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Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
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Old 08-14-2019, 09:24 AM   #3121
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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This stock markets making people cranky.
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Old 08-14-2019, 09:47 AM   #3122
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This stock markets making people cranky.
Lewdog only screams **** you! to those he likes.
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Old 08-14-2019, 09:53 AM   #3123
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Lewdog only screams **** you! to those he likes.
He must really, really like me!
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Old 08-14-2019, 10:13 AM   #3124
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Old 08-14-2019, 10:28 AM   #3125
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Dow down 666 right now
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:04 AM   #3126
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Dow down 666 right now
Now at -740

Every single stock on the Dow is down led by the big banks JPM , GS over 4%
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:17 AM   #3127
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:27 AM   #3128
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We have more downside to go but I am buying lightly on the way down.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:10 PM   #3129
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We have more downside to go but I am buying lightly on the way down.
Will it be a volatile down swing (you think) or swift and steady?
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:27 PM   #3130
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Will it be a volatile down swing (you think) or swift and steady?
All downswings are volatile. Think of tearing down a house. You don't do it brick by brick. My target on the downside at the moment is between 2730 -2790 on the SP500.

If you ever look at a downturn in the market look at a chart of the VIX. You will quickly see that increased volatility and down markets go hand in hand.
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:31 PM   #3131
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Old 08-14-2019, 01:39 PM   #3132
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Heard a great analysis today on CNBC by a Treasury trader who said this entire inversion crap goes back on the shoulders of the Fed and their aggressive rate hiking last year. Now they actually need to start dumping their $2.4t worth of 10 years and cut rates to get the curve back to normal.
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Old 08-14-2019, 05:15 PM   #3133
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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I like this guy . I've watched several of his videos and i have to say I agree with 99% of what he says. Maybe that's why I like him.
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Old 08-14-2019, 05:37 PM   #3134
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Heard a great analysis today on CNBC by a Treasury trader who said this entire inversion crap goes back on the shoulders of the Fed and their aggressive rate hiking last year. Now they actually need to start dumping their $2.4t worth of 10 years and cut rates to get the curve back to normal.
Sorry, but that’s an entirely ridiculous analysis.

Term premium - or the amount investors are compensated for investing in longer maturity interest rates - is low. A portion of that is a function of the Fed’s large holdings of Treasury securities. But a larger portion is the fact that 30y German bonds are yielding -0.20% (exerting a global pull lower in yield) and a portion is a function of lower inflation expectations than we’ve faced in many, many decades. So it’s a lot easier

You’ll hear a lot about how the inverted yield curve is an indicator of a coming recession. And while that may be true, there are lots and lots of reasons why it could easily be giving a false positive in this environment given the much reduced term premium mentioned above (ie, inversion has a much lower bar) and a sort of self-fulfilling quality to it all as the Treasury rally tends to accelerate when it inverts because of its alleged meaning. I’d also mention that liquidity - that is, the ease with which one buys and sells - in Treasuries is abysmal right now (JPM released a paper today mentioning that it declined by a factor of 3 this month), and August is seasonally a month very favorable to a flattening of the yield curve.

In any case, if the Fed actually started selling Treasury securities as per the trader you saw on CNBC (I wanna LOL at that), equities would be down 10% tomorrow.

The Fed hasn’t been the problem here, no matter what Trump tells you.
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Old 08-14-2019, 07:30 PM   #3135
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You **** off...the vast majority of traders use an SMA, tard ****er.
Now you tell me!!!

Thanks a lot asshole!
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