An analysis of franchise momentum: The Chiefs' Dow Jones Average.

[Rain Man]

Many of us speak of the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s and warn you young bucks that it could be worse.

Well, it's pretty bad, and I started wondering just where we stand relative to the Dark Ages. So I developed an algorithm.

Here's how it works. Starting with Day 1 of the franchise, I looked at every regular and post-season game in our history. Each week I did the following:

A win is worth 1 point and a loss is worth -1 point.
I then add it to 99 percent of the score of the previous week.

In this way, it creates a long tail showing the momentum of the franchise, because a win or loss shows up the next week at 99%, the following week at 99% of that, and so on. So it more or less traces a path of the long-term goodwill or badwill built up by the franchise over time as every single game in history continues to ripple through the Chiefs' space-time continuum.

I made a couple of adjustments, too. I made a playoff game worth 3 points for a win and -3 for a loss, and I also added or subtracted 1 point at the end of each regular season depending on whether or not we made the playoffs. These points get tossed in with the rest of the scores.

The Chiefs Dow Jones can thus be positive or negative, with a positive number indicating more good times than bad, and negative representing, of course, times like now where we are killing our pack animals for food and the dead are carted away in wheelbarrows.

What I found is shown in the accompanying graph. The numbers don't really mean anything but are more of an abstract measure. Some key elements of the timeline include:

1. After some early positive and negative fluctuations, the Chiefs found themselves with a positive Dow of 0.08 in Week 2 of the 1962 season, after a 26-16 win over the Raiders to go 2-0. The Dow would remain positive for the next 15 years after that win. Go, Lenny!

2. With significant assistance from the AFL championship win in 1962, the Chiefs Dow Jones passed +10.0 for the first time in Week 1 of the 1963 season as the Chiefs blasted the Broncos 59-7. However, by Week 5 the Chiefs were 2-2-1, having just lost to the Buffalo Bills 35-26, and they wouldn't see the 10.0 point mark again until a 32-24 win over the Jets in Week 12 of the 1966 season, on their way to the loss in Super Bowl I. So the 1962 championship more or less created the little spike you see in the early days.

3. The Chiefs' star rose rapidly after that, with with the Dow surpassing +20 on Week 12 of the 1968 season. A 24-10 win over the Houston Oilers put the Chiefs at 10-2, and they went on to a 12-2 record but a humiliating playoff loss.

4. 1969 was of course a banner season. After ending 1968 with an index of 19.49, the Chiefs blew through the season with an 11-3 record and three postseason wins, including Super Bowl IV. We ended the season at a then-record Dow of +33.48.

5. We actually beat the Dow record briefly in 1970, though as you can see from the graph, we were topping out and struggling to stay at that level. At the end of Week 12 of the 1970 season the Dow stood at 33.61. We were 7-3-2 at that point, having just beaten the pushover Denver Broncos 16-0 and with the Super Bowl win still fresh. However, losses to Oakland and San Diego the following two weeks kept us out of the playoffs.

6. The team was still strong, though. I'm girding myself for neg rep from milkman, but the high water for the Kansas City Chiefs franchise actually occurred not upon the Super Bowl win, but rather at the end of Week 14 in 1971, as we prepared for a playoff game. The Dow at this point was at 33.63 and the Chiefs were a powerful team of winning veterans. We were 10-3-1 and had just beaten the Buffalo Bills and their young running back O.J. Simpson by a score of 22-9. While we'd missed the playoffs the previous year, we'd made it the two years before that and of course still had the Super Bowl in recent memory.

Of course, we would have our beating hearts ripped out and eaten the following week on Christmas Day, starting a horrific multi-decade decline that is the curse of Garo Yepremian.

7. From that high point of 33.63, we began a terrible, terrible decline, both long and rapid. A 23-16 loss to the Bengals in Week 5 of 1972 dropped us below 30 for good, and a 14-7 loss to the Chargers in Week 9 of 1974 dropped us below 20 points for the first time since Week 3 of the 1969 season. A 28-20 loss to Oakland to end the 1975 season dropped the index below 10.0.

8. In Week 4 of 1977 the Dow actually fell below zero, meaning that the franchise's cumulative memory was now negative. On that day, the Chiefs fell to 0-4 with, ironically, a 23-7 loss to the Broncos.

9. The fall did not stop there. In Week 6 of 1978 we fell to an index below -10 with a loss to the Buccaneers, and the low point of that era occurred with a loss to San Diego in Week 4 of 1980, when our index fell to -18.64.

10. Marv Levy stabilized the franchise a bit, temporarily pulling the index above -10.0, and then Mackovic came in. He didn't do quite as well as Marv as the Chiefs started sliding again, but his playoff spot in 1986 got the index to -10.28 before the playoff loss.

11. Mackovic was fired, and Gansz came in and started digging. An ugly loss to Seattle in Week 2 of 1988 took the index below -20.0 for the first time ever. By the time he left, the index was at a then-record -23.35 as 1988 drew to a close.

12. In 1989 a holy trinity came to town: Carl Peterson, Marty Schottenheimer, and Derrick Thomas. It took a few games to catch fire, though, and the low point of the Chiefs franchise occurred when a 21-17 loss to the Bengals took the index to an all-time pre-Pioli low of -24.41. However, things began looking up, and by the end of 1989 the index had risen to -19.74.

13. Bam, bam, bam. Faster than Derrick Thomas beating a left tackle, the Chiefs' fortunes rose. As they headed into a heartbreaking playoff loss to the Dolphins in 1990, the index was up to -10.14. In Week 7 of 1993, a young Will Shields and an old Joe Montana had resurrected the franchise, getting above 0 for the first time since 1977 with a 17-14 win over the Chargers as part of a 5-1 start to the season. Two playoff wins would push the index to 9.30.

14. In Week 8 of 1995, a 21-7 win over the Broncos would push the index above 10 for the first time since 1975.

15. The high water mark of the Peterson/Schottenheimer/Thomas era was the end of Week 16 of the 1997 season, when the index stood at 19.07. However, the theft of the playoffs the next week by a salary-cap-cheating team signalled the fall of Rome and its helmet-haired emperor.

16. In Week 1 of the 1999 season, coach Gunther Cunningham lost to the Bears and their "high-fangled trickery" and the index fell below 10.0. The index was at 5.43 when Gunther got his walking e-mails.

17. Dick Vermeil took over a team in crisis, and the index actually fell below zero three times in his early years, Week 13 of 2001 and Weeks 3 and 17 of 2002 as he struggled to stay above zero. However, he then assembled the greatest offensive show in Kansas City history and things looked up.

18. The high point of the Vermeil era was a 9.29 index at the end of the 2003 regular season, just before we entered the puntless game in Indianapolis. When Vermeil left, the index was back down to 4.98.

19. Enter Herm. He actually managed to increase the index for 16 weeks, rising to 7.16 before the embarrassing playoff loss to Indianapolis that dropped his first-year index to 4.08. From there on out it was downhill, with the index dropping below zero in Week 13 of 2007 after a 24-10 loss to the Chargers. A 30-27 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 9 of 2008 dropped the index below -10.0, and when Herm's work was finally done in 2008 the index stood at a frightful -16.60.

20. Haley arrived, and muddled about a bit. He got us as high as -14.45 the week before his playoff game, but then a bad 2011 dropped his cumulative reign into negative growth, as he was fired at an index of -18.04.

The Crennel era began with a little positive momentum, but then the bottom dropped out. Down, down, down in that burning ring of fire. Then further down. And further. As the 2012 season came to a close, the week 15 loss to the Raiders took the franchise to its lowest index in history. Then the Colts game dragged it down further. And finally, the Broncos game took us even further into uncharted territory. As of today, the Chiefs' index is at the lowest point in franchise history, at an astonishing level of -26.09.

[ThunderChief]

Really, really stellar and excellent analysis Rain Man. I always thought in my gut that the '71 Chiefs were, up and down the lineup, the best team assembled in KC in spite of that season ending, 6 quarter loss to Miami in the Christmas Bowl game.

And, this 2009 team seems about as bad as those Dark Ages teams from the 75-89 era, so I'd have to say that your analysis is right on the mark, and remarkable.

[Jack]

Kudos from a person who absolute abhors stats and such.

I have saved this for future reference. A few trips down memory lane does soften the mental kicks in the gut that any true fan of the term endures these days. . .

I have stored this file away for future reference.

grazie

[Jack]

Rain Man

I realize it was a tremendous effort on your part. This shows some glaring issues.

Would it be possible to chart successful franchises such as Pittsburgh, Dallas starting from the same period?

I love how Lamar thumbed his nose at Lombardi and set the stage for the AFL. I just feel his tight hand on the bucks was the single reason for the mediocre squads the Chiefs have fielded.

Thanks

[Mr. Flopnuts]

The net gain in the 90's rivaled that of our peak in the early 70's. The lesson to be learned from that is we should bring back Marty.

[Rain Man]

I'd actually really like to do that.

If anyone has time to pull the data down for me for any franchise, I'd appreciate it. PM me and I'll show you what I did. It took me maybe an hour to pull the Chiefs down. It might be longer for older NFC teams and less for younger teams.

[DJ's left nut]

When did the 16 game season go into effect? That also gave Peterson a couple more games/season to pad his record during the strong years and would've presumably added a few more points to the Hank teams as well.

Bottomline - great post; we suck hard right now.

[bowener]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

The bottom line? If we lose the next 5 games in a row, it will officially be the lowest point of Chiefs civilization.

This is truly impressive work, sir. I would rep you more if I could.

I was wondering if you had the time to create a graph (only) for a successful team, such as the Steelers over the same course of the Chiefs existence. If not them, then somebody like the Pats (curious to see how their graph looked when they went 16-0) who faced hard times as well for a while.

I would like a great team to measure our ineptitude by, you know, to put things into perspective.

Also, is a super bowl win worth +3 or is it more? Is a super bowl berth worth points regardless of win? Something like +3 for appearing in the Super Bowl, but -5 for losing, thus a net of -2 or +7 for loss/win. Seems a franchise that even makes it to the Super Bowl (and loses) has something more to hang their hats on than the teams that do not make it.


This is just another side note:
It would be cool to go back and find the attendance records for each home game, probably would need to be done as a percentage of the capacity of the stadium, for example 77,000 out of 78,000 is considered a sell out, but it is actually 98.72% full. It would be interesting to see at what point the fans give up on attending the games during one of our many long down turns, and at what point they begin to attend in force again (following a string of victories, a new hiring, etc...)

[ChiefsCountry]

The 1971 team was the best, the 69 team would be even more if Dawson played the whole year. Livington replacing Dawson was like Cassel replacing Brady.

The Christmas Day Game if you look at it is pretty big one in the history of NFL. It kind of gets swept under the rug but if you look at it is pretty big. If the Chiefs win, more than likely they go to the Super Bowl against the Cowboys. That would mean they would have went to 3 of the first 6 Super Bowls, win it and the Chiefs are talked about as the team of that era instead of Green Bay. Hank Stram and Dawson's legacies would be even more iconic in NFL history. Not to mention our defense would get the credit that they never have really gotten in history. Dallas doesn't win that and more than likely aren't crowned America's Team, instead they are Super Bowl chokers. Miami took the momentum from a Super Bowl run to go undeafted in 1972, do they do that if they get beat in the playoffs the year before?

Its alot of ifs and buts, but it is something to think about.

[cdcox]

I don't know if you can say the Chief's D of the glory years never got the recognition they deserved. Four players from that D have been inducted into the HOF and they are routinely mentioned as one of the top 10 defenses of all time. Johnny Robinson is probably the only other guy on that defense that deserved HOF consideration, IMO.

[oldandslow]

RM-

Rep. You really should write this up and send it to the Star. It is certainly better than 99% of the tripe you read in the fish wrap.

[InChiefsHeaven]

Originally Posted by oldandslow

RM-

Rep. You really should write this up and send it to the Star. It is certainly better than 99% of the tripe you read in the fish wrap.

THat's an awesome idea...seriously!

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I don't know if you can say the Chief's D of the glory years never got the recognition they deserved. Four players from that D have been inducted into the HOF and they are routinely mentioned as one of the top 10 defenses of all time. Johnny Robinson is probably the only other guy on that defense that deserved HOF consideration, IMO.

I agree with that but the stupid 85 Bears and some others get alot more pub. If they had the one more Super Bowl victory, I guarantee you they would be even more highly thought of.

[ThunderChief]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

The 1971 team was the best, the 69 team would be even more if Dawson played the whole year. Livington replacing Dawson was like Cassel replacing Brady.

The Christmas Day Game if you look at it is pretty big one in the history of NFL. It kind of gets swept under the rug but if you look at it is pretty big. If the Chiefs win, more than likely they go to the Super Bowl against the Cowboys. That would mean they would have went to 3 of the first 6 Super Bowls, win it and the Chiefs are talked about as the team of that era instead of Green Bay. Hank Stram and Dawson's legacies would be even more iconic in NFL history. Not to mention our defense would get the credit that they never have really gotten in history. Dallas doesn't win that and more than likely aren't crowned America's Team, instead they are Super Bowl chokers. Miami took the momentum from a Super Bowl run to go undeafted in 1972, do they do that if they get beat in the playoffs the year before?



Its alot of ifs and buts, but it is something to think about.

Let me weigh in by stating that the '71 Christmas Day game between KC and Miami was about the best NFL game I've ever seen, in spite of the outcome. I've never before or since experienced the emotional roller coaster highs and lows of that magnificent game and dare say, no other game comes close in matching it.

What might of been had the Chiefs prevailed that day? Certainly, NFL and Chief's history could and probably would be altered significantly and that's saying something. You make some compellingly interesting points on the outcome of that game, CC, and ones I haven't thought about before now.

[brainsmasher]

That is good work.

[Rain Man]

Here's the Raiders' Index using the same rules.

A few things stand out:

First, the high point of Raider civilization dwarfs the high point of Chiefs civilization. Whereas the Chiefs topped out at slightly under 34, the Raiders topped out at 55.867 after a playoff win against the Colts in 1977. (They then lost the AFC Championship to the pre-cheating Broncos.) They almost matched it in Week 4 of the 1984 season when they started out 4-0 after winning the Super Bowl. (The smaller spike in between those two bigger spikes was a Super Bowl win in 1980.)

In fact, from Week 8 of 1975 through Week 7 of 1987, the Raiders lived at a level above the highest level ever achieved in Chiefsland.

But is there some good news in this story? Yes.

While the Raiders had a very high index for many years, they gave it all away and more from the mid-80s through the mid-90s, riding a mind-boggling 50-point drop. In Week 15 of the 1997 season, a 30-0 drubbing by our very own Kansas City Chiefs put the Raiders' index in the red for the first time since Week 10 of the 1967 season.

The Raiders came up for air after they went under, peaking at an index of 19.091 the night before they encountered the buzz saw of Jon Gruden's Buccaneers in the 2002 season's Super Bowl.

From that point, it's been a journey to the center of the earth as they've list nearly 50 index points AGAIN. They dropped below zero in Week 14 of the 2004 season, and my oh my. They currently stand at -30.580, which is 6 points below the worst index ever recorded by the Chiefs.