PFF - Ranking the NFL’s top 10 returning head coaches entering 2024

[kcgreene]

Obvious is Obvious. Andy is 1. Full List is in Spoilers.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking...-entering-2024

1. ANDY REID, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Pairing Reid with Patrick Mahomes has been a cheat code that has led the Kansas City Chiefs to four Super Bowl appearances and three Super Bowl wins. On offense, they have ranked inside the top five in EPA per play every season from 2018-2022, even predating Mahomes’ arrival. They dropped to 12th last season, but with some significant improvements at the wide receiver position, expect them to be back inside the top five again in 2024.

Spoiler!

1. ANDY REID, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Pairing Reid with Patrick Mahomes has been a cheat code that has led the Kansas City Chiefs to four Super Bowl appearances and three Super Bowl wins. On offense, they have ranked inside the top five in EPA per play every season from 2018-2022, even predating Mahomes’ arrival. They dropped to 12th last season, but with some significant improvements at the wide receiver position, expect them to be back inside the top five again in 2024.

2. KYLE SHANAHAN, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Shanahan has yet to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl despite holding leads in one as the Atlanta Falcons‘ offensive coordinator and two as the San Francisco 49ers‘ head coach, but he is the main reason why the 49ers are the favorites to come out of the NFC once again in 2024. They led the NFL in averaging 0.161 EPA per play in 2023 and while they ranked 12th on the defensive side of the ball, Shanahan was bold enough to make the change from Steve Wilks to Nick Sorensen at defensive coordinator heading into this season. That’s good news for Sorensen’s future career prospects, as three of Shanahan’s former coordinators are currently NFL head coaches.

3. JOHN HARBAUGH, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Before the Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson in 2018, it looked like John Harbaugh could be on his way out as their head coach. The former Heisman Trophy winner helped turn things around, and Harbaugh has also improved as a coach in recent years. Harbaugh’s strength has been his ability to make the right decisions on coordinators, as the switch to Mike Macdonald in 2022 led to a defense that allowed an average of -0.134 EPA per play in 2023. On offense, he switched from Greg Roman to Todd Monken, which helped them bounce back to eighth in EPA per play in 2023. They have been the No. 1 seed twice in the Mahomes-Reid era in Kansas City but just haven’t been able to make it count in the playoffs yet.

4. SEAN MCVAY, LOS ANGELES RAMS
While two Super Bowl appearances and one win are obviously the key highlights of McVay’s time with the Rams, you can make the case that getting the Rams to the playoffs last season, when they were tied for 24th worst odds to win the Super Bowl due to a roster that ultimately ranked sixth and second in snaps by rookies on offense and defense respectively, was up there with his best achievements. There are more challenges upcoming for McVay as the Rams deal with Aaron Donald‘s retirement this offseason while Matthew Stafford is now 36 years old and likely nearing the end of his career. Luckily, McVay has proven himself as a head coach at this point.

5. MIKE TOMLIN, PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in T.J. Watt’s career, which isn’t great considering that he’s heading into his eighth season in the NFL in 2024. That being said, if you look at what Tomlin has had at the quarterback position over the past five seasons, even getting to the playoffs is a huge accomplishment. The Steelers didn’t have a quarterback earn a PFF passing grade above 70.0 in 2023. Kenny Pickett was the best of the bunch at 68.8. With Russell Wilson and Justin Fields arriving this offseason, there’s a big opportunity for the Steelers to finally make an impact in the playoffs once again.

6. MATT LAFLEUR, GREEN BAY PACKERS
If there was any doubt that LaFleur’s success in Green Bay in his first four seasons with the Packers was simply down to Aaron Rodgers, that narrative was put to bed in 2023. With Jordan Love in his first season as a starting quarterback, the Packers were tied with the Detroit Lions for fourth place in the NFL with 0.086 EPA per play and took down the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs before pushing the San Francisco 49ers all the way.

7. DAN CAMPBELL, DETROIT LIONS
As a head coach, Campbell has gone from the guy everyone laughed at for the comments about biting kneecaps to the guy who has turned the Detroit Lions franchise into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. He, along with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, has helped revitalize Jared Goff‘s career. The former No. 1 overall pick enjoyed the highest-graded season of his career with an 85.7 PFF grade last year. Campbell's next step is getting the Lions to the Super Bowl, but you wouldn’t bet against them doing that sooner rather than later.

8. DEMECO RYANS, HOUSTON TEXANS
Like Campbell in Detroit, Ryans has led a significant turn of fortunes as the Texans' head coach. After bringing fellow former 49ers coach Bobby Slowik to Houston as offensive coordinator, the Texans were able to turn a team expected to be among the worst in the league into a team that made the divisional round of the playoffs, all with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud. A big offseason has increased expectations for the Texans and if they can improve on the defensive side of the ball, where they ranked 19th in EPA per play allowed in 2023, they can contend with the Chiefs in the AFC. Because Ryans’ strength is on the defensive side of the ball, they are more than capable of doing just that.

9. KEVIN STEFANSKI, CLEVELAND BROWNS
The NFL's reigning Coach of the Year, Stefanski proved his worth as a head coach by making the playoffs with a Browns team that was really lacking at the quarterback position in 2023. They had four quarterbacks attempt 100 or more passes, and Joe Flacco was the best of the bunch with a 70.6 PFF passing grade. With the talent the Browns have on this roster, their success in 2024 will likely be determined by how Stefanski manages the quarterback position once again. Deshaun Watson hasn’t lived up to the price tag the Browns paid for him when they traded three first-round picks and gave him a fully guaranteed contract, and if things don’t improve early in 2024, they may need to consider a switch. Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley were brought in for depth this offseason.

10. SEAN MCDERMOTT, BUFFALO BILLS
Filling the last spot in the top 10 was tough, as numerous coaches were worthy of consideration. Were it not for the late-season turnaround last season, there’s a good chance that I wouldn’t have gone with McDermott here. The Bills ranked third in the NFL with 0.104 EPA per play on offense in 2023 despite a coordinator change midseason. They actually dropped back a little when Joe Brady took over as interim coordinator but still ranked sixth from Week 11 through the end of the season. This upcoming season is a big prove-it year for McDermott, and he likely can’t afford for the Bills to start slow again like they did in 2023.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I'd at least put Harbaugh above Tomlin.

The Matt Canada thing is pretty inexcusable to me. Even a dunce like Herm recognized after his first year that a first time NFL OC like Mike Solari just wasn't working out. Yes, the guy had an incredible run as the OL coach for the best OL in a decade, and he was widely widely respected in NFL circles, but you could just tell he didn't know what he was doing. He wasn't putting guys in positions to succeed. And they didn't seem to develop and improve.

And when you're a defense-minded head coach, goddamn you better hire a good (or at least experienced) OC who knows what he's doing, otherwise the whole thing caves in. Yeah, I know they had QB problems, but when you have those problems, you get the OL going and you at least learn how to run the ball effectively.

That doesn't mean Tomlin is a terrible coach, but at least Harbaugh and Roman could oversee a pretty successful transition from a statue like Flacco to a runaround guy like Lamar midseason with some pretty nice returns early in the process. Tomlin's insistence on staying the course with his guys even when shit obviously isn't working puts him down a rung.

My gut says Harbaugh is a bit better than Tomlin as well but I don’t think there’s a chasm there. Tomlin’s win percentage is better in the regular season, Harbaugh’s is better in the postseason. Both have one SB win, though Tomlin has been twice.

Someone in the other thread did make a good point. Did Harbaugh stunt Lamar’s growth by tailoring the offense around his athleticism for so long?

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

My gut says Harbaugh is a bit better than Tomlin as well but I don’t think there’s a chasm there. Tomlin’s win percentage is better in the regular season, Harbaugh’s is better in the postseason. Both have one SB win, though Tomlin has been twice.

Someone in the other thread did make a good point. Did Harbaugh stunt Lamar’s growth by tailoring the offense around his athleticism for so long?

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Am I insane, or is Dan Campbell overrated.

His players love him, but his specialty is supposed to be defense and they've been very disappointing there despite having top tier players.

Their offense has been what's made them lethal in the past year or two, and that's on Ben Johnson, who had HC opportunities this offseason that he proactively turned down.

Edit: Actually it seems he's a more offensive-minded guy, so disregard.

I wonder how the Lions will perform if/when Ben Johnson moves on.

He completely ****ed them with his idiotic decisions in the NFC Championship game...

I just feel like he'll always be that guy and cost them in high pressure games.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

My gut says Harbaugh is a bit better than Tomlin as well but I don’t think there’s a chasm there. Tomlin’s win percentage is better in the regular season, Harbaugh’s is better in the postseason. Both have one SB win, though Tomlin has been twice.

Someone in the other thread did make a good point. Did Harbaugh stunt Lamar’s growth by tailoring the offense around his athleticism for so long?

The Savant?

No chance in hell. There's no stunting a guy with those kind of Gigabytes, dude.

[staylor26]

What exactly are you supposed to do with a RB at QB?

Try to make him a pocket passer?

Or let him do what he does best?

If he did what he does best in the AFCCG instead of trying to win from the pocket, we might've lost. It's VERY simple.

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by staylor26

What exactly are you supposed to do with a RB at QB?

Try to make him a pocket passer?

Or let him do what he does best?

If he did what he does best in the AFCCG instead of trying to win from the pocket, we might've lost. It's VERY simple.

Easy. That's what you do in College Football 25 for Playstation.

Put the 99 speed guy at QB and just run the option to death.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

What exactly are you supposed to do with a RB at QB?

Try to make him a pocket passer?

Or let him do what he does best?

If he did what he does best in the AFCCG instead of trying to win from the pocket, we might've lost. It's VERY simple.

Story goes that Spags was essentially daring Jackson to run.

If so, that might actually explain how some of those coverages got broken. Jackson had some BIG plays on the table to make with his arm and he just didn't make 'em.

And if Spags is out there putting on looks that suggest to Jackson that he's going to close off escape lanes, well you can't really expect Jackson to continue looking for them as the game progresses; he's had to put himself in a different mindset.

In real time I was absolutely convinced that Jackson just vapor-locked and screwed them. As I read/saw more, however, I think Spags simply did what he can do on occasion (and Belichick was a master of) and got him out of a comfort zone. And once that happened, even those plays that looked available for Lamar's legs were tendency breakers and not something that Jackson had the feel to look for at that point of the game.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Story goes that Spags was essentially daring Jackson to run.

If so, that might actually explain how some of those coverages got broken. Jackson had some BIG plays on the table to make with his arm and he just didn't make 'em.

And if Spags is out there putting on looks that suggest to Jackson that he's going to close off escape lanes, well you can't really expect Jackson to continue looking for them as the game progresses; he's had to put himself in a different mindset.

In real time I was absolutely convinced that Jackson just vapor-locked and screwed them. As I read/saw more, however, I think Spags simply did what he can do on occasion (and Belichick was a master of) and got him out of a comfort zone. And once that happened, even those plays that looked available for Lamar's legs were tendency breakers and not something that Jackson had the feel to look for at that point of the game.

I just find it hard to beleive that there weren't more opportunities to use his legs in there somewhere, but overall you're probably right.

But when that's how it's going in year 6, I think it's safe to say that Lamar has been maxed out as a passer.

This idea that Harbaugh and the OCs have stunted his growth is just hilarious.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by staylor26

What exactly are you supposed to do with a RB at QB?

Try to make him a pocket passer? .

Yes, actually. The prevailing narrative is that, in order to win a Super Bowl your QB will have to make big time throws from inside the pocket.

I think there’s a real possibility that six years of allowing the QB to rely on athleticism and run-heavy game plans has held back his progression.

[DJ's left nut]

You'd have more success making Lamar Jackson a wide receiver than you would a pocket passer.

He simply doesn't have the biomechanics for it. It would go about as well as trying to make Tebow one.

Nothing Harbaugh did held Jackson back. He got the absolute most out of the guy that anyone possibly could.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Yes, actually. The prevailing narrative is that, in order to win a Super Bowl your QB will have to make big time throws from inside the pocket.

I think there’s a real possibility that six years of allowing the QB to rely on athleticism and run-heavy game plans has held back his progression.

That's who he is. That's what he was going to be. This isn't a case like Michael Vick where he had such a live rocket arm and was capable of hitting any spot on the field. Jackson doesn't exactly have a noodle arm, but he doesn't trust it as much as he could, and it doesn't help either that the guy just plain doesn't have it upstairs, either.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Yes, actually. The prevailing narrative is that, in order to win a Super Bowl your QB will have to make big time throws from inside the pocket.

I think there’s a real possibility that six years of allowing the QB to rely on athleticism and run-heavy game plans has held back his progression.

You're so clueless. You can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit. He doesn't have the tools or the brains to be a pocket passer. You're delusional if you think otherwise.

The guy is a 2 time MVP and was really close to being in a ****ing SB last year. Considering how bad he is at actually playing QB, that's a miracle. It has worked only because they've played to his strengths and got the absolute most out of him. This might be your most reeruned take ever.

[Megatron96]

Not a fan of Tomlin, but I can see why they put him as high as they did. But just based on what Stefanski did last season (and everyone knows I'm not a big fan of Stefanski either) he really should be ranked above Tomlin at this point.


At this point, I have to admit that Dan Campbell is a pretty good coach, but he's probably ranked a little too high as well. Going for 4th and long from behind his own 40-yd line is just dumb as hell, especially when his team was still well within striking distance. And he did the same thing earlier in the season, with the same results. I can't see him ranked where he is either.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Am I insane, or is Dan Campbell overrated.

His players love him, but his specialty is supposed to be defense and they've been very disappointing there despite having top tier players.

Their offense has been what's made them lethal in the past year or two, and that's on Ben Johnson, who had HC opportunities this offseason that he proactively turned down.

Edit: Actually it seems he's a more offensive-minded guy, so disregard.

I wonder how the Lions will perform if/when Ben Johnson moves on.

He was a TE. Why would his specialty be defense?

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

That's who he is. That's what he was going to be. This isn't a case like Michael Vick where he had such a live rocket arm and was capable of hitting any spot on the field. Jackson doesn't exactly have a noodle arm, but he doesn't trust it as much as he could, and it doesn't help either that the guy just plain doesn't have it upstairs, either.

I wonder if Harbaugh and the GM are on the same page then. Taking a QB everyone knows is a project at #32 isn’t an issue, but allowing him to lean on his crutch in a tailor made offense and then extending him long-term going into his sixth season while knowing he will never develop is a head scratcher.

.. Unless you lean on the business angle. Maybe they trusted that Lamar was a good enough football player to keep them employed for a few more years knowing that he’ll win games but never be good enough to win them a trophy.