*****The Josh Simmons Thread*****

[Dante84]

More to come!

��

— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) April 25, 2025

Several teams agree: Josh Simmons had best tape of any OT last year. And they aren't very concerned with recovery on the torn patella tendon. More of the concern is maturity/character. But he's going to the ideal, veteran-laden place.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) April 25, 2025

the #chiefs get LT Josh Simmons out of Ohio State. If Simmons didn't suffer a torn patellar tendon he would have been the first tackle off the board. I had one team tell me he was the most athletic and talented tackle tape they watched. There are some maturity issues, but this…

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 25, 2025

The #Chiefs have selected #OSU OT Josh Simmons at No. 32, a player recovering nicely from a torn patellar tendon. They are comfortable with his rehab and did endless homework on it. https://t.co/awdb0JhPed

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2025

The #Chiefs are selecting Ohio State LT Josh Simmons at No. 32 to close out Round 1.

A key addition to bolster the offensive line in front of Patrick Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/oBx2CjzmCe

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 25, 2025

[FloridaMan88]

That’s impressive…

Josh Simmons is such a great pickup for KC at No. 32 overall. He allowed just one sack on 443 pass-blocking snaps in 2023.

He was off to an even better start in 2024, yielding just one hurry (!!) on 158 pass-blocking snaps before getting hurt.

Incredible value. Love it!

— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) April 25, 2025

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Reminder from kccrow:



Let's talk about the data set I shared in March regarding Patellar injuries in the NFL, since not many care to read. It's here: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article...rmance%20level
31/56 (55%) players returned to the NFL from a patellar injury (RTP).
Of those, 13/50 (26%) returned to play as many games post-injury as they had pre-injury (RTP Games).
Only 8/50 (16%) returned to start as many games post-injury as they had pre-injury (RTP Starts).
The 6 (11%) in the remainder, despite returning to the NFL, never saw another snap.
Of the 50 that saw snaps, only 12 (24%) returned to prior PFF level of performance at any point (RTP Performance)
Among those 12, 7 (14%) returned to prior performance after 1 year and 5 (10%) after 2 years.
OL specifically was 6/17 (35%) RTP, 1/16 (6%) RTP Games, 1/16 (6%) RTP Starts, and 2/16 (13%) RTP Performance with 1 RTPP (6%) after 1 year and 1 (6%) after 2 years.

We are not talking about great odds here people. The media and agents can cook this up howevery they want to cook it. Its a blood-flow injury, so it's going to heal up just fine. Healing up doesn't mean he's ever going to be able to play the same. The elasticity of that tendon is forever affected. His ability to generate power and torque from his quads to the ground is forever affected.

You can look deeper at the stats if you want. Purely looking at OL, he has a 13% chance of ever returning to play at his prior level of performance (this favors Simmons over RTP Starts or RTP Games). Data says 83% of NFL first-round picks on the offensive line hit. So, chances are you'll play somewhere on the OL. 59% actually hit at OT, so a healthy portion of guys drafted to be OTs end up playing some other position.

So if he has a 13% shot of returning to his prior form and a 59% chance of playing OT, then he falls somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8% chance he'll make it as an OT. He has about an 11% chance of ever being anything on the OL.

Is that what you want from your 1st round pick, folks? I don't. In fact, that screams 7th rounder or UDFA. That doesn't even scream 2nd or 3rd rounder.

I'd be willing to take a shot in the dark in round 3. I mean, there is that remote potential that he ends up defying all odds. It's not due to his youth because less experienced, and younger players actually have worse odds in the study. It's merely one of those "so you're telling me there's a chance" situations.

Well, this assessment certainly gives me pause. But I still have to believe that the Chiefs medical evaluation had to be very positive to take him on day one. I personally would rather take the chance on him than draft a running back. I just don't think that's any better. The Raiders drafted Jacob in the high first. That didn't help them become relevant. The Giants wee stupid to take Barkley in the first, the Chiefs wasted a first round pick on CEH. They got more production in the 3rd round with Hunt and the 7th with Pacheco. They can get a good running back tomorrow or Saturday.

[louie aguiar]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I’m calling it… Josh Simmons @ #32 > Eric Fisher @ #1.

Yep- we’re gonna look back at this as a steal. This could be our best left tackle since Willie Roaf.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's not paying attention. He's been spoon fed it a half dozen times and then just says 'nuh uh'

What's funny is that these geniuses think that we want the pick to fail. As if we would. What we didn't want was the pick to happen at all at this juncture because the chances it does fail are so astronomically high.

I'm all about risk. I champion trading up and taking chances as much as anyone. Calculated risk though versus something akin to throwing your hands up in the air and saying "why the **** not" are two different things to me.

I don't blindly trust Veach in all things like many do, he's absolutely missed quite a few high picks. This one certainly makes me question his decision once again.

[carcosa]

I am 100% confident that he will be a first ballot hall of famer!!!!

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Yep. I think the missing element in the studies that people are quoting is that the teams absorbed the injury when the player was on the team. It's not like they had the option to not have the player on the team.

The Chiefs looked at Mr. Simmons after the injury and recovery. They had the opportunity to pass on him if they weren't seeing recovery. So that brings up the question of when it's possible to tell that a player is making a strong recovery or not. The Chiefs are obviously comfortable that they're evaluating Mr. Simmons at a point in time where his recovery can be thoroughly evaluated, and they're comfortable with it.

I don't care if only 20 percent of players come back if we're able to determine that he's in that 20 percent before we draft him.

E-X-A-C-T-L-Y.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Literally NOBODY has said they have inside info.

All anybody has said, at all, ever, is based on what HE has said and publicly available information.

HE has said he had the surgery to rebuild his patella.

And the publicly available data is that there's never been an NFL offensive lineman who has successfully recovered from that injury to play at/near his previous level.

That's it.

And those are both absolutely true statements.

If he makes it back to his pre-injury form he will literally be the first person in league HISTORY to have done so while playing offensive line.

The Chiefs have had 7 left tackles start for them in 4 years since Eric Fisher ruptured his Achilles, including a LG moving to LT.

They’ve tried literally everything. Trading for a veteran, drafting a developmental player in rd 3 then drafting a guy who many people thought was a 1st rd talent.

It all failed and your HOF QB has reverted mentally in large part bc of LT being a catastrophe. Low A-Dot, checkdowns, boring offense. It’s by far the biggest problem with this team and it’s not even close.

The Chiefs have become very desperate, BUT I will say this right now: if these assholes are right about this kid and he’s a solid player, we’re going to be winning more SB’s and the old high scoring offense will be coming back.

[smithandrew051]

I’d feel much better if he was just potentially involved in a murder like Lael Collins.

[JohnnyV13]

I remember another young Chiefs draft pick who got a then unusual knee surgery called microfracture after playing only 1 game his rookie year.

People worried if he'd get his explosion back. He also had maturity issues.

Travis Kelce has been pretty good.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by kccrow

What's funny is that these geniuses think that we want the pick to fail. As if we would. What we didn't want was the pick to happen at all at this juncture because the chances it does fail are so astronomically high.

I'm all about risk. I champion trading up and taking chances as much as anyone. Calculated risk though versus something akin to throwing your hands up in the air and saying "why the **** not" are two different things to me.

I don't blindly trust Veach in all things like many do, he's absolutely missed quite a few high picks. This one certainly makes me question his decision once again.

You think Veach takes him if he only has a 13% chance to fully recover? They are expecting a full recovery this year st some point.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by carcosa

I am 100% confident that he will be a first ballot hall of famer!!!!

He's so good our next QB will be a first ballot hall of famer, too.

It's going to be like having two Willie Roafs playing LT on every snap.

Teams will stop rushing anyone and drop everyone into coverage and we will run the ball on every snap.

[Jerok]

I was gonna move up and trade a 3rd or 4th to get this guy. Instead we moved down and got a 5th.

JET BLEACH MY MAN

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

This is the crucial point that many in here are missing.

We're not just rolling the dice on an average case for this injury. So it's not like we have a player who just got injured yesterday and we're mapping out the odds of his future without having any of the relevant details.

We have medical professionals looking at the specifics of THIS CASE post-surgery and after some meaningful level of recovery. If you think our medical team is a bunch of ****ing morons, then fine. If you think Reid and Veach were so desperate for this pick despite the fact that we traded back a slot to take him, then fine.

But there's real evidence the team did real work on the medicals and felt like he's probably going to be in the top 10% of whatever recovery study people want to throw out there.

So please, spare us all with the bland statistics. We have a case 1 of 1 with unique details, and the team clearly felt good enough to go in this direction.

I’m hoping they’re right.

The issues with this injury - the loss of elasticity and transferring power and explosive movement from the quad to the lower leg - are things you can’t test for yet or know at this point.

If all he’s squatting right now is 225, we’re a long way from knowing how the repaired tendon is going to hold up.

The odds are against it, heavily.

Maybe he’s Jason Peters and such a strong upper body guy he can work around it and be fine. Or maybe he really is going to get all the way back. We’ll see.

The data suggests otherwise.

My old roommate/coworker at Sporting News and I spoke earlier tonight. We talk every year on draft night before it kicks off. She’s married to a PhD PT who works in sports orthopaedics.

The info he passed along tracks with the data.

So yeah. I’ll hope my concerns are chicken little and it all works out. I won’t be able to believe it until I see it.

[louie aguiar]

He’s elite in pass pro

Josh Simmons is the only OT in the SIS draft board stats database (since 2023) without a blown pass block in his draft season pic.twitter.com/qR42DEPSJu

— Shaun Newkirk (@Shauncore) April 25, 2025

[Balto]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Okay - THIS I can get behind.

Juice this ****er, stat.

Actually I’ll agree with you on this! Worst case he gets a 4 game suspension but is now gtg muahahah