2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Nice to see them avoiding arbitration in some of these cases.

Hochevar amount sucks, but like al said... he was getting about that one way or another.

It's kind of ludicrous that a team with a payroll of $92 million or so is going to spend 17 percent of that payroll on its closer, an 8th inning guy that still can't be 100 percent trusted with men on base (Hochevar), and a 6th/7th inning/swing starter type (Wade Davis).

They really should look at moving one of Hochevar or Davis for a piece that can help either this year or somewhere down the road. The bullpen could withstand losing either of those guys without missing a beat, IMO.

This.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop

It is not good baseball business. Maybe there is more to this love affair than we know. Maybe GMDM is doing all he can to trade Hoch, and has had no nibbles. I don't know?

The last six years he's averaged a fan graphs dollar value of 7.1M so it's not that surprising. If 1 war is projected to be 6M then he's appropriately priced. As Duncan already pointed out though small markets can't be paying average rates on guys. We need to get above market production with our resources

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

I'm absolutely flabbergasted. This might be the single greatest, most constructive post to ever come from your keyboard.

Maybe you aren't just a troll... or... you just trolled us through truth and cognitive thought?

Damnit!!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Also keep in mind he's a free agent in 2015, he'll get whatever his market value is then. We're not committed to him beyond this season, and he's not keeping us from signing some huge free agent SP, so this argument about small markets can't afford to pay relievers this much money just doesn't apply in this case. I also don't see how any team is going to trade us something we need in 2014 for Hoch.

If they keep him all year, he pitches well as the setup man, and he walks, whatever.

But I would be fine with trading him for something that doesn't necessarily help in 2014 at this point, to a team that needs bullpen help either now or at the deadline.

Even if it's something that can't help until 2016 or later, the Royals have enough bullpen pieces to get over and around trading Hochevar away for future returns.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If they keep him all year, he pitches well as the setup man, and he walks, whatever.

But I would be fine with trading him for something that doesn't necessarily help in 2014 at this point, to a team that needs bullpen help either now or at the deadline.

Even if it's something that can't help until 2016 or later, the Royals have enough bullpen pieces to get over and around trading Hochevar away for future returns.

Our window is probably 2014. Losing teams can't afford to spend money on the bullpen, and we've been a losing team for so long that we're used to thinking they should all be expendable, but we actually need him this season. I'm not going to give a damn about 2016 until this season is over.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

The last six years he's averaged a fan graphs dollar value of 7.1M so it's not that surprising. If 1 war is projected to be 6M then he's appropriately priced. As Duncan already pointed out though small markets can't be paying average rates on guys. We need to get above market production with our resources

The Luke Hochevar FanGraphs thinks exists in terms of effectiveness and value does not exist in the real world.

I like a lot of what FG does and think their PitchFx is one of the coolest, most reliable advanced analysis tools out there regarding pitchers.

But their formula for figuring pitcher WAR and value is ****ed. FanGraphs had Wade Davis as nearly a 2 WAR player this past season.

As far as paying market value for production... it depends on what you're getting and how easily alternatives can be found.

The more rare the commodity and harder it is to find, the more you can afford to pay fair market value for it, based on WAR.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Our window is probably 2014. Losing teams can't afford to spend money on the bullpen, and we've been a losing team for so long that we're used to thinking they should all be expendable, but we actually need him this season. I'm not going to give a damn about 2016 until this season is over.

I just think they can win in 2014 without him.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Kelvin Herrera is again the superior reliever this year. KC's bullpen crew is so deep, and Moore has such a good track record with building the bullpen, Hochevar is expendable. Just like any reliever except elite closer types.

Even if they traded Hochevar, they'd still be looking at RH setup crew options that include:

Kelvin Herrera
Louis Coleman
Aaron Crow

Possibly Wade Davis
Possibly Yordano Ventura

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

The Luke Hochevar FanGraphs thinks exists in terms of effectiveness and value does not exist in the real world.

I like a lot of what FG does and think their PitchFx is one of the coolest, most reliable advanced analysis tools out there regarding pitchers.

But their formula for figuring pitcher WAR and value is ****ed. FanGraphs had Wade Davis as nearly a 2 WAR player this past season.

As far as paying market value for production... it depends on what you're getting and how easily alternatives can be found.

The more rare the commodity and harder it is to find, the more you can afford to pay fair market value for it, based on WAR.

The one critique I do have is that they give undue credit to starters, but the data does show crappy starters can be effective in the pen while the converse is far more rare. I'd have no doubt Guthrie could be a 30+ save guy but I'm doubtful Davis can put up Guthrie numbers in the rotation. I do think Hoch can though. Oakland would never shell out $10m for those two to sit in the pen tossing 140 total innings. Why do we?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

The one critique I do have is that they give undue credit to starters, but the data does show crappy starters can be effective in the pen while the converse is far more rare. I'd have no doubt Guthrie could be a 30+ save guy but I'm doubtful Davis can put up Guthrie numbers in the rotation. I do think Hoch can though. Oakland would never shell out $10m for those two to sit in the pen tossing 140 total innings. Why do we?

I used to think Hochevar could be an effective starter, too. But we have years of evidence that shows he can not.

[Prison Bitch]

Pitchers go in waves though. We had plenty of evidence Chen would never be effective and he was in KC at an old age for whatever reason. As the old Philly gm said "nobody has figured out pitching for the last 100 years"

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Pitchers go in waves though. We had plenty of evidence Chen would never be effective and he was in KC at an old age for whatever reason. As the old Philly gm said "nobody has figured out pitching for the last 100 years"

I know we've debated it before, but some guys just consistently buck their advanced stats (good or bad). Chen has become one of those over the past 3-4 years, which is not completely unheard of (especially for soft-tossing lefties).

That's why you have to incorporate the scout's eye with advanced numbers and apply context. Keeps the numbers from lying to you.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I just think they can win in 2014 without him.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Kelvin Herrera is again the superior reliever this year. KC's bullpen crew is so deep, and Moore has such a good track record with building the bullpen, Hochevar is expendable. Just like any reliever except elite closer types.

Even if they traded Hochevar, they'd still be looking at RH setup crew options that include:

Kelvin Herrera
Louis Coleman
Aaron Crow

Possibly Wade Davis
Possibly Yordano Ventura

I'm not saying without Hoch we're screwed and can't make the playoffs. However, this team with Hoch is better than this team without Hoch, and we can not conceivably trade him for someone else who helps us this year.

Given that I don't give a damn about 2015 or later right now, whatever small value Hoch provides this team, I'd rather keep it than trade it in for more value in a future year without Shields. Even if he gives us +0.2 WAR this season over whoever would take his spot and whoever we could trade him for could give us +1 WAR in 2016, I'll keep the fraction of a win in 2014.

edit: there is a limit to the win-now mentality I have, obviously. I'm not trading off Mondesi and Manaea for a 1-year rental of a decent SP.

[alnorth]

The Royals and Holland have filed their numbers. Royals offered 4.1, Holland is asking for 5.2

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by alnorth

The Royals and Holland have filed their numbers. Royals offered 4.1, Holland is asking for 5.2

What happens if they don't work it out?

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Three7s

What happens if they don't work it out?

An arbitrator will decide