Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by scho63

Citibank just raised Apples target to $300.

China and the EU are ****ed and we are in control. Just chill and watch China have to come to the table.

They just offered to remove tariffs on our pork and soy. They do have a shortage of both so it is not as big as some people say but they are feeling pain in their economy and we are rocking and rolling.

My anticipation is that China will wait Trump out. I don't know if they can do 2024, but I think there is a 0% probability they come to the table before November 2020.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by scho63

Citibank just raised Apples target to $300.

China and the EU are ****ed and we are in control. Just chill and watch China have to come to the table.

They just offered to remove tariffs on our pork and soy. They do have a shortage of both so it is not as big as some people say but they are feeling pain in their economy and we are rocking and rolling.

China owns the largest hog producer/packing company in the United states. They are the worlds largest consumer of pork. Wonder how that works? they put tariffs on a product they own because they still have to export from the US to China?? So yeah I'd remove the tariffs too.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

So some of you are cashing out for the big crash. What do you think the stock market is going to do once Trump is not to be impeached???

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[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Holy shit!!!! If this guy is legit he's just killing it. The way he's set up he could stop working and money would just keep on coming in.

[ghak99]

I'm trying to find a rather safe Trump reelection investment. Nothing looks knock it out of the park appealing.



The BYND noise had kind of gone silent, so I had to take a peek.

That pump and dump played out exactly like many said it would, it just went higher and took a little longer to play out than was expected. I'd say the vegetable heads that bought in late weep, but they probably see it as a donation to the greater good.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by ghak99

I'm trying to find a rather safe Trump reelection investment. Nothing looks knock it out of the park appealing.

Hmm, I tried thinking about it but I can't come up with anything at this point. It may depend on opponent and I haven't heard much policy wise from the Trump admin other than maybe tax cuts 2.0 for the middle class. Trump could be bad for healthcare but not nearly as bad as the Dem candidate but depends who. I'm not sure if he'll try to run on reforming healthcare or just ignore it due to the first time results.

If Warren were to get the nom, banks/financials would likely take a big hit. If you're looking for safety then that rules out banks but all of financials would take pain. Exchanges like ICE (NYSE,etc), NDAQ, CME or T Rowe Price or blackrock might be good bounce back targets. This might be fun to revisit later

[MahiMike]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

So some of you are cashing out for the big crash. What do you think the stock market is going to do once Trump is not to be impeached???

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You have 2 scenarios in the market. The perceived vs. the reality. These zero interest rates are gonna be death for the markets. Whoever is president when it finally crashes will be linked to the next depression.

[RunKC]

FDEEX target date fund-21.7% return YTD | 20.95% return counting expense ratio
S&P 500-27.75% return YTD
New Fidelity zero cost fund (FZROX)-27.68% return YTD

So glad I decided to dump the stupid managed fund from Fidelity and go with the zero cost total market account. It’s going to make a huge difference

[scho63]

I look at Ford stock as solely a dividend play at this point as the stock has done shit in a very long time.

The only thing that scares me is that they have a very high debt:equity ratio of like 435% and a P/E of 24x's.

Not sure how strong a cash position they are in to keep that dividend at these levels.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

In my current philosophy, I struggle with recommending stocks, because my system of picking is laughable. In terms of recommending, do I talk up stocks that have taken a beating and should turn around, or stocks that are making a run and may be running out of steam? I never know.

That said, here are a few that I like, in no particular order:

TTWO - You know them as the makers of Grand Theft Auto. They don't pay a dividend and I bought them before my dividend strategy was embraced. But wow - this company would've made me affluent if I'd just kept my original holdings and not sold any off. It's quintupled in the last five years.

CODI - Holding company for a bunch of products I've never heard of. The stock price never moves, but it pays an 8%+ dividend. In the current bull market that's not a winner, but in the long run it is.

CVGW - Avocado grower. Pays a 1.3% dividend, and it just always goes up for me.

SEP - Natural gas pipeline company. It's down over the past couple of years, but it pays almost a 7 percent dividend and I keep thinking it'll turn around. I got a good runup three or four years ago.

PSX - I've read that Phillips 66 is more of a refiner than a producer, so they're less volatile to oil prices. Pays a 2.8% dividend.

RCL or CUK - Lots of baby boomers retiring with money, so I like cruise lines, and they countercycle with oil prices. RCL pays a 1.9% dividend and CUK pays 2.8%

MPW - REIT that leases medical office space. Pays a 7.1% dividend. Kind of like CODI above, in that the stock price doesn't move but it returns more than inflation.

GOOG - Probably everyone should have some Google at this point.

NDSN - As near as I can tell, they make nozzles and things for spraying stuff in industrial use. (Shrug.) 0.8% dividend, but it's done well for me. You may have missed the boat on it since it jumped 17 percent yesterday.

VZN - Pays a 4.5% dividend. I've muddled along with this stock but think it's a long-term gainer. Just a hunch.

SSW - I've lost my shirt on this ocean freighter company, with the stock down 40 percent since I bought it. But come on - it's profitable and it pays an 8.5% dividend. I've been buying it the whole way down until I reached a limit on how much I'll put into any stock. If it comes back, it'll produce some big gains and I don't see why it's down so much. I kind of want to buy more.

Two year check of this post I made on December 15, 2017. For those of you who subscribed to the Rain Man stock newsletter back in December 2017, if you had invested in all of these recommendations equally, you'd be up +32.6%, which beats Nasdaq (29.5%), the S&P 500 (+22.4%), and the Dow (+17.3%) during the same period. (Those calculations all include average dividend rates for the indices, and the current dividend rate for the stocks.)

Total Change 2-year dividend Price Change

Indices

Nasdaq 29.5% 3.6% 25.9%
Dow 17.3% 4.2% 13.1%
S&P 500 22.4% 4.0% 18.4%

Rain Man Newsletter Recommendations

TTWO 10.1% 0.0% 10.1%
CODI 61.2% 11.8% 49.3%
CVGW 19.2% 2.5% 16.7%
SEP Got bought and stuff, not going to bother calculating
PSX 19.5% 6.4% 13.1%
RCL 7.0% 5.0% 2.0%
CUK -22.7% 10.0% -32.6%
MPW 53.9% 10.4% 43.5%
GOOG 27.1% 0.0% 27.1%
NDSN 15.0% 1.8% 13.2%
VZ 23.5% 8.0% 15.5%
SSW 144.2% 7.2% 137.0%

SSW is my big star, and I had a lot of money in it back in December 2017. SSW makes me smile. CODI has also made a lot, and Amnorix and I have been touting MPW for a while, which is up 53.9 percent in two years.

CUK has been a beating for me in this group, so I hope no one listened to me on that one, but I think it'll come back.

[Hammock Parties]

IQ up another 4% today

RALLY!

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

I've learned I do best with great mutual funds with 20% + returns . I only own one individual stock right now.

I need to focus my attention on fishing.

[Rain Man]

Okay, how'd we do this year?

I ended up +22.9%. If you take out cash and only include active investments, I was up 25.5%.

I beat the Dow at 22.3%, but trailed the S&P 500 at 28.9% and Nasdaq at 35.2%

I'm kind of disappointed that I couldn't match the S&P, which is my benchmark for success. But I'm delighted to trail the market if I can bring home 20+% returns. It was a really good investing year all in all.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Okay, how'd we do this year?

I ended up +22.9%. If you take out cash and only include active investments, I was up 25.5%.

I beat the Dow at 22.3%, but trailed the S&P 500 at 28.9% and Nasdaq at 35.2%

I'm kind of disappointed that I couldn't match the S&P, which is my benchmark for success. But I'm delighted to trail the market if I can bring home 20+% returns. It was a really good investing year all in all.

Up 32% in the 401k. 100% stocks at my age.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Up 32% in the 401k. 100% stocks at my age.

Wow, nice work. What were your biggest holdings if I may ask?