*****The Patrick Mahomes Thread*****

[Dante84]

IT ****ING HAPPENED



OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Opening game of the season Mahomes had an ADOT of 9.6.

Been about 7.1 since.

Game 1 went poorly, his receivers shit the bed in the 4th quarter, Mahomes has been unwilling to go downfield since.

And it's just unwarranted. Mahomes has gotten almost dead-ass average performance from his receivers. His drop rate is 6.1%. And if my memory serves, that's exactly where we realized that rate tends to end up on the season for the overwhelming majority of receivers.

Wilson's drop rate is 8.6% -- anyone weeping over his receivers? Stroud at 8.5, Goff at 7.8, Jackson at 6.2

But at some point "Mahomes doesn't trust his receivers" became more than a mere explanation - it became an excuse.

He has to get over this shit. HE'S the chokepoint. The receivers aren't going to change - this is what we have. But HE'S the guy who's stopped throwing downfield despite his receivers actually having pretty average hands. He's the guy who's not throwing with anticipation.

Because when Mac Jones - who absolutely has worse weapons than Patrick Mahomes has - has a better ADOT than you by a full HALF YARD - fellas, that's on the passer. That's not on the targets.

The issue isn't drops, it's the lack of timely separation, outside of Watson.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Justin Watson would like a word.

Lost cause at this point.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Unless it's 3rd and 20 and Mahomes decides to single-handedly bring Miami back into the game...

would you give it a rest









even noah gray is getting downfield targets



if you're open, he slings it, period

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

The issue isn't drops, it's the lack of timely separation, outside of Watson.

Not really.

Y'all have found a couple little ambiguous charts that don't provide their methodology, meanwhile I'm AT the games and have seen time and time again that guys are getting open at their break and Mahomes simply isn't letting the ball go.

He's refusing to throw guys open.

Again, look at those charts and look at where many of those names are in relation to others. They're simply not good metrics.

If you see Justin Watson as some world beater because your chart tells you he is, that's a problem. That's silly. If you think Rice is mediocre (or worse) because the chart tells you he is, then you're not watching these games.

There have been guys to throw to. Guys in windows larger than throws Mahomes has made in his sleep for a half decade.

He's simply unwilling to attempt them at this point.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Opening game of the season Mahomes had an ADOT of 9.6.

Been about 7.1 since.

Game 1 went poorly, his receivers shit the bed in the 4th quarter, Mahomes has been unwilling to go downfield since.

And it's just unwarranted. Mahomes has gotten almost dead-ass average performance from his receivers. His drop rate is 6.1%. And if my memory serves, that's exactly where we realized that rate tends to end up on the season for the overwhelming majority of receivers.

Wilson's drop rate is 8.6% -- anyone weeping over his receivers? Stroud at 8.5, Goff at 7.8, Jackson at 6.2

But at some point "Mahomes doesn't trust his receivers" became more than a mere explanation - it became an excuse.

He has to get over this shit. HE'S the chokepoint. The receivers aren't going to change - this is what we have. But HE'S the guy who's stopped throwing downfield despite his receivers actually having pretty average hands. He's the guy who's not throwing with anticipation.

Because when Mac Jones - who absolutely has worse weapons than Patrick Mahomes has - has a better ADOT than you by a full HALF YARD - fellas, that's on the passer. That's not on the targets.

That lines up with the Top 5 players regards to catches on this team. They average 7.32 yds/catch.

In order:

Kelce
Rice
Pacheco
Toney
Gray

We only have 2 WR's that average over 10 yds per play and that is MVS and Watson the rest are around 6-7, Rice actually is doing good at 9.2. Toney is at 4.5

[staylor26]

How much separation did Rice have on that great catch Sunday?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

would you give it a rest

Stop working backwards from a preconceived narrative and I'll consider it.

I'm providing some actual spadework for my conclusions here. Hell, I've used YOUR chosen metrics to address some of this stuff.

You're posting graphics you've not even bothered to look into the methodology on (and admittedly don't care anyway) and cherry picking gifs.

I'm not convinced.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Stop working backwards from a preconceived narrative and I'll consider it.

I'm providing some actual spadework for my conclusions here. Hell, I've used YOUR chosen metrics to address some of this stuff.

You're posting graphics you've not even bothered to look into the methodology on (and admittedly don't care anyway) and cherry picking gifs.

I'm not convinced.

The gifs are showing the things we're asking him to do, so yeah, he should definitely do that more often.

1 of those show a guy "open".

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

Lost cause at this point.

Yeah, you're just covering yourself in glory.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Stop working backwards from a preconceived narrative and I'll consider it.

I mean, that's you. You were wrong. Own it.

Mahomes has been unwilling to go downfield since.

This is a false statement. I provided evidence. Didn't even include Kelce.

Mahomes throws it to the open guys. Period.

[Tribal Warfare]

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[BigRedChief]

Noah Grey wide open for a 50 yard TD. Mahomes looking that way. Stepped up in the pocket and just didn’t throw the ball.

The safety is failing his arms trying to get his teammates attention that they have someone wide open on that side of the field


https://substack.com/redirect/edda3c...XOx6FZOKRn76FQ

[stevegroganfan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Opening game of the season Mahomes had an ADOT of 9.6.

Been about 7.1 since.

Game 1 went poorly, his receivers shit the bed in the 4th quarter, Mahomes has been unwilling to go downfield since.

And it's just unwarranted. Mahomes has gotten almost dead-ass average performance from his receivers. His drop rate is 6.1%. And if my memory serves, that's exactly where we realized that rate tends to end up on the season for the overwhelming majority of receivers.

Wilson's drop rate is 8.6% -- anyone weeping over his receivers? Stroud at 8.5, Goff at 7.8, Jackson at 6.2

But at some point "Mahomes doesn't trust his receivers" became more than a mere explanation - it became an excuse.

He has to get over this shit. HE'S the chokepoint. The receivers aren't going to change - this is what we have. But HE'S the guy who's stopped throwing downfield despite his receivers actually having pretty average hands. He's the guy who's not throwing with anticipation.

Because when Mac Jones - who absolutely has worse weapons than Patrick Mahomes has - has a better ADOT than you by a full HALF YARD - fellas, that's on the passer. That's not on the targets.

Is your goal to have Patrick Mahomes throw for over 5000 yards or for the Chiefs to win as many regular season games as possible? More yards doesn't always equal more wins since if it did, Mahomes would have done better won loss record wise in college. Chiefs would probably be 8-1 if Kelce played that first week.

I'm not convinced ADOT is that meaningful and I will explain with your Mac Jones comparison. Patrick Mahomes job after all is to do whatever possible to maximize the Chiefs chancres of winning Super Bowls. And how Patrick Mahomes plays QB in a given game/season should be partially dependent upon the strength of the Chiefs defense.

With a stonger defense, there is less of a need to throw up 50/50 balls to average receivers.

Winning regular season games helps a team increase their SB odds if players don't get hurt but increasing ADOT may not necessarily help Chiefs win another SB.

QBR isn't the end all stat for judging passers since a QB can theoretically have a worse year passing and his QBR goes up 10-15 points. Dramatically better receivers/better offensive line etc.

But QBR is worth looking at for the effectiveness of a passing game.

Mac Jones 40.
Patrick Mahomes this year. 73. (1 game without Kelce hurts the numbers)

My best guess given the Patriots offensive line woes the first 2-3 weeks and injuries at wide receiver throughout the season, Mahomes is New England this year would have a QBR in the low to mid 60's. The media would be saying "what is wrong" with Mahomes if he didn't already have 2 Super Bowl rings but he would still be doing excellent overall.

And one way he would achieve that is probably throwing the ball less to Davante Parker since Parker is very bad at getting separation. He doesn't get much at all and relies upon winning 50/50 balls.

Mac Jones ADOT is probably higher since he has thrown too many 50/50 balls
to Davante Parker even when the two are not on the same page. And the Patriots have another receiver who isn't good at short routes.

Mahomes is too smart and too good to take too many relatively low percentage chances when he doesn't have to.

Mac Jones on average does have markedly worse weapons and on average a worse offensive line than Mahomes right now but ADOT may also be misleading since Chiefs tend to do a better job spreading the field. Mahomes can throw across his body/across the field and has the arm strength to make the throw, Mac Jones doesn't.

[JohnnyHammersticks]

JuJu can't even get playing time for a team that gave him a ridiculous contract and that has one of the worst WR groups in the NFL. He's bone on bone in his bad knee. That doesn't get better, it just keeps getting worse.

The JuJu of this season can't do what the JuJu of last season could do, hell he was already breaking down at the end of last season. 2023 JuJu << than 2022 JuJu, and 2024 JuJu will be even worse than 2023 JuJu. That's how chronic knee issues work. He's shot. Done. Toast. Bringing him back would solve absolutely nothing.

[Hammock Parties]

worried about his liver