What is wrong with Mahomes' deep ball?

[TLO]

I was in the camp most of the season in saying that these guys are going to get on the same page, and eventually the deep shots will start hitting.

After today, I'm not sure this is the case.

Is this an offensive line issue? Just not enough time for Mahomes to set and fire an accurate deep ball?

Is it an WR issue? We have 1 burner in Worthy, but the rest of our receivers are slow.

Is it a Mahomes issue?

Someone smarter than me tell me what's going on.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

If he had hit on the 7-8 bombs this year...do you think teams would defend them differently in the post-season?

I think this whole season has been a fact finding mission for a three-peat....that has always been the main objective. To make history...it's never been done for a reason. It's almost impossible...

I think they've been keeping things close to the vest until they are needed...whenever they need a drive, they suddenly kick in gear.

I think this has been a deliberate strategy from day one...red zone plays have shown little creativity all year.

If I'm correct...it'll go down as one of the biggest snowjobs in sports history. They'll be talking about it 50 years from now.

We're about to find out.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

He missed that because his injured knee gave out on him.

JFC no he didn't. His extra points were fine. He just slipped on the grass. FFS. Butker's knee didn't give. He ALWAYS falls to the ground that way.

[Bearcat]

I get the "he's never been good at the long ball" stuff for those 3rd and short bombs, but a few long passes today weren't "**** it Worthy down there somewhere" and throw it as far as humanly possible, they were relatively easy throws for what, like ~30-40 yards?

And yeah the line sucks, but this is the same quarterback who used to throw cross-body 40 yards across and downfield to guys on a dime or throw it 50 yards downfield on the run, and he's struggling with relatively simple throws with no one in his face or breathing down his neck.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by -King-

The hill things makes no sense and I've always said so. Hill made over the shoulder catches plenty of times when the ball was thrown well and in stride. The only reasons he turned were if Mahomes underthrew it or threw too flat to catch over the shoulder which happened a lot or if he needed to jump and attack the ball because there was a safety on top and he wanted to catch the ball before the safety could make a play on it. But if Mahomes put some air under the ball, he had no problem catching it over his shoulder.

It's always been a Mahomes thing. He just struggles with putting air under the ball and letting players run under it in stride.

That wasn't the case in college. I think he respects those pro defenses more than he should, ends up putting way too much juice on the throws instead of just putting a nice touch on the ball like he did many times in college hitting the receivers in stride on the deep ball.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I get the "he's never been good at the long ball" stuff for those 3rd and short bombs, but a few long passes today weren't "**** it Worthy down there somewhere" and throw it as far as humanly possible, they were relatively easy throws for what, like ~30-40 yards?

And yeah the line sucks, but this is the same quarterback who used to throw cross-body 40 yards across and downfield to guys on a dime or throw it 50 yards downfield on the run, and he's struggling with relatively simple throws with no one in his face or breathing down his neck.

Patrick Mahomes has been pressured 54% of the time today, per @ESPNStatsInfo.

That's the highest pressure rate he's faced in a game since 2020.

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 15, 2024

My suspicion is that it might have something to do with this

[Fishels]

Idk but I hate it

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

My suspicion is that it might have something to do with this

Only if you didn't watch the game or know what throws I was talking about, or read my post where I said he wasn't getting pressured on those throws at all, or that he used to get pressured frequently and still throw accurately downfield.

Besides that, yeah thanks for the suggestion, I never would have thought of it.

[Kman34]

He threw a great deep ball last year. The WRs refused to catch them..

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Only if you didn't watch the game or know what throws I was talking about, or read my post where I said he wasn't getting pressured on those throws at all, or that he used to get pressured frequently and still throw accurately downfield.

Besides that, yeah thanks for the suggestion, I never would have thought of it.

I have a habit of skimming posts trashing Mahomes for missing some throws in meaningless December games while his offensive line is consistently getting destroyed as bad as it has in 5 years, my bad.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Only if you didn't watch the game or know what throws I was talking about, or read my post where I said he wasn't getting pressured on those throws at all, or that he used to get pressured frequently and still throw accurately downfield.

Besides that, yeah thanks for the suggestion, I never would have thought of it.

On those little xy charts for under pressure he was routinely all my himself in the upper right corner.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by DRM08

That wasn't the case in college. I think he respects those pro defenses more than he should, ends up putting way too much juice on the throws instead of just putting a nice touch on the ball like he did many times in college hitting the receivers in stride on the deep ball.

Yeah that could be it. I also think that because he knows he has a strong arm, he's scared he's going to overthrow someone if he just moons it so he just throws right at them on a line just to be safe. Kind of like how Alex Smith knew he didn't have a strong arm and would put everything he had into a throw and end up overthrowing the receiver. So it could be a case of overcorrection.

But that wouldn't explain the way he's overthrowing the deep ball on some plays. I don't know, just spitballing here.

[chiefzilla1501]

I think it is a combo of him being an average deep ball accuracy thrower but I still think the bigger issue is trust. He doesn’t trust his OL, doesn’t trust his WRs and now he doesn’t trust himself.

He will find it eventually. I think he needed a full season with both Hollywood and worthy to get into the groove. Let’s hope in a short time he can still get the mojo back. Meantime he’s done just fine with being below average at it recently so this is just about taking greatness to the next level

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

On those little xy charts for under pressure he was routinely all my himself in the upper right corner.

Give him the time Josh Allen is getting in the pocket this year and you’re looking at a completely different discussion but it seems most would rather not have that discussion.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Those pressure percentages just don’t match up with the eye test.

On many of those today, it’s him scrambling up into pressure in the pocket.

Thuney was as solid of LT play as we’ve had all year. He might have to stay out there, IDK.

At some point if this team is going to get it done, Patrick’s gotta snap out of this mental funk and execute the offense. He’s got way too much going on between the ears right now and it’s making issues around him look even bigger.

He has to anticipate and let the ball rip. Stop trying to be so perfect and aim these throws. That’s what it looks like to me.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by -King-

The hill things makes no sense and I've always said so. Hill made over the shoulder catches plenty of times when the ball was thrown well and in stride. The only reasons he turned were if Mahomes underthrew it or threw too flat to catch over the shoulder which happened a lot or if he needed to jump and attack the ball because there was a safety on top and he wanted to catch the ball before the safety could make a play on it. But if Mahomes put some air under the ball, he had no problem catching it over his shoulder.

It's always been a Mahomes thing. He just struggles with putting air under the ball and letting players run under it in stride.

You made me watch Hill’s 2022/2023 highlights and search the Dolphins subreddit after this.

He definitely made more over the shoulder catches than I gave him credit for in those highlights. He did lead the league in drops in 2023, and some Dolphins fans claimed he struggled to reel in over the shoulder balls that hit him in the hands. Idk. My eye test says he always preferred to pivot and make more of a basket catch against his body, and I still see that more often than not watching his Phin highlights.