*****The Patrick Mahomes Thread*****

[Dante84]

IT ****ING HAPPENED



OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

[KChiefs1]

Seth Keysor: Patrick Mahomes film review; Methodology for QB play and the fire-breathing dragon

A primer on how we'll examine Mahomes' snaps this year and looking at his absurdly high level of play Saturday.

Spoiler!

The 2022 regular season is almost upon us, which means that we get to watch Patrick Mahomes play football once again. And that, for lack of a better term, rules. And I get to call it “work.”

One of my favorite things to do in this job is to try and contextualize/evaluate quarterback play in a way that goes beyond the box score. To that end, I’ve charted pretty much every snap by a Chiefs quarterback since the 2013 season began. That job (with all due respect to Alex Smith) became a great deal more fun in 2017, when the Chiefs drafted Mahomes and everything changed for the franchise.

Since it’s preseason, it seems like a fitting time to walk through what we’ll be doing all year to evaluate Mahomes’ play, utilizing his drives against Washington as our example. Also, it gives me an excuse to write about stuff like this.

As much fun as evaluating plays like that is (and it’s the funnest), what I really enjoy when writing about quarterback play is going beyond the box score to examine how the QB played independent of other factors. Let’s talk about why I do that, how I do that, and then look at Mahomes’ absurdly high level of play against Washington.

Because this covers something we’ll be doing all year here (hopefully after every week, though I occasionally miss a week when business takes over), this article is unlocked for everyone. Let’s talk methodology, then talk some examples, then talk Mahomes vs Washington, where he was the football equivalent of a fire-breathing dragon.

QB Charting Methodology

Quarterback play is very, very difficult to accurately quantify. Even the best statistical tools we have (such as expected points added, completion percentage over expected, QBR, etc.) are all trapped by the same flaws that they measure the result rather than what the quarterback specifically did on a given play. You know the drill… a 2-yard screen pass can result in 75 yards and a touchdown while a gorgeous 15-yard out from the opposite hash can result in an incomplete pass if the receiver doesn’t do his job. In short, the statistics, even the best ones, tell us the “what,” not the “how.” And the “how,” as well as eliminating other factors involved in the play, is necessary to evaluate the quarterback.

So for those who haven’t been reading here or at The Athletic (or SB Nation before that), I set out years ago to try and find a way to quantify what really matters from a quarterback’s play: Accuracy, pocket presence, vision/awareness, playmaking, and ball protection. If a quarterback does these things well, he’ll consistently play well.

With that in mind, when I watch all-22 film I review each snap and chart the following:

Plays/yards created- This is a way to quantify how often the QB is making things happen when things break down on offense due to pressure, no one getting open, etc. It’s a way to really see how often a QB is “carrying” the offense. It’s rarer than people realize, and Mahomes is (unsurprisingly) basically in a class by himself.

Franchise QB throws- you know them when you see them. How often is the QB making those 15-yard outs to the opposite hash, or driving the ball into a tight spot, etc? Much like plays/yards created, it demonstrates how often a QB is making tough plays vs taking advantage of others making plays.

Multiple-read plays- How often is the quarterback scanning the field? This becomes a bit more relevant this year given the (very weird) idea that Mahomes is a one-read quarterback that was floated by one defensive coordinator.

Accurate/inaccurate throws from both in and out of the pocket- Completion percentage doesn’t tell us whether the throw was good, because the receiver could well have bailed out the QB on a bad throw. Hence, accuracy charting.

Flushes (plays the quarterback is forced to bail out due to pressure before anyone is open)- Is the OL keeping the QB clean constantly, or is he running for his life? Knowing that helps unlock what the QB is doing on his own.

Drops by receivers and yards cost- Something stats miss.

Potential interceptions- Because a bad throw is still a bad throw if the defender drops it. These are reserved for plays a defender should have picked it off. This also helps us weed out interceptions that aren’t on the QB, like a dropped pass that tips into the air.

Missed shots- A receiver who was open and should have likely been seen, but wasn’t. It’s crucial to try and view this within the framework of the reads as best as we can tell, and it’s another thing stats miss in terms of opportunity cost.

Happy feet- When a quarterback bails on clean pocket or creates pressure with his movement. This helps us separate OL issues from QB issues

Utilizing this method has allowed me to do the best job I can in determining how well a quarterback played in a given game in a way that is much more accurate than statistical analysis. An example of this from last year is when the Chiefs played the Packers last season and errors elsewhere torpedoed the offense while Mahomes himself played quite well. However, it also can tell us if things are the other way around and a good offense is covering a QB’s lack of ability. It can also help us zero in on blame if a QB just played poorly, such as Mahomes against the Titans last season (the worst full game he’s ever played).

I’ve utilized this method to contextualize Mahomes by looking at Josh Allen’s divisional round performance, as well as multiple games from other elite quarterbacks. Here are Mahomes’ averaged numbers from last season (talked about at length here) and from 2018 (a year I reference since it was his most statistically dominant by counting stats).

(NOTE- I stopped charting depth of target last year, now that Next Gen Stats makes that information publicly available. It’s a marvelous tool!)

To sum up, the goal here is to answer the question of “how did the quarterback play” over the course of a single game, multiple games, or an entire season, and to do it in a way that separates his play as much as possible from play design and his surrounding talent. It’s also an effort to quantify what we’re looking at on film in a way that allows us to compare one performance to another. Is it perfect? No. But it is, in my opinion, the most in-depth way I can do this job. And it allows us to answer with much more certainty what is (and isn’t) happening on the field.

With that in mind, let’s talk Mahomes vs Washington and the carnage that he brought.

Patrick Mahomes vs Washington

Let’s look at the numbers, then talk some film.

(NOTE: Not all throws can be charted for accuracy, so numbers are occasionally odd)

The first thing I noted when charting this game was how well Mahomes and his receivers were operating within the framework of the offense, which is reflected in how many throws from the pocket there were (and accurately), along with multiple read plays where he just found what was needed. Mahomes looked very comfortable and was throwing with as much anticipation as I’ve ever seen from him.

This is a good example of how anticipatory Mahomes was on the day. Look at Kelce’s positioning as Mahomes starts his throw.

Mahomes made multiple throws like this in a short amount of time against Washington, putting the ball in spots and anticipating where the receivers would be. These timing routes are almost impossible to effectively defend when the QB and the receivers are on the same page, and he did it effectively to multiple players (not just Kelce, with whom he has some sort of mind meld).

Mahomes was also wildly effective against the blitz Saturday, which is hardly a surprise considering his success against it over the last several years. Washington was able to help demonstrate why blitzing Mahomes is such a foolish strategy, as he nearly always recognizes the vacated area of the field (or an advantageous matchup) and exploits it too quickly for the blitz to get home.

This checkdown to Isiah Pacheco looks too easy, and for Mahomes it really is. He’s become so exceptional at seeing the pressure pre-snap and then confirming post-snap that it looks like it’s playing out in slow motion for him. His post-snap processing speed is such that it’s easy for him to check the coverage and confirm that the place he ID’d pre-snap will be available. The first down is practically predestined from the moment the ball is snapped.

Mahomes made Washington pay for blitzing on another snap, this one involving a slightly different process on a deep ball to Watson. Mahomes saw that there was a corner blitz coming from his right, which he correctly understood to mean that the safety would have to come up and play coverage on Watson with no help over the top. What that means in practice is that if he gives it a moment and puts a good ball down the field, Watson should be able to haul it in.

A few seconds later, this process plays itself out.

Wylie actually does a nice job here understanding that he can’t block everyone and just slowing down the rush that’s closest to Mahomes. Between that and Mahomes’ willingness to hold onto the ball until the last moment (hanging tough in the pocket for routes to develop is an elite QB skill that doesn’t get talked about enough), Watson has time to at least gain a step despite the safety doing an admirable job keeping up against a speedy receiver.

Mahomes compensates for the safety being in position (but with his back turned) by putting a dart right over the defender’s shoulder. Watson, for his part, does a good job waiting with his hands until the ball is nearly there. A play that the defense should have won (blitz gets home, coverage is decent) loses because of what Mahomes does here.

It’s easy to just see the tremendous throw, but the anticipation of how the play will work out with the secondary blitz shouldn’t go underlooked. It’s so simple to limit our amazement as to what Mahomes does to the physical, but his ability to break down what defenses are throwing at him is just as important as his ability to run around and make plays.

An example of him combining the physical with the mental came on a play where he found Noah Gray deep.

Here, Mahomes is initially looking to hit Gray as his route comes across the middle of the field. However, the underneath linebacker is trying to bait that exact throw, getting ready to jump into the lane. Mahomes either pump fakes or starts the throw (it’s impossible to say) and holds off on it after seeing the LB try and steal a pick. Once the LB has shown himself, Mahomes pulls the ball down and buys himself an extra second in the pocket by hopping to his right (making the rusher commit that way) and then moving left.

While he does this, Gray starts to break deep in a way that surprises the defender (this is the “second play” stuff that we talk about). Mahomes needs to get the ball out immediately to take advantage of the defender’s surprise, but he’s still in the process of moving left. Because he’s Mahomes, though, he’s able to loft the ball over the defender with his feet not remotely set, and the ball gets there before any recovery can be made. His combination of mental (recognizing the LB jumping the route, manipulating the pass rush) with the physical (able to get the ball down the field despite throwing while barely on the ground) is just tough to fathom.

If you’ve read this far, you have to be someone who loves an in-depth perspective. Seriously, subscribe. We’ll be doing this every week for Mahomes, along with multiple other articles on other players and aspects of the Chiefs.

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So Mahomes was breaking the Commanders from a mental perspective, and then from a perspective that combined mental and physical. And then, the purely “are you kidding me” playmaker stuff was thrown in for good measure. Everyone was talking about the “bend the spoon” throw to Watson, but his second TD to Jody Fortson (FORTSZN!!!) was just as enraging for the defense.

This isn’t fair. The Commanders cover everyone well in a short field, there’s a little bit of rush from the interior, and Mahomes has to break the pocket with a defender in pursuit. None of it matters.

A final note on this play (and to start to wrap us up here, as we’ve gone WAY more in-depth on this game than I intended to) is that Mahomes did something here that he did multiple times against Washington; Put the ball up for his receiver to grab it. He gave Fortson a few chances at it, but he also did the same for Skyy Moore on a play that Moore drew a PI, as well as for MVS on a couple of different occasions. It’s not an area we’ve seen Mahomes be terribly aggressive over his career, and it’s worth wondering whether a receiver group with more size will result in more “go get it” throws from Mahomes, particularly in the red zone.

The only real negative from the game from Mahomes (his genuinely inaccurate throws were on a flush and a couple of deeper shots with miscommunications) was that he did bail out of a clean pocket, something that has at times cropped up as a bad habit of his. But overall, Mahomes was an exceptional blend of executing the offense and making plays when the game broke down. And when he’s playing at that level, the offense becomes virtually unstoppable.

Here’s hoping to many more games like this in 2022. We’ll be doing this for (hopefully) every one of them, and I hope you’re along for the ride looking at the “how” of a fire-breathing dragon. Does it get better than that?

https://mnchiefsfan.substack.com/p/p...ew-methodology


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wallymo]

Originally Posted by New World Order

It feels so great to know we're going to be in contention pretty much every year.

Wouldn't trade places with any other fanbase. We're going to be so spoiled after Mahomes' run is over

I'm 51 and waited my whole life for football Jesus. #blest

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

wylie looks better

Hand quickness from Wylie. Caught in a tough spot in clip 2; that's going to happen with Mahomes sometimes. pic.twitter.com/f794Amv5RZ

— Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_) August 23, 2022

Wylie looked exceptional on Saturday.

Not in a 'hey, this G is making it work okay at RT!" sort of way but rather in a "Damn, are we gonna be able afford this guy next season if he keeps playing like this?" sort of way.

He looked like a genuinely good RT against a DL that is no joke. Washington isn't a good team, but they have a hell of a talented defensive line and Wylie stood out in a big way against them.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Wylie looked exceptional on Saturday.

Not in a 'hey, this G is making it work okay at RT!" sort of way but rather in a "Damn, are we gonna be able afford this guy next season if he keeps playing like this?" sort of way.

He looked like a genuinely good RT against a DL that is no joke. Washington isn't a good team, but they have a hell of a talented defensive line and Wylie stood out in a big way against them.

O'City posted yesterday, I think in the Pacheco thread, that KC cant afford to keep running Wylie out there at RT and I was thinking WTF is he talking about.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Wylie looked exceptional on Saturday.

Not in a 'hey, this G is making it work okay at RT!" sort of way but rather in a "Damn, are we gonna be able afford this guy next season if he keeps playing like this?" sort of way.

He looked like a genuinely good RT against a DL that is no joke. Washington isn't a good team, but they have a hell of a talented defensive line and Wylie stood out in a big way against them.

Yeah I think Wylie and Watson might be some key guys to extend if they keep up their trajectory. Wylie just turned 28 a few days ago so he’s not exactly old by any means. Maybe a nice 3 year extension would be best if he’s worth it.

Give ‘Em a nice pay raise which would still be a steal.

[TLO]

I for one am glad for the lack of Jackson Mahomes posts in this thread. At least recently.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

O'City posted yesterday, I think in the Pacheco thread, that KC cant afford to keep running Wylie out there at RT and I was thinking WTF is he talking about.

He wasn't very good in Chicago in game 1. Limited action though.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by New World Order

It feels so great to know we're going to be in contention pretty much every year.

Wouldn't trade places with any other fanbase. We're going to be so spoiled after Mahomes' run is over

And just think, he has a boy bun in the oven.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

He wasn't very good in Chicago in game 1. Limited action though.

I think it was Eli that once said "My bad just can't be that bad...."

Ultimately that's the difference between solid players and roster fodder. Great players are just good all the time. Solid players are occasionally good, occasionally below average.

But even BAD NFL players are capable of occasionally being good. The issue is that when they aren't good, they're a disaster. Whereas when Wylie isn't good, he's just kinda meh.

Who's that guy the Cowboys signed from us a few years back? Former 1st rounder that Direkshun I believe had a hard-on for and we ended up trading like a 5th for him 2 years later. Cameron Erving, right? He's a perfect example.

Erving, when he was good, was just fine. But man, when he wasn't good, he was a damn turnstile out there. He couldn't lose gracefully. Wylie can. Wylie is occasionally good and when he isn't, he's still largely tolerable.

That's an adequate NFL player and if his good reps continue to outweight his 'meh' reps, that's an NFL starting caliber player.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

O'City posted yesterday, I think in the Pacheco thread, that KC cant afford to keep running Wylie out there at RT and I was thinking WTF is he talking about.

He just wants to trade draft picks for for an expensive veteran and simultaneously pump off a 7th round RB.

Pay him no nevermind.

[BigRedChief]

Pre-Season pass attempts….

Rogers, Wilson, Carr, Herbert, Allen and Dak = 3

Mahomes = 26

Reid does it differently

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think it was Eli that once said "My bad just can't be that bad...."

Ultimately that's the difference between solid players and roster fodder. Great players are just good all the time. Solid players are occasionally good, occasionally below average.

But even BAD NFL players are capable of occasionally being good. The issue is that when they aren't good, they're a disaster. Whereas when Wylie isn't good, he's just kinda meh.

Who's that guy the Cowboys signed from us a few years back? Former 1st rounder that Direkshun I believe had a hard-on for and we ended up trading like a 5th for him 2 years later. Cameron Erving, right? He's a perfect example.

Erving, when he was good, was just fine. But man, when he wasn't good, he was a damn turnstile out there. He couldn't lose gracefully. Wylie can. Wylie is occasionally good and when he isn't, he's still largely tolerable.

That's an adequate NFL player and if his good reps continue to outweight his 'meh' reps, that's an NFL starting caliber player.

Yeah, I think he's fine. I was wrong before, I'd still look at upgrades if one presented itself.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Pre-Season pass attempts….

Rogers, Wilson, Carr, Herbert, Allen and Dak = 3

Mahomes = 26

Reid does it differently

I think he threw like 16 passes against Washington. Reid was just letting it hang out there...

[smithandrew051]

QB for the KC Chiefs

[KC Hawks]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

QB for the KC Chiefs

That's true now that you mention it