, the path likely goes through Buffalo. And if it does, weather is a pretty likely consideration at some point in there.

And losing a playoff game because it's yucky outside doesn't mean you didn't lose it.

They lost to that Patriots team 14-10 in the weather game and then beat them 33-21 in Foxboro 3 weeks later and vaporized them 47-17 in bad weather in Buffalo in the playoffs.

I kinda feel like they literally did everything possible to avenge that loss and answer whatever questions were needed.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

They lost to that Patriots team 14-10 in the weather game and then beat them 33-21 in Foxboro 3 weeks later and vaporized them 47-17 in bad weather in Buffalo in the playoffs.

I kinda feel like they literally did everything possible to avenge that loss and answer whatever questions were needed.

But that wasn't the question.

The question wasn't "were the Bills better than the Patriots" as that question was pretty loudly settled on the field come post-season time.

The question was "Does it seem like Allen drops a rough game or two every season?"

I think the best response to that is 'hey, NE went 10-7 that year, WTF are they on this list for?"

Because that's a solid, well coached football team. And those guys can jump up and beat you pretty much any time. So go with that if you're a Buffalo fan. But weather? Meh - thin gruel.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by warrior

Mahomes is like a legend already especially with kids.

Boom, nailed it.

Allen might near Mahomes in terms of talent.

But he isn't in the same stratosphere in terms of popularity with the kids and social impact.

FFS, Mahomes is making a goddamn hairstyle trend. Seems like everytime i watch youth football you see a dozen kids with Mahomes' cut.

[DJ's left nut]

Just a quick scan of Allen's list from 2019 through 2021:

2019: Cleveland (w/ Freddie Kitchens, no less) and the Adam Gase Jets. That's two losses right out of the chute that feel worse than anything Mahomes has ever had.

2020: losing to the 8-8 Cardinals is nothing disastrous.

2021: Lost to the Steelers and record be damned, that team was completely trash. The infamous 3-14 Jags loss, 9-8 Colts.

So really, most of this conversation appears to center around a REALLY bad loss. Take away the Jags loss and his performance isn't that much different than Mahomes. And yes, I'm cheating by not including 2018 but that seems fair; this guy ain't that guy.

The Browns, Jets and Jags losses are all pretty tough. And the Steelers loss is as well, but it doesn't quite fit my parameters so I'll let it slide. If the Jags loss doesn't happen, this conversation probably never even gets started.

So...{shrug}

Probably not much to see here.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But that wasn't the question.

The question wasn't "were the Bills better than the Patriots" as that question was pretty loudly settled on the field come post-season time.

The question was "Does it seem like Allen drops a rough game or two every season?"

I think the best response to that is 'hey, NE went 10-7 that year, WTF are they on this list for?"

Because that's a solid, well coached football team. And those guys can jump up and beat you pretty much any time. So go with that if you're a Buffalo fan. But weather? Meh - thin gruel.

Ah, my bad for not understanding the question.

That said, while I agree with you that blaming the weather is typically ‘thin gruel,’ in an example where the opposing QB only throws the ball 3 times precisely because of fear of 60mph wind gusts, I think it’s worth giving a bit more credence to.

The weather that game is infinitely worse than anything Mahomes has encountered and I certainly wouldn’t judge him if he had faced similar inclement circumstances.

[JustDíqLix]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Well yeah but they play in BUFFALO. So they should probably look to actually beat teams when the weather is bad, not make excuses.

That’s an understandable thought. But it wasn’t normal Buffalo crap weather.

It was hurricane weather. 55 mile per hour winds.

Without the weather, the Bills crushed that same Patriots team twice over the next 3-4 weeks.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by JustRyan

That’s an understandable thought. But it wasn’t normal Buffalo crap weather.

It was hurricane weather. 55 mile per hour winds.

Without the weather, the Bills crushed that same Patriots team twice over the next 3-4 weeks.

They lost the game. This is football not every game will be played in perfect weather.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by JustRyan

You’re right that the Bills are not unbeatable. NO team is unbeatable.

But to answer your question on what the Bills did this off-season to become stronger:

- They signed Von Miller who is drawing double teams and RB blocking help, which has freed up the rest of the d-line to cause havoc. I questioned this signing when it happened, but it’s working. Incredibly well.
- They drafted 2 cornerbacks, both of whom that are starting and look really good so far.
- The Bills numerous first round draft picks on the d-line are now a year older and they’re starting to dominate. Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau are wrecking the linemen in front of them.
- Signed Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips - two starting quality D-Linemen that are depth on the Bills, allowing them to rotate and keep guys healthy.
- Josh Allen has become very patient and methodical. He is throwing short, long, and intermediate. The announcers during the game have compared him to Brady with his new methodical nature, and though I think that’s an extreme stretch, I get what they’re saying (he used to force balls instead of being patient).

All in all, it’s only been two games. But that’s all we can go on so far.

The Bills have won their last 20 games in a row by double digits. No team has done that since 1941. Not the Chiefs, not the Patriots, not the Greatest Show On Turf Rams. I think that deserves some respect but I also know it can change in an instant.

Elam has done absolutely nothing thus far and has sat behind a seventh round pick.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by Wisconsin_Chief

I can definitely see why you would think this, but I just don't believe it's the case. Remember when all the BLM stuff was going on, who did LeBron turn to in the NFL to be the face of that whole deal? It was Patrick, not Lamar. So he's "black" enough for something like that.

Patrick is in all the commercials. Patrick has been on the cover of Madden twice in a three year period, which was never done before. Patrick picks up new endorsements every single year. Who's on the Prime Thursday Night Football ads I see on the billboards all over Green Bay, WI? Patrick.

He's kind of already the face of the league, it's almost like none of us think it's possible so we really don't realize it. Hell, the Bills are playing the Dolphins this week, but who is 75% of the country going to see on CBS? Romo and Nantz calling the Chiefs and Colts game.

I think we all have battered wives syndrome and still don't realize it's a different world now. I'm guilty of this myself still thinking the league is trying to screw us, but in reality it's almost as if they have to give other teams calls and advantages just to let them have a chance of even beating Mahomes. The dude just keeps winning and gaining popularity, and seemingly nothing can stop him.

Mahomes got an insane amount of hype early on. But, I mean, you have no choice but to hype a guy who puts up 50 and 5000 in his first year, and then follows it up by winning SB MVP.

He’s taken a lot of unfair criticism the last year or so. And there’s definitely been a double standard. No better example than “NHF” or whatever the hell the acronym was that was created for Josh Allen. Last year, when that happened to Mahomes like 8 times, it was “he’s really struggling.”

Mahomes isn’t allowed to have a single off day, or even a mediocre one. He’s held to a higher standard than any QB in history. And yet, the same people downgraded him to 5th best QB in the league or even lower, 2nd best QB in his own division, and a tier 2 “streetball” QB. Go figure.

[the steam]

You guys seem obsessed by what other people think of Mahomes. Who cares who the face of the league is or who is the most popular with kids? How does that help the Chiefs win the SB? That's all that matters

[JustDíqLix]

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

Elam has done absolutely nothing thus far and has sat behind a seventh round pick.

Not sure where you’re getting your info from.

Benford looks amazing but Elam has played great. He played almost 70% of the defensive snaps against Tennessee and only gave up 17 total yards.

He’s also listed as a top rookie so far, from PFF: “ 12. CB KAIIR ELAM, BUFFALO BILLS (71.3)

Elam continues to be a value add as a rookie for the Bills' defense. He allowed two catches on three targets for just 17 yards against the Titans. Through two games, Elam has now surrendered a grand total of 40 yards into his coverage.”

pff.com/news/nfl-rookies-15-highest-graded-week-2-2022