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Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
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Old 08-15-2019, 09:41 AM   #3151
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I've never bought into that theory at all. First of all most people don't buy gold, they buy gold stocks. Secondly it's a brief hedge that fails to last. So unless you are good at timing you might as well buy the stocks that are down and benefit in the long run. If you want to trade gold then trade it. Otherwise the "you should always have 10% in gold" is a bunk philosophy in my opinion.

Finally, say you do buy physical gold. Take that to any retail store and let me know of they take it instead of $'s.
If you don't get it, I can't help you. There are plenty of alternatives to the stock market. The last week is the 4th largest drop in the market's history. Anyone buying stocks right now isn't seeing the bigger picture.
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Old 08-15-2019, 09:47 AM   #3152
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Great post and I have a single question:

What is the perception of the trade war with China as it pertains to China's complete theft of our intellectual property, the manipulation of the currency and the complete trade imbalance?
I don't think there's a simple answer to this. My own personal view is that Trump is certainly on the right track in standing up to China, particularly on the issue of IP theft, but his haphazard methods aren't always ideal, certainly not for markets that don't appreciate his 'madman' style of negotiating (if that's even his deliberate intention). I also don't think it's clear at all that China's currency is 'manipulated' (a lot of countries run managed exchange rates for very genuine reasons) or undervalued right now - many smart people who would argue the exact opposite (based on different FX valuation frameworks). And trade balance is determined by a number of factors that aren't always so clear cut.

In my industry, I'd say there's a general belief that standing up to China is a good thing, but it's an extremely difficult issue to fix and Trump is proving that daily.
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Old 08-15-2019, 09:50 AM   #3153
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If you don't get it, I can't help you. There are plenty of alternatives to the stock market. The last week is the 4th largest drop in the market's history. Anyone buying stocks right now isn't seeing the bigger picture.
Are you really saying that people regularly investing in their 401k with a defined asset allocation aren't seeing the big picture?
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:14 AM   #3154
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LOL. Well, I have met him before while visiting Pimco's offices, but his explanation basically parallels mine in that politics (read: Trump's trade fancies amongst others) are polluting markets. So now you have two people who are telling you that Trump is in large part responsible for the inversion of the yield curve. Hope you listen to El-Erian as he is indeed very smart and thoughtful.
He never once mentioned Trump. You're reaching. He did however blast central banks...

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Old 08-15-2019, 10:18 AM   #3155
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If you don't get it, I can't help you. There are plenty of alternatives to the stock market. The last week is the 4th largest drop in the market's history. Anyone buying stocks right now isn't seeing the bigger picture.
4th largest what??? ...we aren't even I correction territory. And who cares if we get there? Remember Black Monday, The DotCom Bubble, The Great Recession, 2016 & Q4 2018? All those were the end of the world and stocks were terrible! Unless you bought them of course.

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Old 08-15-2019, 10:24 AM   #3156
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He never once mentioned Trump. You're reaching. He did however blast central banks...

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Wow. What do you think he’s referring to when he mentions ‘politics’ exactly? Brexit? Italy? Argentina?
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:34 AM   #3157
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Wow. What do you think he’s referring to when he mentions ‘politics’ exactly? Brexit? Italy? Argentina?
Reaching.....


Mohamed: $15t in negative rates globally. This is not a US story......

Whole host of political dislocations = ALL TRUMP??? WOW!

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Old 08-15-2019, 10:38 AM   #3158
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Not going to get political but anyone, regardless of whom or what party, that wins a Presidential election when literally all the odds are overwhelmingly against them is hardly an "idiot".
No, that term would be applicable to those who voted for him.

Is not qualified, never was qualified for public service.

A majority of voters told you as much.

Wonder how his Trump Moscow Resort is coming along..
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:41 AM   #3159
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If you don't get it, I can't help you. There are plenty of alternatives to the stock market. The last week is the 4th largest drop in the market's history. Anyone buying stocks right now isn't seeing the bigger picture.
No need to get all defensive. I never said I didn't "get it". I said I don't think it's all that it's cracked up to be.
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:42 AM   #3160
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No, that term would be applicable to those who voted for him.

Is not qualified, never was qualified for public service.

A majority of voters told you as much.

Wonder how his Trump Moscow Resort is coming along..
Take it to DC, ass wipe.
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:53 AM   #3161
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Reaching.....


Mohamed: $15t in negative rates globally. This is not a US story......


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It's not possible to have a conversation with someone who puts his hands over his ears and ignores 98% of a 6-minute clip. This sort of willfully obtuse behavior is exactly why I avoid DC and why I'll ignore you here going forward.
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:59 AM   #3162
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It's not possible to have a conversation with someone who puts his hands over his ears and ignores 98% of a 6-minute clip. This sort of willfully obtuse behavior is exactly why I avoid DC and why I'll ignore you here going forward.
I am not the one laying the blame of an inverted yield curve solely at the feet of one person. I am sorry you do not like who the President is but frankly it doesn't matter. You tried this same shit with me about Tyreek Hill and again you weren't really close to right.

I am not trying to discount your market takes per say but I am laughing at your obvious attempt to blame President Trump for all the world's ills. That, my friend is being willfully obtuse. Please go ahead and ignore me. I won't worry much about it.
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Old 08-15-2019, 11:11 AM   #3163
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Old 08-15-2019, 11:47 AM   #3164
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You people are focusing on the wrong thing. The Super Bowl stock market indicator is the way to go. With Patrick Mahomes II at the helm, this is looking to be a bear market for many years to come.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_indicator
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Old 08-15-2019, 12:36 PM   #3165
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I don't think there's a simple answer to this. My own personal view is that Trump is certainly on the right track in standing up to China, particularly on the issue of IP theft, but his haphazard methods aren't always ideal, certainly not for markets that don't appreciate his 'madman' style of negotiating (if that's even his deliberate intention). I also don't think it's clear at all that China's currency is 'manipulated' (a lot of countries run managed exchange rates for very genuine reasons) or undervalued right now - many smart people who would argue the exact opposite (based on different FX valuation frameworks). And trade balance is determined by a number of factors that aren't always so clear cut.

In my industry, I'd say there's a general belief that standing up to China is a good thing, but it's an extremely difficult issue to fix and Trump is proving that daily.
I would agree if China was an immature, unstable or small economy but nothing could be further from the truth now after 25 years of massive growth and controlled capitalism.

Their currency should be floating not fixed. That makes them a currency manipulator.
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