*****The Josh Simmons Thread*****

[Dante84]

More to come!

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— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) April 25, 2025

Several teams agree: Josh Simmons had best tape of any OT last year. And they aren't very concerned with recovery on the torn patella tendon. More of the concern is maturity/character. But he's going to the ideal, veteran-laden place.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) April 25, 2025

the #chiefs get LT Josh Simmons out of Ohio State. If Simmons didn't suffer a torn patellar tendon he would have been the first tackle off the board. I had one team tell me he was the most athletic and talented tackle tape they watched. There are some maturity issues, but this…

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 25, 2025

The #Chiefs have selected #OSU OT Josh Simmons at No. 32, a player recovering nicely from a torn patellar tendon. They are comfortable with his rehab and did endless homework on it. https://t.co/awdb0JhPed

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2025

The #Chiefs are selecting Ohio State LT Josh Simmons at No. 32 to close out Round 1.

A key addition to bolster the offensive line in front of Patrick Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/oBx2CjzmCe

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 25, 2025

[In58men]

Originally Posted by dannybcaitlyn

Are we talking about the Rick that let Justin Houston play with a torn Acl and was one of the ones that gave Andy Reid info that Eric Berry would be like day to day for 12 games out of 16? lol
That doesn’t sound encouraging.

He’s still employed for a reason lol.

I’m not worried about Simmons, they had months to evaluate him. They know more than any of us.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by dannybcaitlyn

Are we talking about the Rick that let Justin Houston play with a torn Acl and was one of the ones that gave Andy Reid info that Eric Berry would be like day to day for 12 games out of 16? lol
That doesn’t sound encouraging.

Holy ****, imagine being this ignorant.

Burkholder is one of the best in the business, dumbass.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Mosbonian

Unfortunately I am not as comfortable still after a night of sleeping on it. Yes he is a steal if he truly recovers from a pretty serious injury like he had.

But if he isn't as well recovered as they are saying then we have wasted another first round pick....and what concerns me is the possibility of the team wanting to see a long term replacement at LT that they may not have as discerning an eye.

I look at it like this. If you’re the Pittsburgh Steelers who are a qb away from being really good but are always too good to fail… they’ve tried to get a qb year after year after year with their shitty draft spot. If Caleb Williams or Jayden or Drake maye fell into their lap last year but he just had Andrew luck shoulder surgery would you pass him up? The alternative is to play it safe and roll with everyone else’s table scraps like Russell Wilson. So I don’t think we can compare it to draft day whiffs like CEH or even FAU. This is taking a chance at a position we can’t otherwise get

So considering all our struggles finding LT which seems to be as difficult to find as a qb, why not take the risk? Is the bust potential any worse than any other OT we could have taken? Do we really think that changes this year if we took someone else? I don’t feel like the bust potential is all that different but the upside is way higher.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Yo Murphy.

Drafted by us. Only 2 in the last 34 years despite being a factory.

Shut the **** up

[ChiefsHawk]

Patrick Mahomes.....Go watch the super bowl.....Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs might have the goat at QB and is currently being Andrew Luck'd last year and people are whining because the Chiefs took a risk. We lost the damn super bowl because the tackles were worthless. Stop whining and be happy they are addressing the biggest weakness on the team.

[In58men]

If somebody said Chiefs would draft Josh Simmons and he comes with an extra 5th rounder I think most of us would have done this.

[JimNasium]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Reminder from kccrow:



Let's talk about the data set I shared in March regarding Patellar injuries in the NFL, since not many care to read. It's here: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article...rmance%20level
31/56 (55%) players returned to the NFL from a patellar injury (RTP).
Of those, 13/50 (26%) returned to play as many games post-injury as they had pre-injury (RTP Games).
Only 8/50 (16%) returned to start as many games post-injury as they had pre-injury (RTP Starts).
The 6 (11%) in the remainder, despite returning to the NFL, never saw another snap.
Of the 50 that saw snaps, only 12 (24%) returned to prior PFF level of performance at any point (RTP Performance)
Among those 12, 7 (14%) returned to prior performance after 1 year and 5 (10%) after 2 years.
OL specifically was 6/17 (35%) RTP, 1/16 (6%) RTP Games, 1/16 (6%) RTP Starts, and 2/16 (13%) RTP Performance with 1 RTPP (6%) after 1 year and 1 (6%) after 2 years.

We are not talking about great odds here people. The media and agents can cook this up howevery they want to cook it. Its a blood-flow injury, so it's going to heal up just fine. Healing up doesn't mean he's ever going to be able to play the same. The elasticity of that tendon is forever affected. His ability to generate power and torque from his quads to the ground is forever affected.

You can look deeper at the stats if you want. Purely looking at OL, he has a 13% chance of ever returning to play at his prior level of performance (this favors Simmons over RTP Starts or RTP Games). Data says 83% of NFL first-round picks on the offensive line hit. So, chances are you'll play somewhere on the OL. 59% actually hit at OT, so a healthy portion of guys drafted to be OTs end up playing some other position.

So if he has a 13% shot of returning to his prior form and a 59% chance of playing OT, then he falls somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8% chance he'll make it as an OT. He has about an 11% chance of ever being anything on the OL.

Is that what you want from your 1st round pick, folks? I don't. In fact, that screams 7th rounder or UDFA. That doesn't even scream 2nd or 3rd rounder.

I'd be willing to take a shot in the dark in round 3. I mean, there is that remote potential that he ends up defying all odds. It's not due to his youth because less experienced, and younger players actually have worse odds in the study. It's merely one of those "so you're telling me there's a chance" situations.

Just a guess here, but I don’t think this analysis is statistically sound and I don’t think anything including PFF scores will make it through peer review.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by In58men

If somebody said Chiefs would draft Josh Simmons and he comes with an extra 5th rounder I think most of us would have done this.

Still have the 5th year option too.

[chiefzilla1501]

I don’t think we can afford to be picky at this position. The choice is to
A) pay a good veteran a mega contract we can’t afford (on the off chance he ever even hits free agency)
B) overpay for an average player
C) to take a high risk shot / low upside shot in the draft

This is a rare chance to pick plan D which is to get a higher risk player with significantly better upside. When will we ever have a chance again during the Reid/Mahomes window to ever be in a position to grab a guy with this kind of upside in the draft again?

[srvy]

Broke dicks who will miss most of the season with a devastating injury very few come back from especially at OT is rolling loaded dice.

[dannybcaitlyn]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Holy ****, imagine being this ignorant.

Burkholder is one of the best in the business, dumbass.

Yet I provided proof he’s not the best and you’re just going by word of mouth. They also say Andy Heck is also one the best in the business. I guess you believe that too! Go back to your land of rainbows and unicorns dipshit!

[Chris Meck]

Guys, nobody thinks a healthy Josh Simmons is a bad pick. Nobody.

The question is whether he will EVER be the same player again, and the historical evidence is that it's really unlikely that he will be.

The folks against this pick were against it because it's so damned unlikely, but aren't rooting for him to fail. It's just a HUGE risk.

After sleeping on it, I'm a bit more philosophical about things. No risk it, no bisquit. I'm trusting Veach and Burkholder and I assume they have information that we don't.

If this works out, it's maybe the second best pick in the Andy Reid era. If it doesn't, well, it's not like we haven't had other first round disappointments.

In a vacuum, it doesn't seem like a risk worth taking; the chance of success is so low. But it's not a vacuum, it's an individual, and I'm trusting the doctors here.

Let's roll.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by dannybcaitlyn

Yet I provided proof he’s not the best and you’re just going by word of mouth. They also say Andy Heck is also one the best in the business. I guess you believe that too! Go back to your land of rainbows and unicorns dipshit!

The fact that you had to go back like a decade to find something bad to say speaks volumes, dumbass.

[Chiefnj2]

I’m certain the Chiefs went out and consulted with a dozen orthopedic knee specialists before concluding he’s worth the risk. This wasn’t a decision from one single team physician and I’m sure they have the actual real data of athletes recovering from the injury in recent years.

Debating Simmons’ knee is like going into DC and debating vaccines.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by dannybcaitlyn

Are we talking about the Rick that let Justin Houston play with a torn Acl and was one of the ones that gave Andy Reid info that Eric Berry would be like day to day for 12 games out of 16? lol
That doesn’t sound encouraging.

I'm still skeptical of the Simmons pick, but the Chiefs having some of the best injury luck in the NFL (knock on wood) since 2013 says he's pretty damn good.

I can only think of one caatastrophic injury year that befell this team in that span, and that was 2014.

Not even the Eagles can say that. And compare that to a bad injury team like the Chargers. They've had like 8 horrible injury seasons since then lol