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Old 09-23-2024, 12:51 PM  
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DVOA and Postseason odds tracking
Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

3rd Ovr.
9th Off.
4th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds


96%.2 chance AFC West title
76.4% chance 1 seed (1st)
64.9% chance AFCCG App (1st)
38.6% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.7% chance SB Win (2nd)
5.7% chance 17-0 (1st)
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Old 10-14-2024, 12:45 PM   #31
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According to DVOA, our offense is better than our defense?
Doesn't make sense.
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Old 10-14-2024, 12:53 PM   #32
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Doesn't make sense.

Yeah, I’m wondering which metrics they’re basing that assessment on.

Our rushing yardage average per game is smack dab in the middle of the league. YPC is in the bottom third.

Pat is obviously having an off year statistically so the passing game numbers aren’t there.

Red zone percentage has to be terrible.

I mean, based on the eye test, the offense looks really good between the 20s, which is nice. But our defense has looked really good all year.
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Old 10-14-2024, 01:04 PM   #33
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Doesn't make sense.
Might have to do with adjusting to the level of the defenses they've played. They absolutely thrashed the Saints all game (despite not completing drives at the goal line) and the Saints were #2 ranked defensively coming into the game.
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Old 10-14-2024, 01:28 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by ThaVirus View Post
Yeah, I’m wondering which metrics they’re basing that assessment on.

Our rushing yardage average per game is smack dab in the middle of the league. YPC is in the bottom third.

Pat is obviously having an off year statistically so the passing game numbers aren’t there.

Red zone percentage has to be terrible.

I mean, based on the eye test, the offense looks really good between the 20s, which is nice. But our defense has looked really good all year.
The only bad thing with the defense has been opening drives. Through 4 games, they were the worst in the league for both yardage and points allowed on opening drives: 60+ yard scoring drive to begin all 4 games. They finally had a good opening drive against the Saints when they got the interception on Carr.
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Old 10-14-2024, 01:43 PM   #35
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Chiefs need to start campaigning in states we are unlikely to win. I'm expecting a rally this weekend in California. While it's not typically a red state, Mahomes polled well there in 2022.
Heh this reminds me...I live in North Carolina and there is a shitload of Buffalo transplants here. In 2022 or 2021 you'd see those "Elect Allen/Diggs '22" signs everywhere.

Those were the first thing I thought of when Diggs was traded. You don't see those any longer
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Old 10-14-2024, 01:55 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by ThaVirus View Post
Our rushing yardage average per game is smack dab in the middle of the league. YPC is in the bottom third.
Chiefs are the #1 offense in rushing success rate.

Run game is far better than those stats indicate.
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Old 10-15-2024, 10:12 AM   #37
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https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

4th Ovr.
9th Off.
8th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds

90.7% chance AFC West title
49.8% 1 seed (1st)
52.0% chance AFCCG App (1st)
28.5% AFCCG Win (1st)
16.3% chance SB Win (2nd)
1.2% chance 17-0 (1st)
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Old 10-15-2024, 10:49 AM   #38
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Really hard to see the Chiefs failing to win 12 games this year.

Just sweeping the West (which is a disaster and we already won @LAC) and beating Carolina and Cleveland gets us to 12 wins.

That means we can lose to every good team on the schedule.

13 almost certainly locks up the 1, especially if we beat Houston.
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Old 10-21-2024, 08:35 AM   #39
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BIG boost

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds

92.1% chance AFC West title
63.2% 1 seed (1st)
58.6% chance AFCCG App (1st)
34.6% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.2% chance SB Win (1st)
3.1% chance 17-0 (1st)



BUT NOT HERE

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Old 10-21-2024, 08:35 AM   #40
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Old 10-21-2024, 09:19 AM   #41
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PFR has this as the best team of the Reid era

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Old 10-21-2024, 09:29 AM   #42
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I can't believe we're only at 35% chance to win the AFCCG.

You gotta put that at 50%. With a 40% chance at least to win the Super Bowl.
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Old 10-21-2024, 09:43 AM   #43
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I can't believe we're only at 35% chance to win the AFCCG.

You gotta put that at 50%. With a 40% chance at least to win the Super Bowl.
The percentage is low, because we have to get there first. Whatever our percentage chance of getting there is, our chance of winning the AFCCG will be lower. Just the way the math works.

They’re giving us like a 60% chance of winning the AFCCG if we get there.
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Old 10-22-2024, 07:52 AM   #44
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Old 10-22-2024, 08:12 AM   #45
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The algorithm really giving those frauds alotta credit for beating up on Booker and the broken WRs last night huh?
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