Let’s talk about the Chargers

[RunKC]

Quick turnaround. Amazon’s new platformed TNF

First thought: love the offense now. Worries about injuries and OT’s. Mack and Bosa had a combined 4.5 sacks today. But they played the Raiders OL.

They won but nearly lost to a bad team. Very beatable IMO

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Just because he lost and it didnt work doesn't make it the wrong decision. The Chargers were actually very successful on 4th down last year.

Lol, no.

See, metrics work if you have enough opportunities.

Take baseball. you have 162 games. So metrics works out many times because you have literally hundreds of chances.

In the NFL you get 17 chances, that's it. That's what bit LAC in the end. They played as if they had hundreds of chances when they really had one. Metrics works well when you have hundreds of chances to get a desired outcome. not so mich when you have just a few.

Example: if I flip a coin 10,000 times the likelihood of coming out 50/50 is rather high. But if I only flip it 10 times, the odds of getting to 50/50 is actually pretty low. It's possible, but it's also pretty likely that I get 1 head and 9 tails. And everything in between.

it's also situational. Sure, Staley got away with it several times last season. Mostly against shit-ass teams. And failed miserably against better teams on several occasions.

Staley was a fool to let some metric geek cajole him into going for it on 4th and long deep in his own side of the field vs. KC. Against a very good offensive team that scores 90% of the time with a short field. And with a top 15 defense. he was an idiot.

And anyone with eyes could've told him that. But he decided to go with the 'new math.' And cost his team a chance at the postseason.

[mr. tegu]

We better treat any series from outside the 20 as four down territory.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Lol, no.

See, metrics work if you have enough opportunities.

Take baseball. you have 162 games. So metrics works out many times because you have literally hundreds of chances.

In the NFL you get 17 chances, that's it. That's what bit LAC in the end. They played as if they had hundreds of chances when they really had one. Metrics works well when you have hundreds of chances to get a desired outcome. not so mich when you have just a few.

Example: if I flip a coin 10,000 times the likelihood of coming out 50/50 is rather high. But if I only flip it 10 times, the odds of getting to 50/50 is actually pretty low. It's possible, but it's also pretty likely that I get 1 head and 9 tails. And everything in between.

it's also situational. Sure, Staley got away with it several times last season. Mostly against shit-ass teams. And failed miserably against better teams on several occasions.

Staley was a fool to let some metric geek cajole him into going for it on 4th and long deep in his own side of the field vs. KC. Against a very good offensive team that scores 90% of the time with a short field. And with a top 15 defense. he was an idiot.

And anyone with eyes could've told him that. But he decided to go with the 'new math.' And cost his team a chance at the postseason.

I cannot believe you fail to see the fault in this logic.

[Hark Clunt]

i like metrics a lot, but there's so much variance in the nfl that you can largely ignore them and probably be fine. also i think a coach has to consider the mental impact of constantly going for it on 4th down, hitting some terrible run of variance, then telling guys who mostly have very short career windows to "not be results oriented."

i'd love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation lmao.

[Simply Red]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Keep an eye on the money line...KC is only favored by 3 after the rockstar performance by Mahomes.

I would guess it's going to be heavily slanted towards the Chiefs...which in order for Vegas to recoup gives KC a 2 point window for victory or an out right loss.

Depends on the O/U line too...they might play the break even route on a national divisional game with two marquee players.

If the money comes in heavy on LA at +3.....Chiefs are free to score at will.

These lines will effect how the game is called...I'll chime in 10 minutes before kickoff with where the money is at.

Oh thank you BlackOp - we'll be on pins-n-needles.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Hark Clunt

i like metrics a lot, but there's so much variance in the nfl that you can largely ignore them and probably be fine. also i think a coach has to consider the mental impact of constantly going for it on 4th down, hitting some terrible run of variance, then telling guys who mostly have very short career windows to "not be results oriented."

i'd love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation lmao.

Reasonable rebuttal. As we progress to more logical play calling its also likely each generation of players will accept the new game theory. Similarly players in the 60s and 70s were routinely fine with punting at the 40 to pin the offense and let their defense go to work while kids and young men today would be offended by such a decision

[B_Ambuehl]

The Chargers won at least 3 games last year they would have otherwise lost without Staley repetitively going for it on 4th down. Week 2 at arrowhead vs the Chiefs, a few weeks later vs the Browns, and Cincinnati. You can say Staley pissed away the 2nd game vs the Chiefs & the last game vs the Raiders by gambling on 4th down but they still picked up an extra win on the season, and that's what the analytics are about. One of the biggest benefit for Chiefs opponents is Andy Reids propensity to punt on 4th & 1 around midfield despite having a top offense.

[richpjr]

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

The Chargers won at least 3 games last year they would have otherwise lost without Staley repetitively going for it on 4th down. Week 2 at arrowhead vs the Chiefs, a few weeks later vs the Browns, and Cincinnati. You can say Staley pissed away the 2nd game vs the Chiefs & the last game vs the Raiders by gambling on 4th down but they still picked up an extra win on the season, and that's what the analytics are about. One of the biggest benefit for Chiefs opponents is Andy Reids propensity to punt on 4th & 1 around midfield despite having a top offense.

It wasn't black and white even in the Raider game. The Chargers went for it 5 times on 4th down and converted 2 of the attempts. They scored TDs on those 2 drives for 14 points. If they would have attempted fgs every time and if they would have made all of them, they would have scored 15 points. Sure the game would have played out differently but it was nearly a wash.

[smithandrew051]

GDT?????

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

GDT?????

Go ahead and start it.


I'd start it but I'm going miss it. Probably first game I miss in a decade. Maybe 2nd?

**** I hate missing a game.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

Go ahead and start it.


I'd start it but I'm going miss it. Probably first game I miss in a decade. Maybe 2nd?

**** I hate missing a game.

That’s too much pressure for me. I’d collapse under the weight of it.

[ThyKingdomCome15]

The Chargers are better than the Cardinals. That's all I got.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

The Chargers won at least 3 games last year they would have otherwise lost without Staley repetitively going for it on 4th down. Week 2 at arrowhead vs the Chiefs, a few weeks later vs the Browns, and Cincinnati. You can say Staley pissed away the 2nd game vs the Chiefs & the last game vs the Raiders by gambling on 4th down but they still picked up an extra win on the season, and that's what the analytics are about. One of the biggest benefit for Chiefs opponents is Andy Reids propensity to punt on 4th & 1 around midfield despite having a top offense.

This. Everyone instantly forgets when it works but still bitch about the times it fails years later.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

The Chargers won at least 3 games last year they would have otherwise lost without Staley repetitively going for it on 4th down. Week 2 at arrowhead vs the Chiefs, a few weeks later vs the Browns, and Cincinnati. You can say Staley pissed away the 2nd game vs the Chiefs & the last game vs the Raiders by gambling on 4th down but they still picked up an extra win on the season, and that's what the analytics are about. One of the biggest benefit for Chiefs opponents is Andy Reids propensity to punt on 4th & 1 around midfield despite having a top offense.

You call that a benefit? I'll take Andy Reid record as a HC and most wins last 5 years in the NFL so although you make a good point Andy Reid record speaks for itself. I mean he has like thev5th most wins of over 300 HC that have coached the NFL so that's saying something and he doesn't have to cheat like Bill Bilichic. I see what you are saying but disagree it's a benefit. Now how is it going be a benefit when our defense becomes top 10 in the league?

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl

One of the biggest benefit for Chiefs opponents is Andy Reids propensity to punt on 4th & 1 around midfield despite having a top offense.

Please produce documented evidence on the amount of games the Reid/Mahomes Chiefs have lost due to this reason.