*****The Patrick Mahomes Thread*****

[Dante84]

IT ****ING HAPPENED



OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

He never really deserved that label.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c.../gamelog/post/

Check how many points his defenses gave up in losses in the playoffs. 51, 37, 45, 31, 37, 44 lol

No one can be expected to be successful dealing with that consistently.

He choked against Jimmy G (low scoring) and Tom Brady, who threw 3 interceptions. Both games at Lambeau.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by DRM08

He choked against Jimmy G (low scoring) and Tom Brady, who threw 3 interceptions. Both games at Lambeau.

Really?

Versus Tampa he had 346 yards passing, 3 TDs and 1 INT. QB rating of 101.6
Versus Green Bay he had 225 yards passing, 0TDs and 0 INT. QB rating of 91.9

He completed 69% of his passes in both games.

I wouldn't say he choked. That's just the narrative when a team loses. Of course the QB must have choked. They were favored in both games.

His career playoff numbers are 45 TDs and 13 INTS. Passer rating of 100.1

The win/loss record isn't great but football is a team sport. There's QBs with multiple SB wins who can't hold a candle to Rodgers.

[FloridaMan88]

Patrick, Brittany Mahomes visit children wounded after Chiefs Victory Rally shooting in hospital | Click on the image to read the full story https://t.co/JFm0ivSv5K

— KMBC (@kmbc) February 16, 2024

[Hammock Parties]

legend

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DRM08

He choked against Jimmy G (low scoring) and Tom Brady, who threw 3 interceptions. Both games at Lambeau.

Yeah - the Brady game was pretty inexcusable. Rodgers had so many opportunities to put that one away and failed.

I don't recall the Grapes game at all but I thought that was maybe the one where they just ran GB into oblivion.

In either event, the difference between having the choker label and not is almost always just one or two big moments. Mahomes, in each of his SBs, had at least one key 'gotta have it' throw that he made. If he doesn't make 2 of those 3, people are going to want to be throwing that label on him.

It's the curse of greatness.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - the Brady game was pretty inexcusable. Rodgers had so many opportunities to put that one away and failed.

I don't recall the Grapes game at all but I thought that was maybe the one where they just ran GB into oblivion.

In either event, the difference between having the choker label and not is almost always just one or two big moments. Mahomes, in each of his SBs, had at least one key 'gotta have it' throw that he made. If he doesn't make 2 of those 3, people are going to want to be throwing that label on him.

It's the curse of greatness.

I believe that was the low scoring game in 2021 with special teams gaffes. Ending with a blocked punt by the 49ers.

They also played in 2019, but the 49ers stomped them.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - the Brady game was pretty inexcusable. Rodgers had so many opportunities to put that one away and failed.

I don't recall the Grapes game at all but I thought that was maybe the one where they just ran GB into oblivion.

In either event, the difference between having the choker label and not is almost always just one or two big moments. Mahomes, in each of his SBs, had at least one key 'gotta have it' throw that he made. If he doesn't make 2 of those 3, people are going to want to be throwing that label on him.

It's the curse of greatness.

Is the Brady game the one where Rodgers could have run into the endzone for a TD but didn't and threw an incomplete pass? Like the dude had nobody in front of him and they were inside the 10.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

Really?

Versus Tampa he had 346 yards passing, 3 TDs and 1 INT. QB rating of 101.6
Versus Green Bay he had 225 yards passing, 0TDs and 0 INT. QB rating of 91.9

He completed 69% of his passes in both games.

I wouldn't say he choked. That's just the narrative when a team loses. Of course the QB must have choked. They were favored in both games.

His career playoff numbers are 45 TDs and 13 INTS. Passer rating of 100.1

The win/loss record isn't great but football is a team sport. There's QBs with multiple SB wins who can't hold a candle to Rodgers.

Rodgers had plenty of chances to win that Tampa game in the 2nd half and blew it. He barely scored any points in the loss to the Niners/Jimmy G. Rodgers was MVP of the league in both of those seasons and his team had major home field advantage against warmer weather teams (Tampa/San Fran).

Rodgers & Green Bay losing those 2 games was not like Mahomes torching Belichick for 31 points in the 2nd half and getting screwed by Dee Ford plus the overtime coinflip rule.

[tk13]

Rodgers is a mix, had a top 5 defense when they won the title, then he had just horrible, horrible defenses for the next few years. But those last couple years, Brady gave him a ton of opportunities to take the NFC title and Rodgers just couldn't do it, and then they lost 13-10 at home to the Niners the next year and laid an egg in the final week against the Lions in his final season. A lot of it isn't his fault, but he definitely had some legit chances and the offense didn't take advantage either.

[DRM08]

Rodgers has always been extremely protective of his TD to INT ratio. He cares a lot about his individual stats, way more than he cares about winning games. So on the surface the stats might look good, but he has had plenty of moments in the Playoffs where he failed to get the job done in clutch situations. Some of that might be protecting himself from interceptions. Some of it might be protecting himself from taking hits in his later years.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Here's a �� of 5 graphs showing how far ahead of his peers Patrick Mahomes is ������

Mahomes’ career playoff EPA/play of 0.312 is not only higher than any other QB with >100 plays since 1999, but also higher than his own regular season mark, despite facing stronger defenses pic.twitter.com/LvHE8z1nRv

— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) February 16, 2024

More GOAT shit (also Lamar is a massive playoff choker).

This one from the thread is mind blowing. The worse things get the better he plays.

Mahomes’ career EPA/play when his team faces a win probability of 5-25% is 0.323 — he plays significantly better when his back is to the wall

Most QBs' EPA/play is much higher when their teams are winning pic.twitter.com/tLXTOXFxaM

— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) February 16, 2024

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Is the Brady game the one where Rodgers could have run into the endzone for a TD but didn't and threw an incomplete pass? Like the dude had nobody in front of him and they were inside the 10.

That’s the one. Idk, though. Rodgers was a plus athlete when he came out of college, but he was like 37 or something in that NFC Championship game. I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that he would have made it before getting creamed.

If anything, Lefleur shares a lot of blame there for electing to kick the field goal and hope to get another possession.

Originally Posted by tk13

Rodgers is a mix, had a top 5 defense when they won the title, then he had just horrible, horrible defenses for the next few years. But those last couple years, Brady gave him a ton of opportunities to take the NFC title and Rodgers just couldn't do it, and then they lost 13-10 at home to the Niners the next year and laid an egg in the final week against the Lions in his final season. A lot of it isn't his fault, but he definitely had some legit chances and the offense didn't take advantage either.

Agreed. Even Mahomes choked in the AFCCG against the Bengals. Brady had his fair share. You won’t win them all.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by tk13

This one from the thread is mind blowing. The worse things get the better he plays.

Mahomes’ career EPA/play when his team faces a win probability of 5-25% is 0.323 — he plays significantly better when his back is to the wall

Most QBs' EPA/play is much higher when their teams are winning pic.twitter.com/tLXTOXFxaM

— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) February 16, 2024

I wonder how much of that is Andy Reid too. It sure as hell seems like Andy’s playcalling is too cutesy and tentative early in games. When you’re down in the 2nd half, you gotta stop calling the bullshit horizontal plays that don’t go anywhere. The scoreboard forces Andy to be more aggressive.

These trailing situations also force a more aggressive tempo where they snap the ball much earlier in the play clock. Mahomes is pretty much unstoppable in the hurry up, no huddle offense. I wish Andy would use it more often.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by DRM08

I wonder how much of that is Andy Reid too. It sure as hell seems like Andy’s playcalling is too cutesy and tentative early in games. When you’re down in the 2nd half, you gotta stop calling the bullshit horizontal plays that don’t go anywhere. The scoreboard forces Andy to be more aggressive.

These trailing situations also force a more aggressive tempo where they snap the ball much earlier in the play clock. Mahomes is pretty much unstoppable in the hurry up, no huddle offense. I wish Andy would use it more often.

To me, the second graph is clear proof that we keep Mahomes on a leash when we're ahead. When we get behind, we let him play and he dominates. In 2018 when he was not leashed and we had a weak defense, he was mowing down defenses like so many fields of wheat.

I'm curious what would happen if we let Mahomes go scorched earth with the defense we have now. I think we would go undefeated and win every game by 20+ points.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I'm curious what would happen if we let Mahomes go scorched earth with the defense we have now. I think we would go undefeated and win every game by 20+ points.

What would happen? I wouldn't have a dick any longer attached, that's what.

But Reid absolutely won't do that.