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Old 01-24-2023, 08:39 AM  
NIUhuskies NIUhuskies is offline
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:39 PM   #3526
rfaulk34 rfaulk34 is offline
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I’m glad to see it! Patrick did not get this type of help in earlier seasons.

That said, Mahomes this year had a very strong 87/100 Playoff QBR grade. The MVP Lamar Jackson had a regular season 65/100 QBR. Last year Mahomes won MVP with a 79/100 QBR and followed it up with 84/100 QBR in the Playoffs.

Joe Burrow’s QBR was graded 51/100 and 54/100 for Cincy’s playoff runs following the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Lahmurrr is Most Valuable Poseur. Burrow's tQBR is lower because he takes more sacks. More sacks = less opportunity to make plays outside the pocket or run for + yards. He's also willing to take more sacks on 3rd down which is a big hit to tQBR.

Since no one else seems to notice this, or realize this is part of the issue, Mahomes takes a predominantly 5 step (sometimes even 7 or 9) drop out of the shotgun. Burrow takes a 3 step drop, with very few (mostly go routes down the sideline) 5 step drops from the shotgun and he's mostly static there, while Mahomes also drifts on his drops from time to time. A 3 step drop keeps Burrow closer to the line, making it harder to escape pressure (obviously) and his line has been average at best on a good day. That's just the design of each offense and it's why i don't bother with tQBR with Burrow.
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:41 PM   #3527
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:49 PM   #3528
rfaulk34 rfaulk34 is offline
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How about rushing plays? Mahomes has done some pretty critical stuff with his legs on 3rd and 4th down in the Playoffs this season.
Ahhhh. The ole Lamar argument...


Kidding. Mahomes is clearly better than Burrow at that and does it a lot more.
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:49 PM   #3529
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Originally Posted by rfaulk34 View Post
Lahmurrr is Most Valuable Poseur. Burrow's tQBR is lower because he takes more sacks. More sacks = less opportunity to make plays outside the pocket or run for + yards. He's also willing to take more sacks on 3rd down which is a big hit to tQBR.

Since no one else seems to notice this, or realize this is part of the issue, Mahomes takes a predominantly 5 step (sometimes even 7 or 9) drop out of the shotgun. Burrow takes a 3 step drop, with very few (mostly go routes down the sideline) 5 step drops from the shotgun and he's mostly static there, while Mahomes also drifts on his drops from time to time. A 3 step drop keeps Burrow closer to the line, making it harder to escape pressure (obviously) and his line has been average at best on a good day. That's just the design of each offense and it's why i don't bother with tQBR with Burrow.
It’s not just sacks. It’s also rushing plays that factor into QBR. That’s why Lamar had a 83/100 QBR in 2019 regular season. Lamar’s rushing in that 2019 season was incredible.

Mahomes is sneaky good as a runner. It seems like when he takes off, it’s almost always a first down conversion and usually in a big moment on 3rd or 4th down. He had two big time runs on 3rd and 4th down in the Miami playoff game. Two big time runs on 3rd and 4th down in Overtime of the Super Bowl against the Niners. In the 2023 regular season, they graded Mahomes ahead of Lamar & Justin Fields in the rushing portion of the QBR metric.
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:52 PM   #3530
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It’s not just sacks. It’s also rushing plays that factor into QBR. That’s why Lamar had a 83/100 QBR in 2019 regular season. Lamar’s rushing in that 2019 season was incredible.

Mahomes is sneaky good as a runner. It seems like when he takes off, it’s almost always a first down conversion and usually in a big moment on 3rd or 4th down. He had two big time runs on 3rd and 4th down in the Miami playoff game. Two big time runs on 3rd and 4th down in Overtime of the Super Bowl against the Niners. In the 2023 regular season, they graded Mahomes ahead of Lamar & Justin Fields in the rushing portion of the QBR metric.
That's what i was saying earlier. He'll sit in the pocket longer, looking for a play down field and end up getting sacked rather than taking off like Lamar and Mahomes do. The sacks end up taking running out of the equation, hurting his overall QBR.
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:53 PM   #3531
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Ahhhh. The ole Lamar argument...


Kidding. Mahomes is clearly better than Burrow at that and does it a lot more.
At that? He's better than Glass Joe at everything. 3 rings to zero. 2 League MVPs to zero. 3 SB MVP's to zero. Less talent and wins more.
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Old 02-21-2024, 04:00 PM   #3532
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At that? He's better than Glass Joe at everything. 3 rings to zero. 2 League MVPs to zero. 3 SB MVP's to zero. Less talent and wins more.
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Old 02-21-2024, 04:00 PM   #3533
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I get why Bengals fans want to try propping up Burrow. After all they are stuck with their own version of playoffs Alex Smith. But they might have better luck arguing with Bills or Ravens fans about things he does better if they actually want any chance of being right.
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Old 02-21-2024, 04:07 PM   #3534
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I get why Bengals fans want to try propping up Burrow. After all they are stuck with their own version of playoffs Alex Smith. But they might have better luck arguing with Bills or Ravens fans about things he does better if they actually want any chance of being right.
In his 2 full seasons healthy, Burrow has beaten Mahomes in Arrowhead in one AFCCG and went to the wire in the other, with a lesser organization across the board. He's widely regarded as the 2nd best QB in the league and the only guy that doesn't get the yips when he's staring the Chiefs in the face. You don't want to see Burrow healthy in the playoffs and you know it because he's coming to your gun fight with a knife and he doesn't give a shit.

Wait...too soon?
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Old 02-21-2024, 04:10 PM   #3535
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Arguable. Mahomes had less yards, less ypa, 1% better on comp% and 1 more td pass on 7 more attempts. He was also sacked 5 times to Burrow's 19. And all that was with 1 more quarter of play for Mahomes.
Mahomes -2023 (4 games)- 104/149 69.8% 1,051 yards 7.1 ypa 6 TD's 1 INT QB Rating 100.3 23 runs 141 yards 9 1st downs.

Burrow - 2021 (4 games)- 97/142 68.3% 1,105 yards 7.8 ypa 5 TD's 2 INT's QB Rating 97.3 15 runs 70 yards 6 1st downs.

Look pretty similar overall, except Pat's legs were a bit more valuable to his team. And he ended his season with a Super Bowl win directing a GWD in OT to win it, while Joe came up short on his GWD attempt. So . . . . . . .

And this was the year Pat was 'carried by his defense'.
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Old 02-21-2024, 04:13 PM   #3536
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That's what i was saying earlier. He'll sit in the pocket longer, looking for a play down field and end up getting sacked rather than taking off like Lamar and Mahomes do. The sacks end up taking running out of the equation, hurting his overall QBR.
Burrow is no slouch running the ball. Sneaky good, kind of similar to Mahomes in that regard. Both of them are way better at it than people realize. I personally consider Mahomes the best scrambling QB ever because of the critical moments in the Playoffs where his legs have directly helped his team win 15 Playoff games the last 6 years. Can't really say that for Lamar, Michael Vick, and a million other very talented rushing QB's who simply did not have the Playoff stage as often as Patrick.

I don't know what the numbers mean in the rushing portion of QBR metric, but clearly anyone above 10 points in this rushing metric seems to be a pretty good running QB. Anyone who is close to 0 points or even negative points (Jimmy G, Jared Goff, Tom Brady) is a statue in the pocket.

2022 QBR rushing metric:

1. Justin Fields 46.5
2. Josh Allen 43.9
3. Jalen Hurts 38.7
4. Daniel Jones 26.8
5. Patrick Mahomes 24.9
6. Lamar Jackson 22.2
7. Kyler Murray 19.2
8. Joe Burrow 13.3
29. Jimmy G -2.0
30. Tom Brady -3.4
31. Jared Goff -3.9


Your boy Joe looks pretty damn good in this 2022 list. He looked pretty good in the 2021 list as well at 8th in rushing efficiency. So he's #8 in both years, despite people not thinking of him as a runner. Pretty damn good!

Now in 2023 it looks like the defenses clamped down on rushing QB's to an extent. Mahomes was pretty similar in both years above 20 points, but the guys at the top end dropped off a lot from 2022. Last year we had 3 guys above 38 points in this metric, whereas in 2023 only one guy was even above 25 points.

2023 QBR rushing metric:

1. Josh Allen 31.2
2. Josh Dobbs 22.0
3. Patrick Mahomes 21.6
4. Lamar Jackson 19.8
5. Justin Fields 19.6
6. Bryce Young 18.3
7. Jalen Hurts 16.4
8. Sam Howell 14.6
28. Jared Goff -2.0
29. Derek Carr -5.1
30. Tua Tago -7.0

Jalen Hurts dropped from 38.7 to 16.4. That's something to watch moving forward with him and the Philly offense. Tua is dead last with a -7.0 grade as a runner. Kind of shocking, lol
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Old 02-21-2024, 04:16 PM   #3537
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Mahomes -2023 (4 games)- 104/149 69.8% 1,051 yards 7.1 ypa 6 TD's 1 INT QB Rating 100.3 23 runs 141 yards 9 1st downs.

Burrow - 2021 (4 games)- 97/142 68.3% 1,105 yards 7.8 ypa 5 TD's 2 INT's QB Rating 97.3 15 runs 70 yards 6 1st downs.

Look pretty similar overall, except Pat's legs were a bit more valuable to his team. And he ended his season with a Super Bowl win directing a GWD in OT to win it, while Joe came up short on his GWD attempt. So . . . . . . .

And this was the year Pat was 'carried by his defense'.
Only a dumbass would argue with this post.




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Old 02-21-2024, 04:43 PM   #3538
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In his 2 full seasons healthy, Burrow has beaten Mahomes in Arrowhead in one AFCCG and went to the wire in the other, with a lesser organization across the board. He's widely regarded as the 2nd best QB in the league and the only guy that doesn't get the yips when he's staring the Chiefs in the face. You don't want to see Burrow healthy in the playoffs and you know it because he's coming to your gun fight with a knife and he doesn't give a shit.

Wait...too soon?
Josh Allen has done a pretty dang good job against the Chiefs in Playoff games. I think a key difference is that Lou Anarumo is a much better DC than Sean McDermott & Leslie Frazier. Buffalo cannot seem to figure out a way to slow down Mahomes in the Playoffs, whereas Cincy's defense has done a very good job of it. So we end up with high scoring shootout games between KC & Buffalo, compared to very close lower scoring games with KC & Cincy. Either way it's a pretty good battle between the Chiefs and these other 2 teams every year.

Now I'm curious to see what happens with some of the other AFC teams. CJ Stroud is only 22 years old and has shown big time potential. Houston will load that roster around him as much as possible while he's still on the cheap rookie contract for at least the next 4 years. Jim Harbaugh is bound to make the Chargers a better team than they were with Brandon Staley. Steelers & Browns are dangerous if they can figure out the QB position. Obviously the Ravens have a good coach, very good QB, and very good roster in general. I'm not sure if Miami can ever do anything in the Playoffs unless they have the #1 seed to guarantee warm weather games.
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Old 02-21-2024, 06:18 PM   #3539
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Old 02-21-2024, 06:27 PM   #3540
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A lot of smack talk for a team that was last place in their division with Burrow. They won’t be winning their division next year, and will ultimately fail like every team in the shit sucking state of ohio always does.
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