Let's talk about the 49ers (Super Bowl Edition)

[TLO]

Discuss.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Chiefs are back to a 2-point dog.

I like it, but it makes no sense at all to me.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Has Shanahan ever lost to Andy by less than 10? If so, I can’t recall it.

And yet he’s a 2-pt favorite in this spot. Lol.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Has Shanahan ever lost to Andy by less than 10? If so, I can’t recall it.

And yet he’s a 2-pt favorite in this spot. Lol.

44-23 last year. 31-20 in the SB. 38-27 in '18.

[digger]

Can we take the brakes away from Andy? Or we good with just a one score win?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Chiefs are back to a 2-point dog.

I like it, but it makes no sense at all to me.

They asked for this

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Just the through of Brock Purdy beating Patrick makes me sick as a ****ing dog.

Absolutely cannot let that happen under any circumstances.

The years Brady lost to Eli were bc the NYG had an incredible defense and front 4. He lost to Foles bc Belichick defense completely collapsed. That year the Patriots defense was rest bad starting from Alex puttting 42 on them in the opener.

This 49ers team isn't as good as the one we played in LIV, especially on defense. I really think that defense is not a top 20 unit and the only reason they were ranked as one was bc they played absolutely terrible offenses.

Either we don't show up at all (not likely) have devastating injuries (not likely) or they get lucky with some David Tyree bullshit

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz

Is there good QB analysis breakdown of Brock Purdy? I don't really think he sucks, but I also don't think he's doing anything spectacular. Gotta see the tape to know what he's about.

[DrunkBassGuitar]

Brock Purdy is better than Jimmy G but he's not as good as Allen or Lamar

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by DrunkBassGuitar

Brock Purdy is better than Jimmy G but he's not as good as Allen or Lamar

2019 Jimmy was better than what we have seen lately too. Brock is still better, but I don't know that it's by that much relative to '19.

[Direckshun]

I think the 49ers have a ton of weapons on offense, but there's no chance Spags won't have a good gameplan for Purdy. And if you have a good gameplan for Purdy, then all those weapons will be downgraded some, along with Sneed smothering Deebo and Gay back on the field. The Omenihu loss hurts, but it almost doesn't matter because Spags can generate a ton of pressures off blitzes. The Ravens had a very good offensive line and a better quarterback, and we still put him in the dirt four times.

The X factor is McCaffrey. If he explodes then all bets are off. And I do think he's going to get some gains. But the Chiefs defense simply isn't going to give up more than 24 points. My guess is the 49ers get 23 points.

Can the Chiefs offense beat that? Because I think the 49ers have a really good defense -- but it's not a defense built to smother us like the Ravens was. Everything the 49ers do well on defense, the Ravens did better. The difference, I suppose, is that the Ravens put a half on film of smothering and shutting down the Chiefs. It wouldn't surprise me if the 49ers stole some of those concepts.

But it doesn't matter. If you're telling Mahomes that he needs to put up 24 points to win the Super Bowl, he's going to put up 24 points.

So the rest of the analysis kind of breaks down for me. The 49ers have smart, athletic linebackers, and a disciplined secondary. Their passrush is very strong.

And just... none of it matters. Andy Reid, Mahomes, Pacheco, Kelce, an offensive line playing at the top of its game right now, Rice, with choice contributions from everybody else... they're just going to get it done.

I give the Chiefs 60/40 odds on this one. The 49ers have enough individual players to make this game winnable if a few of them play at their absolute peak. But the Chiefs are entering this game playing downhill. The 49ers are going to have to fight up uphill.

Did I read it correctly when I said that if the Chiefs win this game, they will have beaten the toughest DVOA opponents en route to a Super Bowl in NFL history? Because entering this season, I very much got the notion that we were entering Prime Mahomes territory for the next 6 years, and I think we're there. It's pretty clear at this point that weather cannot stop him, spread passing offenses cannot stop him, run-heavy physical teams cannot stop him, teams with elite QBs in their own right cannot stop him, the best passrushes in the NFL cannot stop him, playing with the worst WR corps in the NFL cannot stop him, hostile home crowds cannot stop him, ball hawking physical defenses cannot stop him, blitzing defenses cannot stop him, static zone defenses cannot stop him, teams that blanket Kelce cannot stop him, teams that do everything right cannot stop him.

The 49ers present a ton of challenges, from a versatile offense to elite players across their defense. But none of that is going to stop him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz

Is there good QB analysis breakdown of Brock Purdy? I don't really think he sucks, but I also don't think he's doing anything spectacular. Gotta see the tape to know what he's about.

I think what's interesting about Purdy is that he's just playing with his balls out.

He has NO qualms about making a mistake. He's also not out to prove anyone right or wrong.

This isn't Lamar proving he can be a pocket passer or Allen proving he can play mistake-free football.

Purdy isn't leaving ANYTHING on the field. If he sees a window, he's firing. If he doesn't, he's running. He's just playing so free out there. He's playing fearless football.

He's playing like Mister Irrelevant who knows that he was never supposed to be here. If he fails - who cares? If he succeeds, he's a hero.

It's fascinating to watch. It's Baker Mayfield back before he started getting picked at. Even 1st year starter Mahomes wasn't completely devoid of ****s to give.

Purdy sure seems to be. I don't think he's terribly good but his mentality is such that he doesn't seem to care. And if he gets hot for a couple quarters, you can combine that with his lack of conscious and get a real heater built up for the 9ers.

But if he gets caught up in the bright lights in this game, he'll get destroyed. The only hope the 49ers have is that he continues to play like there's no tomorrow.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think what's interesting about Purdy is that he's just playing with his balls out.

He has NO qualms about making a mistake. He's also not out to prove anyone right or wrong.

This isn't Lamar proving he can be a pocket passer or Allen proving he can play mistake-free football.

Purdy isn't leaving ANYTHING on the field. If he sees a window, he's firing. If he doesn't, he's running. He's just playing so free out there. He's playing fearless football.

He's playing like Mister Irrelevant who knows that he was never supposed to be here. If he fails - who cares? If he succeeds, he's a hero.

It's fascinating to watch. It's Baker Mayfield back before he started getting picked at. Even 1st year starter Mahomes was completely devoid of ****s to give.

Purdy sure seems to be. I don't think he's terribly good but his mentality is such that he doesn't seem to care. And if he gets hot for a couple quarters, you can combine that with his lack of conscious and get a real heater built up for the 9ers.

But if he gets caught up in the bright lights in this game, he'll get destroyed. The only hope the 49ers have is that he continues to play like there's no tomorrow.

I feel like not having a bye this week would be good for him. Keep playing with less time to actually realize where you are and what’s at stake.

Whether he likes it or not, he’s getting the spotlight. If he loses, it’ll be on him because we all know those weapons are elite. He’s about to have more microphones and cameras in his face than ever before.

Let’s see how he responds.

[duncan_idaho]

This an even more drastic styles-make-fights thing than the Ravens game was.

When you look at the 49ers, they are a drastically heavy zone team. Only the Bengals and Saints were more heavily zone teams. They don't have a lot of talent on the back end, and their front 4 pass rush is not THAT special this year, though Bosa is still a heavy game-wrecker (but one KC has shown it can handle/neutralize, even with Austin Wylie as his primary pass blocker).

This Chiefs offense is just not going to struggle against zone. Kelce is too good. Mahomes is too good. Rice is too good against it. Reid's scheme absolutely blowtorches cover 3.

I expect the Chiefs to efficiently and effectively move the ball. If the 49ers go to man, I don't think they have an effective answer for Kelce between their personnel and lack of reliance on man concepts.

It will come down to whether the 49ers offense - which is, admittedly, absolutely loaded at the skill positions - can do the same to the Chiefs defense. I expect it to have more success than the Ravens because their talent level is higher and Brock Purdy is a more competent passer than Lamar Jackson.

I think the Chiefs can get home against the 49ers OL outside of Trent Williams. The question is, I guess, if they can do enough against the 49ers run game to get stops.

Chiefs offense is going to put up 27-30 points, I feel. If the Chiefs' D ends the season not having allowed more than 27 points in a game, pretty confident the Chiefs win.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

This an even more drastic styles-make-fights thing than the Ravens game was.

When you look at the 49ers, they are a drastically heavy zone team. Only the Bengals and Saints were more heavily zone teams. They don't have a lot of talent on the back end, and their front 4 pass rush is not THAT special this year, though Bosa is still a heavy game-wrecker (but one KC has shown it can handle/neutralize, even with Austin Wylie as his primary pass blocker).

This Chiefs offense is just not going to struggle against zone. Kelce is too good. Mahomes is too good. Rice is too good against it. Reid's scheme absolutely blowtorches cover 3.

I expect the Chiefs to efficiently and effectively move the ball. If the 49ers go to man, I don't think they have an effective answer for Kelce between their personnel and lack of reliance on man concepts.

It will come down to whether the 49ers offense - which is, admittedly, absolutely loaded at the skill positions - can do the same to the Chiefs defense. I expect it to have more success than the Ravens because their talent level is higher and Brock Purdy is a more competent passer than Lamar Jackson.

I think the Chiefs can get home against the 49ers OL outside of Trent Williams. The question is, I guess, if they can do enough against the 49ers run game to get stops.

Chiefs offense is going to put up 27-30 points, I feel. If the Chiefs' D ends the season not having allowed more than 27 points in a game, pretty confident the Chiefs win.

Let's be real, the Chiefs path to losing pretty much comes down to turnover differential.

If they're even or + there, I don't see a loss in the cards.

[JimNasium]

**** Donk spawn forever