Call Your Shot: Who will be the Chiefs first pick in the 2025 NFL draft?

[staylor26]

I'm going with Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio St.

I think the Chiefs would prefer a guy like Walter Nolen or Derrick Harmon falls into their lap, but I don't think that happens next Thursday night, or at least I'm not going to get me hopes up.

A lot of people will not like this pick, due to the injury risk, but the Chiefs take a swing at a T that otherwise would never be in that late 1st round range.

Side note: I could also see Josh Conerly being the pick and could've just as easily chose him. Upside isn't as high, but he's probably safer given his health.

[OnTheWarpath15]

I don't care what his medicals say, unless he can prove without a shadow of a doubt that the strength/agility/burst is still there in that knee, (he can't) I'm not touching him.

Let the Chargers or some other team take that risk. The next guy that comes back from a patella rupture and is the same guy as before will be the first.

[O.city]

"RB on a stacked national championship team, can do everything, take him in the late first"



I feel like I've read this book before....

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by O.city

"RB on a stacked national championship team, can do everything, take him in the late first"



I feel like I've read this book before....

So don’t take an Edge then because of FAU?

Can’t take a DT, remember that Ryan Sims pick?

Silly logic…

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by O.city

"RB on a stacked national championship team, can do everything, take him in the late first"



I feel like I've read this book before....

Yea because Henderson = CEH

Lazy as ****.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Jerm

So don’t take an Edge then because of FAU?

Can’t take a DT, remember that Ryan Sims pick?

Silly logic…

Don't take a RB in the first because....it's a RB.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Yea because Henderson = CEH

Lazy as ****.

The situation is pretty similar, gotta admit. Kinda funny.

[Jerm]

Originally Posted by O.city

Don't take a RB in the first because....it's a RB.

Yeah who wouldn’t want Gibbs or Bijan or Saquon…you’re right…

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Jerm

Yeah who wouldn’t want Gibbs or Bijan or Saquon…you’re right…

Yeah you could never get guys like that in free agency or whatnot

[RunKC]

Clyde was a ****ing slow midget who ran a 4.57 and couldn’t pass block to save his life.

Comparing that to Henderson is legitimately insane. That’s like comparing a Percheron to a Donkey.

And at 31 we get a RB for 5 years at about $13.5 million total. But hey let’s take a project like Felix again if we get stuck like last time.

[O.city]

Elite RB's seem to go pretty high in the draft these days, yet this one is gonna go at the end of the first and I'm to believe I couldn't get a similar prospect at the end of the 2nd?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I agree with you. I watched the RGR youtube of their mock draft. They basically said the same thing.

Almost everyone has us taking Simmons, Maybe its all a big group think instead of their own thoughts.

Are you new to draft season? Of COURSE it's all a big group think.

That's why we have people saying that Josh Simmons was a blue-chip prospect, likely OT1 and a potential top 5 pick had he not gotten hurt.

That's just not there. I wanted to talk myself into the idea a couple months ago and started looing at it -- you just cannot reach that conclusion. But draft thy name is Groupthink and once it started to get momentum from someone (who we now KNOW do favors for agents to get information) it bounced around the echo chamber enough to become fact.

This feels so much like the Jeremiah Johnson draft when that guy went from a late 1st round prospect in March to a top THREE possibility in April. Based on NOTHING. It was just draftheads talking themselves into him.

I truly believe that's what we're seeing here with Simmons.

I won't love the idea of taking him at 31, but I'd live with it. If we friggen trade UP to take that guy, In Veach We Trust my ass. His 1st round draft record is....fine. It's about what one would expect. McDuffie, Karlaftis and Worthy look like hits. FAU and MEH are likely misses. And when it comes to 'first selections' made in the 2nd round, you put Hardman and Speaks on there with Bolton. Again - pretty ordinary. Some good, some bad, some meh.

I will absolutely HOPE he works out. I'm most assuredly not going to just assume it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Jerm

So don’t take an Edge then because of FAU?

Can’t take a DT, remember that Ryan Sims pick?

Silly logic…

Remember though - the run game, more than even the passing game, is a whole squad game.

A successful run requires more things to go right than a successful pass. A powerhouse team can do more to make a RB look amazing than any other position on the field.

That said, I worry more about that with Judkins than I do Henderson. I love Henderson's traits. Love his explosion, vision and balance. That's a little different than Judkins that I see as taking advantage of a powerful OL.

But....I can't see him being my favorite option on the board at 31.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by O.city

The situation is pretty similar, gotta admit. Kinda funny.

Ohio St. is nowhere near as stacked as LSU was. LSU is one of the GOAT teams. Ohio St. only won a NC because of the playoff changes.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Semichief

Could be the opposite. The reason they can take a swing on Simmons and not rush him back is because they have a starting LT already. We could redshirt him this year to allow his knee to fully heal. It would be a dream come true to have a bookend LT ready to go on a rookie contract in 2026.

I won’t say I’m torn on Simmons - I actively don’t want him because the injury history on players with patella tears shows that basically 1 in 5 players makes it back to something similar to what they were before. Has the surgery improved in some way? Was his tear partial? Do the Chiefs feel good about their evals? If the answer to all of them is yes, Simmons is a steal at 31. We often talk about elite tackle prospects not being available where we pick. It’s possible that he be the first of his caliber to show up there. Last year, we’d have tacked the 6th or 7th OT but they were all gone even after trading up.

Let's be really generous here. I'll borrow your math and then goose it a bit.

As a rule, 1st round picks become starters about 1/2 the time. Let's go ahead and kick that up a bit for the sake of argument to 2/3 and give it 66%.

Now let's take your 1/5 get back to form and goose THAT to 1/4. Shit, let's make it 1/3 to make it sporting.

In that event, the combined probability of Simmons A) being a genuine starting caliber player prior to injury and B) getting BACK to that level is going to be about 22%.

So you have a 1 in 5 chance at that point even when pushing the sliders in Simmons favor. You know what that is? A 4th rounder -- maybe.

I mean there's no way to rationally look at this that makes sense. I mean even if you get stupid with the math and say "Okay, a healthy Simmons had a 75% chance of being a starting caliber LT and Patella injuries have about a 50% return rate" that's going to give you about a 37% shot at the guy being a starter. It's a blatant falsehood and it's STILL about the kind of success rate you'd expect from a mid to late 2nd.

I just do not like Simmons as a first rounder even a little bit. It ignores....everything.

Hope ain't a plan, fellas.

And Hope is all that people are doing when it comes to Josh Simmons.

[O.city]

They've gotta get a good player at 31, so if Henderson is that, whatever.

They can't have another shitbird first rounder though.