Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by lewdog

More downturn coming when unemployment numbers come out?

Logically there should be but the bettor in me thinks not. Should have blew a breaker Monday but nah, that didn't happen.

ES futures are up for whatever reason.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Just a matter of how long this drags out to me. If we think there's a good chance that at least some of society will open up in a month or two, 30% seems way too high. If this is a 6+ month situation, I don't think it's out of the question that it could go that high.

Yeah. I’m pretty sure everybody would be all for rolling with the virus if unemployment even got to 15%.

Think about what 30% would look like in 6 months. 6 Months is just shy of October. Yes. The top of that chart is 11% Do you really think dudes will be cool with quarantine for The rest of spring, all of summer and most of fall?

I don’t.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

ES futures are up for whatever reason.

Aaaaaand now they plunked.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Yeah. I’m pretty sure everybody would be all for rolling with the virus if unemployment even got to 15%.

Think about what 30% would look like in 6 months. 6 Months is just shy of October. Yes. The top of that chart is 11% Do you really think dudes will be cool with quarantine for The rest of spring, all of summer and most of fall?

I don’t.

People are already getting tired of it

There’s no chance it won’t burn people out on it

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Yeah. I’m pretty sure everybody would be all for rolling with the virus if unemployment even got to 15%.

Think about what 30% would look like in 6 months. 6 Months is just shy of October. Yes. The top of that chart is 11% Do you really think dudes will be cool with quarantine for The rest of spring, all of summer and most of fall?

I don’t.

2008 was the "top" of the economy partially collapsing down on other parts which were faltering or susceptible to failing. It was a runner in a race in ill-fitting shoes and then pulled both Achilles' trying not to blow its kneecaps out.

In this case, the economy as a runner is on PEDs and running at a speed it shouldn't physically reach wherein it crashed into wall that is an indefinite lockdown thanks to the ChiCom Cough.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

2008 was the "top" of the economy partially collapsing down on other parts which were faltering or susceptible to failing. It was a runner in a race in ill-fitting shoes and then pulled both Achilles' trying not to blow its kneecaps out.

In this case, the economy as a runner is on PEDs and running at a speed it shouldn't physically reach wherein it crashed into wall that is an indefinite lockdown thanks to the ChiCom Cough.

Yeah maybe. I’m way out of my depth because I haven’t paid attention to Any of the economic indicators for a decade. Accordingly I don’t have any idea what condition different sectors are in.

A few things are different. 08 was mostly a liquidity problem then the automakers went to ****. But it appears that the government is unwilling to let a liquidity situation exist here. The liquidity problem was because the banks ****ed themselves on the dumbass mortgage backed security debacle. One would HOPE the banks aren’t operating with similar ****tardery propping up their equity statements.

The other thing with the mortgages is when everything went to **** massive swaths of the population became immediately insolvent because of 0 equity loans on their house that were then devalued. My understanding is 0 equity loans don’t exist anymore so hopefully that won’t happen again.

But the liquidity problem was weird. Businesses (including the one I was working for) couldn’t get revolving credit so everything ground to a halt real quick. The. When they could get it it was ****ing expensive despite low fed funds rate. So that kicked out projects and expansions and shit. It seems like they’re sensitive to that. So that too is unlikely.

Then the automakers disaster accounted for a lot of unemployment numbers that year. Fords not great. Airlines are going to have layoffs. Boeing is eating ass. But I’m not sure I see the massive industry wide catastrophes happening here. Well maybe cruise lines.

Now, I agree that the growth was unsustainable and the national debt as a % of GDP most certainly is. Debt numbers aren’t to a watershed yet IMO. And if things don’t grind down for multiple months like they did in 08, I don’t see massive cascading failures. That’s why I said they’d roll with the virus over wrecking the economy if it goes on too long. And if we’ve found a bottom and start working up i think you can reasonably say that retraced the unsustainable moves and the economy can be back in balance.

And as far as criminally stupid stock prices I don’t see anything as irresponsible as the .com bubble.

I just don’t see 30%. Like I said I haven’t paid ****all for attention in a decade so I could be missing massive data points. But WTF do I know? I’ve just been hearing about this shit forever. The economy is always in the edge of tanking.

In fact, this guy did some pretty good work on seasonality in grains so I had lunch with him. He brought this client with him that he had advised to invest heavily in metals. So this ****lehead sold his combines and a binsite and used all the proceeds to buy gold and silver and was considering not buying any corn or bean seed and buying metals instead of putting a crop out. Because goddamn the world was going to end. Right ****ing now. I can’t remember if it was the top or if there was another leg up, but it was close. I tried to be nice but I’m sure it was all over my face that this ****lehead is ruining his life over some Fox News commercial bullshit. My god man.

Bottom line there is always some ratio or indicator or analysis or what the **** ever that says the worlds going to ****ing end; stock market is going to fill some ridiculous gap at 900 or some shit, the last time so and so did this 9 months later we had 20% interest, some ****ing lunar cycle says we are due for a world war, If you put the Dow on this here perspective it looks exactly like the 1637 tulip bubble, sunspots are going to cause a famine, the moon is liked up in perfect correlation to this dudes asshole When he bangs a hooker that’s going to wreck the currencies.

So I could be all the way wrong, but I’ve heard an awful lot of noise and I’ll probably look at projections of 30% unemployment with a bit of skepticism. I’m not trying to be a dickhead, but 30% seems pretty wild with unemployment where we are now and other than Boeing and some cruise lines, there isn’t anything I see that is unreasonably unhealthy.

[scho63]

What part of the roller coaster are we on today?

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

So I could be all the way wrong, but I’ve heard an awful lot of noise and I’ll probably look at projections of 30% unemployment with a bit of skepticism. I’m not trying to be a dickhead, but 30% seems pretty wild with unemployment where we are now and other than Boeing and some cruise lines, there isn’t anything I see that is unreasonably unhealthy.

The 30% number was quoted by the Treasury Secretary if Congress did nothing. It’s a high number pulled out of his ass to put pressure on Congress to get something done.

It looks like we have a plan but I think we'll still see a lot of unhealthy companies collapse. 4 mortgage REITs defaulted a few days back. They aren't going to be able to give every restaurant, cinema, etc. shut down right now a loan. Winsteads went under recently

It'll be interesting to see, will people go right back to the movies or other activities the moment this ends? I'm not so sure. Though, I think it helps kids aren't as susceptible from a fear perspective.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

The 30% number was quoted by the Treasury Secretary if Congress did nothing. It’s a high number pulled out of his ass to put pressure on Congress to get something done.

It looks like we have a plan but I think we'll still see a lot of unhealthy companies collapse. 4 mortgage REITs defaulted a few days back. They aren't going to be able to give every restaurant, cinema, etc. shut down right now a loan. Winsteads went under recently

It'll be interesting to see, will people go right back to the movies or other activities the moment this ends? I'm not so sure. Though, I think it helps kids aren't as susceptible from a fear perspective.

Fair enough

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by scho63

What part of the roller coaster are we on today?

The down part.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Strongside

The down part.

Got any more IBIOs?

[Discuss Thrower]

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

I jinxed that shit with last night's post LOL.

[Discuss Thrower]

St. Louis Fed calling 30% unemployment by June.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

St. Louis Fed calling 30% unemployment by June.

I'm still guessing they take their chances with the pandemic as opposed to taking their chances with a depression.