Mahomes vs. Brady: If Chiefs win Super Bowl, there will be a new playoff GOAT

[Hammock Parties]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/611...&userId=729655

If Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl this Sunday in New Orleans, the debate is over. Mahomes would become the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. Tom Brady fans might not want to admit it, but they wouldn’t have to. A mountain of evidence points to Mahomes taking the mantle from him.

Before diving into the debate, let’s clear one thing up: With all due respect to the other quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings (Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw), this is a two-horse race. Mahomes has already won more playoff games than Montana (17-16), and Bradshaw’s statistical profile pales in comparison with Brady’s and Mahomes’.

So it’s really down to two. And as you’re about to see, it’s actually down to one. Mahomes is in position to become the clear playoff GOAT.

Admittedly, it’s shocking how little time it will have taken for the torch to be passed. Just two years after Brady announced his retirement, Mahomes is poised to do something Brady — or any other QB — never did: win a third consecutive Super Bowl. Just by getting to this stage, he’s already accomplished something Brady never did. No quarterback who had won back-to-back titles had ever even returned to the Super Bowl in their quest for a three-peat. Until Mahomes. If he wins Sunday, he’ll be a four-time champion before he turns 30 — once again, something no other quarterback has ever done.

As you’ll see, the only argument in favor of Brady being the better all-time playoff QB than Mahomes is longevity. If you argue Brady is still the playoff GOAT because he won more rings (7-4 if Mahomes wins Sunday) in his 21 seasons as a healthy starter, that’s your prerogative. But just remember, Brady won 33 percent of the Super Bowls he was eligible to win; if Mahomes wins Sunday, he’ll be at 57 percent (4-of-7 as a starter). By the time Brady won his fourth title (at age 37), he was at 30 percent.

By the time you’re finished reading this story, you will understand that a four-time Super Bowl champion Mahomes wins the argument in three of the primary categories you would use to settle this debate. Mahomes will have the higher peak (three-peat); his performance in the clutch far supersedes Brady’s; and he has easily been the superior statistical performer.

Let’s start with that last point. If you just want to use stats to analyze Brady vs. Mahomes in the playoffs, this debate won’t last long. It’s Mahomes by a mile.

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 1



As you can see, Mahomes has the advantage in just about every stat that’s indicative of quarterback success or is typically used in determining superiority. Brady’s only advantage comes in sack percentage and in the places where longevity matters (total wins, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives). But Mahomes is already closing in on Brady’s game-winning drives total, despite playing in 28 fewer games.

From an advanced metric standpoint, Mahomes’ 0.23 EPA is roughly equivalent to what Buffalo Bills superstar Josh Allen (0.24) posted during the regular season. That is to say, Mahomes plays at an MVP level in the playoffs. Brady’s mark of 0.14 nearly mirrors what Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (0.13) posted this season.

It’s also worth pointing out what an asset Mahomes has been as a runner in the playoffs. Despite playing in 28 fewer games, he’s already tallied more rushing touchdowns and first downs than Brady — the original king of the QB sneak — ever did. And that’s with virtually no difference in passing volume. Mahomes averages 277.8 passing yards per game in the postseason, and Brady averaged 279.2.

Taken on the whole, there’s pretty much no statistical argument for Brady.

But Mahomes’ superiority goes beyond total stats. We all know Brady’s reputation in the playoffs was that if you gave him the ball in a had-to-have-it situation, he was going to make you pay. It was inevitable. Put another way: Before Mahomes, you could have won any GOAT QB argument in favor of Brady by simply asking: If you could pick any quarterback to win one playoff game, who would it be?

The answer was Brady. It had to be. But not anymore. If you could pick any QB to win one big game, to lead your team down the field in a have-to-have-it situation, you pick Mahomes. He’s the new clutch king.

The data speaks for itself. These are their playoff numbers in one-score games in the last five minutes and overtime:

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 2



The gap between Mahomes and Brady is even wider here. Look at the EPA. Brady raised his play to MVP level in these scenarios, but Mahomes goes to another planet. The greatest EPA regular season ever recorded (dating to 2000) was posted by Peyton Manning in 2004. He delivered 0.45 EPA, according to TruMedia. Brady’s historic 2007 season EPA was 0.41. Somehow, when it matters most, Mahomes is better than the best ever.

Brady and the New England Patriots used to feel inevitable, but they don’t hold a candle to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Now, to get ahead of (at least) one argument Brady’s defenders will try to use, we’ve analyzed another set of data to prove the point. Eras.

Some will say the early part of Brady’s career occurred before the league became so pass heavy. That’s somewhat fair. Though it’s impossible to assess what kind of numbers Brady might have posted if he had played in a more pass-happy league in the early part of his career, it’s at least worth mentioning the difference in eras isn’t quite as severe as you’d think.

NFL teams in 2024 averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns and 217.6 yards per game. In 2000, Brady’s first year as a starter, teams averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns and 206.9 yards per game. QBs today complete a greater percentage of passes and throw fewer interceptions, but again, the numbers aren’t drastic.

Still, let’s try to even things out a little. Let’s drop early-career Brady and his first three Super Bowls and use only his numbers from 2014 until his retirement, a span in which he won four Super Bowls.

That’s an eight-year sample, similar to the seven years Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas City, with their time overlapping for five seasons (2018-22). So, let’s take a look at how the data stacks up now. Again, we’re looking at one-score playoff games in the last five minutes and overtime:



Brady saw an increase in his performance when dropping his 2001-13 data, but it’s clear his numbers still don’t stack up against Mahomes’. It’s a similar story if you move away from clutch situations and look at their playoff numbers as a whole. Mahomes wins in almost every significant category.

Sure, it’s fair to suggest Mahomes’ metrics could fade as he ages. After all, few have ever held off time and aged as gracefully as Brady. Then again, haven’t we all learned by now that betting against Mahomes is a bad idea?

OK, so when we said there was only one argument (longevity) in favor of Brady, that might have been a touch unfair. It should at least be mentioned that Brady is 2-0 against Mahomes in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl victory.

However, for those keen to use that argument for Brady, let’s remember Eli Manning is 2-0 against Brady in the playoffs, including two Super Bowls, and no one would dare suggest Manning is the superior playoff quarterback. Two games are too small of a sample to determine much, and head-to-head matchups are too circumstantial to use as significant evidence.

The truth is, the further you dive into this debate, the more the evidence stacks up for Mahomes over Brady. Here’s just a small sampling of further research:

• With a win against the Eagles on Sunday, Mahomes will have won 10 straight playoff games, which would tie Brady’s record from 2001 to 2005. The difference, however, is Brady’s Patriots missed the playoffs entirely in 2002, whereas no one has beaten the Chiefs since the 2021 AFC Championship Game.

• Mahomes already has the second-most wins in the playoffs when his team trails by double-digits (five). He’s only one behind Brady, but Mahomes is 5-2 when he has found himself down double digits, and Brady finished 6-8.

• Mahomes’ teams have scored 595 points in his first 20 playoff games (29.7 points per game); Brady’s teams scored 455 (23.9) in his first 20. Want to adjust for era again? Mahomes’ 595 points are more than Brady’s teams scored in his last 20 playoff games, too (568).

• Brady’s defenses only allowed 20.8 points per game in the playoffs, and Mahomes’ defenses have yielded 23.1. Once again, if you adjust for era and only count Brady’s playoff games from 2014 onward, Brady still got more help from his defenses. They allowed just 21.8 points per game.

I understand those who want to stand by Brady and his seven championships. But if you had to pick one QB to win a Super Bowl, could you really pick against Mahomes? I couldn’t.

If his Chiefs win Sunday, the debate will be over. Mahomes will be the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. And part of me wonders: Isn’t that just really saying he’s the greatest quarterback of all time?

That’s an argument for another day.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The head to head and the three peat would cancel each other out

He needs 7 or 8

He needs to focus on being healthy in his 30s and eating right to do it.

Lol. Head to head doesn't cancel out shit. You could have quarterbacked that Tampa team to victory.

Eli Manning > Josh Allen?

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Most seasons leading the league with TDs (5)
Most passing TDs in NFL history...by 80
Most passing yards in NFL history..by nine thousand
Tied for 2nd with Mahomes with most TD passes in a season

I do not like Brady.
I don't think Brady is as physically talented as Mahomes...duh.

But results are results.

He's also a guy with only 3 regular season MVPs across 20 seasons...I'm sorry but that's not GOAT material.

What you are arguing for is "who is the most accomplished QB in NFL history" and that's Brady.

[Omaha]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Sure. And if Mahomes wasn’t the QB we would be the ****ing Texans

What point are you trying to make?

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

He's also a guy with only 3 regular season MVPs across 20 seasons...I'm sorry but that's not GOAT material.

That and a buck will get you a cup of coffee across the street

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Lol. Head to head doesn't cancel out shit. You could have quarterbacked that Tampa team to victory.

Eli Manning > Josh Allen?

If Eli Manning was in the same stratosphere as Brady in total won SBs or statistical achievements, then Eli would have that tiebreaker but he is obviously nowhere near Brady even though he won two vs him.

As it is Allen and Manning are probably a wash right now with the expectation that Allen will surpass him in the future

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

No he doesn't. Again, some of you are just making the rules up as you go along.

In no other team sport is a player with the most titles consider the GOAT of that sport.

Brady played twice as many seasons before getting his 4th ring. With numbers that aren't even comparable.

Hard to win 7 when you haven't even completed 7 seasons.

[Omaha]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Most seasons leading the league with TDs (5)
Most passing TDs in NFL history...by 80
Most passing yards in NFL history..by nine thousand
Tied for 2nd with Mahomes with most TD passes in a season

I do not like Brady.
I don't think Brady is as physically talented as Mahomes...duh.

But results are results.

So you think Emmitt Smith is the greatest running back of all time?

"Results are results."

...or we could use a little critical reasoning to interpret and understand stats.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The head to head and the three peat would cancel each other out

He needs 7 or 8

He needs to focus on being healthy in his 30s and eating right to do it.

Lol you're such a dip shit. The head to head barely has any weight in the debate. It's 2 losses. The 3peat has 1000x the weight of the H2H.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

He's also a guy with only 3 regular season MVPs across 20 seasons...I'm sorry but that's not GOAT material.

What you are arguing for is "who is the most accomplished QB in NFL history" and that's Brady.

There will never be a consensus on this subject even if Mahomes wins 7 or 8 SBs. There's no consensus GOAT in almost any sport. Someone will always find an argument against it.

The MVPs aren't a big deal. Lamar Jackson is about to tie Brady and pass Mahomes in MVPs. And Lamar isn't on anyone's list of best all-time QBs. Not unless you don't count the playoffs at all. Rodgers and Manning are probably the best regular season QBs I've ever seen.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by BWillie

If Eli Manning was in the same stratosphere as Brady in total won SBs or statistical achievements, yes.

As it is Allen and Manning are probably a wash right now with the expectation that Allen will surpass him in the future

Lol. Allen could never win another game and he'd still be clearly superior to Eli Manning.

[seamonster]

If Tom Brady's the greatest of all time than Babe Ruth and Hank Arron are tier below Barry Bonds.

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

There will never be a consensus on this subject even if Mahomes wins 7 or 8 SBs. There's no consensus GOAT in almost any sport. Someone will always find an argument against it.

The MVPs aren't a big deal. Lamar Jackson is about to tie Brady and pass Mahomes in MVPs. And Lamar isn't on anyone's list of best all-time QBs. Not unless you don't count the playoffs at all. Rodgers and Manning are probably the best regular season QBs I've ever seen.

MVPs should count as part of a larger body of work when comparing two players. SBs are the most important but SB MVPs and regular season MVPs should also be taken into account. Lamar will never have the same number of SBs as Pat, so his MVPs are meaningless.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by seamonster

If Tom Brady's the greatest of all time than Babe Ruth and Hank Arron are tier below Barry Bonds.

Babe Ruth should be well below Hank and Bonds. Ruth played in a time where it was only white guys. Those were much easier times.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Omaha

So you think Emmitt Smith is the greatest running back of all time?

"Results are results."

...or we could use a little critical reasoning to interpret and understand stats.

One of them. But good thing running backs dont really matter.

Wins are a QB stat.

Other positions they arent as much.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Babe Ruth should be well below Hank and Bonds. Ruth played in a time where it was only white guys. Those were much easier times.

One person on a baseball team barely matters.

QB is everything in the NFL.

Wins are a QB stat.