Chiefs Let’s talk about the Chargers - Page 27

RunKC · 09-11-2022, 05:37 PM

Quick turnaround. Amazon’s new platformed TNF

First thought: love the offense now. Worries about injuries and OT’s. Mack and Bosa had a combined 4.5 sacks today. But they played the Raiders OL.

They won but nearly lost to a bad team. Very beatable IMO

crispystl · 09-15-2022, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Didn’t we have like 4 or 5 turnovers and several key players out? And still barely lost?

W!
B!
F!

That is very true, and I just watched the highlights again and man they torched Sorenson.

I_Bolt_WhenWeLose · 09-15-2022, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

You'll shouldn't worry too much about San Diego in this one. They're missing 2 of their best offensive & defensive weapons. JC Jackson isn't gonna play. They'll probably put 2 or 3 more players on IR just driving to the stadium. Even then it's just too much to ask going into arrowhead on a short week, especially in week 2. Chargers starters didn't play at all in preseason so will still be beat to hell from week 1. Plus they are still developing chemistry from not playing. Their Oline looked like dogshit in week 1 they couldn't run block or pass block. Herbert didn't get sacked but was pressured on nearly every snap. Joe Lombardi is also not a good play caller. He runs the Sean Payton Saints offense, but he's got a guy with one of the top 3 arms in the NFL whose strength is throwing accurate lasers 65 yds down field. But he decides he wants to run the ball & have Herbert play 5 yd dink & dunk ball like 40 yr old Drew Brees. Once every 4 or 5 games they decide to utilize Mike Williams down field a bit but he's usually not involved much.

J.C. Jackson is gonna play. Its confirmed now.

FlaChief58 · 09-15-2022, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boltfanseattle

J.C. Jackson is gonna play. Its confirmed now.

It wont matter. The ass kicking you're about to get will be the same either way

RaidersOftheCellar · 09-15-2022, 04:59 PM

All 10 of the Athletic’s picks are for KC. That’s a little shocking.

**Rausch** · 09-15-2022, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

28-24 is the perfect score for Vegas...if KC wins.

And what evidence do you have that something underhanded or illegal would happen in Vegas or due to its influence?

**Rausch** · 09-15-2022, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shiver Me Timbers

If the Chiefs come out with 1/2 the focus they did in AZ they will win by double digits. I think that was the most in sync first game I have ever seen out of the Chiefs and a road game no less
Chiefs 39 Chargers 10

It's that reversion to the mean that worries me...

Halfcan · 09-15-2022, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boltfanseattle

J.C. Jackson is gonna play. Its confirmed now.

Dumb move by the coach- risking his long-term health for 1 game.

Good luck keeping up with MVS and Hardman.

poolboy · 09-15-2022, 05:14 PM

Charger are going for every 4th down because they know they cant beat us with field goals

smithandrew051 · 09-15-2022, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crispystl

That is very true, and I just watched the highlights again and man they torched Sorenson.

CEH was running effectively in that game, but the fumbles were a killer.

If I’m to believe the that this is his year, then we’ll see it all come together tonight.

Revenge game. Prime time. At home. Weak run defense.

It’s his time to shine.

BlackOp · 09-15-2022, 05:57 PM

Money shifted hard on the point spread...which is excellent news for KC. It's essentially a wash...so KC is free to score at will without eclipsing the 54 total points.

The game, from a sporting perspective, just got a lot more interesting...

One of two thing have to happen or both for Vegas to make money/break even....total score under 54 or Chargers win.

RaidersOftheCellar · 09-15-2022, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Money shifted hard on the point spread...which is excellent news for KC. It's essentially a wash...so KC is free to score at will without eclipsing the 54 total points.

The game, from a sporting perspective, just got a lot more interesting...

One of two thing have to happen or both for Vegas to make money/break even....total score under 54 or Chargers win.

A 35-17 win works for me...

BlackOp · 09-15-2022, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Here is the where the money is at...12 pm gameday. Spread went up to 4.5 from 4 last night.

96% on the game being over 54 points, 77% on KC winning by more than 4.5. The BIG factor is % of money bet...which say 96% of all dollars is on KC.

This is interesting as 44% of the point spread is on LA but only 23% of the money.

Money is what's ultimately important...not percentages.

From a strictly casino vantage, the most points the Chiefs can score by while still maintaining both the 96% o/u and 77% spread is 28...while the Chargers scoring 24. Anything under that 28 gets the job done for Vegas as long as there is not more than 4 points between the team.

Chargers can score as much as they want in a win...as long as the total points dont exceed 53

Looking at the data...the odds of a low scoring game are extremely high. 96% of the money is insane...Vegas will lose it's ass if KC blows them up.

This has potential funny business written all over it...when the outcome HAS to go a certain way and work within narrow parameters. It's completely lopsided.

28-24 is the perfect score for Vegas...if KC wins.

*chuckles....

Megatron96 · 09-15-2022, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

I cannot believe you fail to see the fault in this logic.

Lol, okay.

Except that the top 5 HCs in NFL history straight up laugh at metrics, and the 'top' metrics HCs are a punchline in the NFL.

By the way, Brandon Staley says hi. Again. So much for metrics, buddy.

thanks, but no thanks. I'll hang with the coaches that might be metrics stupid, but jeez, i don't know, they keep winning games. Like over and over, for decades at a time. Well, gosh, maybe they know something the bean-counters don't?

A Salt Weapon · 09-16-2022, 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Here is the where the money is at...12 pm gameday. Spread went up to 4.5 from 4 last night.

96% on the game being over 54 points, 77% on KC winning by more than 4.5. The BIG factor is % of money bet...which say 96% of all dollars is on KC.

This is interesting as 44% of the point spread is on LA but only 23% of the money.

Money is what's ultimately important...not percentages.

From a strictly casino vantage, the most points the Chiefs can score by while still maintaining both the 96% o/u and 77% spread is 28...while the Chargers scoring 24. Anything under that 28 gets the job done for Vegas as long as there is not more than 4 points between the team.

Chargers can score as much as they want in a win...as long as the total points dont exceed 53

Looking at the data...the odds of a low scoring game are extremely high. 96% of the money is insane...Vegas will lose it's ass if KC blows them up.

This has potential funny business written all over it...when the outcome HAS to go a certain way and work within narrow parameters. It's completely lopsided.

28-24 is the perfect score for Vegas...if KC wins.

Things like this have been happening way to consistently for it to be a coincidence. You nailed the score. Vegas always wins.

O.city · 09-16-2022, 08:01 AM

Everyone needs to understand where the Chargers are in their development vs where the Chiefs are.

The Chargers are where the Chiefs were in 2018 with the added bonus of having a Chiefs 2013 type holdovers from the previous draft cycle. Derwin is just a fantastic player. Bosa is a great player at DE. Adderley, Samuel etc.

They've drafted well, plus they have a legit QB on a rookie deal. So they could go get JC Jackson, sign Mike Williams, trade for Mack etc. Basically, the Chiefs 2018.

09-11-2022, 05:37 PM
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $389611	Let’s talk about the Chargers Quick turnaround. Amazon’s new platformed TNF First thought: love the offense now. Worries about injuries and OT’s. Mack and Bosa had a combined 4.5 sacks today. But they played the Raiders OL. They won but nearly lost to a bad team. Very beatable IMO
Posts: 48,329

09-15-2022, 04:59 PM	#394
RaidersOftheCellar MVP Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: Lawrence, KS Casino cash: $1260400	All 10 of the Athletic’s picks are for KC. That’s a little shocking.
Posts: 16,340

09-15-2022, 05:14 PM	#398
poolboy Veteran Join Date: Feb 2019 Casino cash: $-249600	Charger are going for every 4th down because they know they cant beat us with field goals
Posts: 3,073

09-15-2022, 05:57 PM	#400
BlackOp MVP Join Date: Oct 2012 Casino cash: $4585267	Money shifted hard on the point spread...which is excellent news for KC. It's essentially a wash...so KC is free to score at will without eclipsing the 54 total points. The game, from a sporting perspective, just got a lot more interesting... One of two thing have to happen or both for Vegas to make money/break even....total score under 54 or Chargers win. Last edited by BlackOp; 09-15-2022 at 06:02 PM..
Posts: 18,513	1 0

09-16-2022, 08:01 AM	#405
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $1164064	Everyone needs to understand where the Chargers are in their development vs where the Chiefs are. The Chargers are where the Chiefs were in 2018 with the added bonus of having a Chiefs 2013 type holdovers from the previous draft cycle. Derwin is just a fantastic player. Bosa is a great player at DE. Adderley, Samuel etc. They've drafted well, plus they have a legit QB on a rookie deal. So they could go get JC Jackson, sign Mike Williams, trade for Mack etc. Basically, the Chiefs 2018.
Posts: 82,841