Mahomes vs. Brady: If Chiefs win Super Bowl, there will be a new playoff GOAT

[Hammock Parties]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/611...&userId=729655

If Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl this Sunday in New Orleans, the debate is over. Mahomes would become the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. Tom Brady fans might not want to admit it, but they wouldn’t have to. A mountain of evidence points to Mahomes taking the mantle from him.

Before diving into the debate, let’s clear one thing up: With all due respect to the other quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings (Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw), this is a two-horse race. Mahomes has already won more playoff games than Montana (17-16), and Bradshaw’s statistical profile pales in comparison with Brady’s and Mahomes’.

So it’s really down to two. And as you’re about to see, it’s actually down to one. Mahomes is in position to become the clear playoff GOAT.

Admittedly, it’s shocking how little time it will have taken for the torch to be passed. Just two years after Brady announced his retirement, Mahomes is poised to do something Brady — or any other QB — never did: win a third consecutive Super Bowl. Just by getting to this stage, he’s already accomplished something Brady never did. No quarterback who had won back-to-back titles had ever even returned to the Super Bowl in their quest for a three-peat. Until Mahomes. If he wins Sunday, he’ll be a four-time champion before he turns 30 — once again, something no other quarterback has ever done.

As you’ll see, the only argument in favor of Brady being the better all-time playoff QB than Mahomes is longevity. If you argue Brady is still the playoff GOAT because he won more rings (7-4 if Mahomes wins Sunday) in his 21 seasons as a healthy starter, that’s your prerogative. But just remember, Brady won 33 percent of the Super Bowls he was eligible to win; if Mahomes wins Sunday, he’ll be at 57 percent (4-of-7 as a starter). By the time Brady won his fourth title (at age 37), he was at 30 percent.

By the time you’re finished reading this story, you will understand that a four-time Super Bowl champion Mahomes wins the argument in three of the primary categories you would use to settle this debate. Mahomes will have the higher peak (three-peat); his performance in the clutch far supersedes Brady’s; and he has easily been the superior statistical performer.

Let’s start with that last point. If you just want to use stats to analyze Brady vs. Mahomes in the playoffs, this debate won’t last long. It’s Mahomes by a mile.

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 1



As you can see, Mahomes has the advantage in just about every stat that’s indicative of quarterback success or is typically used in determining superiority. Brady’s only advantage comes in sack percentage and in the places where longevity matters (total wins, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives). But Mahomes is already closing in on Brady’s game-winning drives total, despite playing in 28 fewer games.

From an advanced metric standpoint, Mahomes’ 0.23 EPA is roughly equivalent to what Buffalo Bills superstar Josh Allen (0.24) posted during the regular season. That is to say, Mahomes plays at an MVP level in the playoffs. Brady’s mark of 0.14 nearly mirrors what Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (0.13) posted this season.

It’s also worth pointing out what an asset Mahomes has been as a runner in the playoffs. Despite playing in 28 fewer games, he’s already tallied more rushing touchdowns and first downs than Brady — the original king of the QB sneak — ever did. And that’s with virtually no difference in passing volume. Mahomes averages 277.8 passing yards per game in the postseason, and Brady averaged 279.2.

Taken on the whole, there’s pretty much no statistical argument for Brady.

But Mahomes’ superiority goes beyond total stats. We all know Brady’s reputation in the playoffs was that if you gave him the ball in a had-to-have-it situation, he was going to make you pay. It was inevitable. Put another way: Before Mahomes, you could have won any GOAT QB argument in favor of Brady by simply asking: If you could pick any quarterback to win one playoff game, who would it be?

The answer was Brady. It had to be. But not anymore. If you could pick any QB to win one big game, to lead your team down the field in a have-to-have-it situation, you pick Mahomes. He’s the new clutch king.

The data speaks for itself. These are their playoff numbers in one-score games in the last five minutes and overtime:

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 2



The gap between Mahomes and Brady is even wider here. Look at the EPA. Brady raised his play to MVP level in these scenarios, but Mahomes goes to another planet. The greatest EPA regular season ever recorded (dating to 2000) was posted by Peyton Manning in 2004. He delivered 0.45 EPA, according to TruMedia. Brady’s historic 2007 season EPA was 0.41. Somehow, when it matters most, Mahomes is better than the best ever.

Brady and the New England Patriots used to feel inevitable, but they don’t hold a candle to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Now, to get ahead of (at least) one argument Brady’s defenders will try to use, we’ve analyzed another set of data to prove the point. Eras.

Some will say the early part of Brady’s career occurred before the league became so pass heavy. That’s somewhat fair. Though it’s impossible to assess what kind of numbers Brady might have posted if he had played in a more pass-happy league in the early part of his career, it’s at least worth mentioning the difference in eras isn’t quite as severe as you’d think.

NFL teams in 2024 averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns and 217.6 yards per game. In 2000, Brady’s first year as a starter, teams averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns and 206.9 yards per game. QBs today complete a greater percentage of passes and throw fewer interceptions, but again, the numbers aren’t drastic.

Still, let’s try to even things out a little. Let’s drop early-career Brady and his first three Super Bowls and use only his numbers from 2014 until his retirement, a span in which he won four Super Bowls.

That’s an eight-year sample, similar to the seven years Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas City, with their time overlapping for five seasons (2018-22). So, let’s take a look at how the data stacks up now. Again, we’re looking at one-score playoff games in the last five minutes and overtime:



Brady saw an increase in his performance when dropping his 2001-13 data, but it’s clear his numbers still don’t stack up against Mahomes’. It’s a similar story if you move away from clutch situations and look at their playoff numbers as a whole. Mahomes wins in almost every significant category.

Sure, it’s fair to suggest Mahomes’ metrics could fade as he ages. After all, few have ever held off time and aged as gracefully as Brady. Then again, haven’t we all learned by now that betting against Mahomes is a bad idea?

OK, so when we said there was only one argument (longevity) in favor of Brady, that might have been a touch unfair. It should at least be mentioned that Brady is 2-0 against Mahomes in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl victory.

However, for those keen to use that argument for Brady, let’s remember Eli Manning is 2-0 against Brady in the playoffs, including two Super Bowls, and no one would dare suggest Manning is the superior playoff quarterback. Two games are too small of a sample to determine much, and head-to-head matchups are too circumstantial to use as significant evidence.

The truth is, the further you dive into this debate, the more the evidence stacks up for Mahomes over Brady. Here’s just a small sampling of further research:

• With a win against the Eagles on Sunday, Mahomes will have won 10 straight playoff games, which would tie Brady’s record from 2001 to 2005. The difference, however, is Brady’s Patriots missed the playoffs entirely in 2002, whereas no one has beaten the Chiefs since the 2021 AFC Championship Game.

• Mahomes already has the second-most wins in the playoffs when his team trails by double-digits (five). He’s only one behind Brady, but Mahomes is 5-2 when he has found himself down double digits, and Brady finished 6-8.

• Mahomes’ teams have scored 595 points in his first 20 playoff games (29.7 points per game); Brady’s teams scored 455 (23.9) in his first 20. Want to adjust for era again? Mahomes’ 595 points are more than Brady’s teams scored in his last 20 playoff games, too (568).

• Brady’s defenses only allowed 20.8 points per game in the playoffs, and Mahomes’ defenses have yielded 23.1. Once again, if you adjust for era and only count Brady’s playoff games from 2014 onward, Brady still got more help from his defenses. They allowed just 21.8 points per game.

I understand those who want to stand by Brady and his seven championships. But if you had to pick one QB to win a Super Bowl, could you really pick against Mahomes? I couldn’t.

If his Chiefs win Sunday, the debate will be over. Mahomes will be the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. And part of me wonders: Isn’t that just really saying he’s the greatest quarterback of all time?

That’s an argument for another day.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

Yeah nevermind the super bowl winning seasons in which the patriots cheated, but those are all minor details...

Yeah cheated!

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by Omaha

If I have 1 drive to win the game & I can have any QB to do it, Brady is not in my top 10.

This is crazy. Name em.


(And goddamn you for making me defend Brady.)

[mr. tegu]

Fourth quarter and OT in playoffs passer rating, Mahomes 101. Brady 81. This is honestly not even close.

[mr. tegu]

It’s so annoying that this is only even a debate because of Dee Ford. Mahomes vastly outplayed Brady in that game but Brady gets the “2-0 vs Mahomes in the playoffs.”

[BWillie]

There is an argument that Mahomes is Tom Brady's Josh Allen.

0-2 in playoffs and when it counted...while Brady was an old man.

I don't like it but those are the results.

For Mahomes to be the goat he has to win the 3peat and win 7 to 8 Super Bowls.

The good news is he is ahead of Brady's pace.

[Kman34]

I don’t need charts and a bunch of text to tell me that…. I see it every week and every playoffs..

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Yeah cheated!

Yeah, cheating is exactly right. Perhaps you should do some research on what the Patriots actually did to break the rules between 2000-2006.

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by BWillie

There is an argument that Mahomes is Tom Brady's Josh Allen.

0-2 in playoffs and when it counted...while Brady was an old man.

I don't like it but those are the results.

For Mahomes to be the goat he has to win the 3peat and win 7 to 8 Super Bowls.

The good news is he is ahead of Brady's pace.

Says who? Brady re-wrote what it meant to be the GOAT. The Montana standard was 4-0 in super bowls and no INTs. Brady changed that narrative. Mahomes has a chance to do the same.

If Mahomes 3-peats and wins another 2, he'll have 6 in total and the three-peat could be seen as a sort-of tie breaker. H2H is such a silly argument when Brady didn't even play well in the 2018 AFCCG (1 TD, 2 INTs) despite playing the worst defense in the NFL under Bob Sutton.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s so annoying that this is only even a debate because of Dee Ford. Mahomes vastly outplayed Brady in that game but Brady gets the “2-0 vs Mahomes in the playoffs.”

He also outplayed him in LV, although the stats don't show it.

Brady game managed to a win that day. The Chiefs OL did all the heavy lifting.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

Says who? Brady re-wrote what it meant to be the GOAT. The Montana standard was 4-0 in super bowls and no INTs. Brady changed that narrative. Mahomes has a chance to do the same.

If Mahomes 3-peats and wins another 2, he'll have 6 in total and the three-peat could be seen as a sort-of tie breaker. H2H is such a silly argument when Brady didn't even play well in the 2018 AFCCG (1 TD, 2 INTs) despite playing the worst defense in the NFL under Bob Sutton.

The head to head and the three peat would cancel each other out

He needs 7 or 8

He needs to focus on being healthy in his 30s and eating right to do it.

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by BWillie

The head to head and the three peat would cancel each other out

He needs 7 or 8

He needs to focus on being healthy in his 30s and eating right to do it.

No he doesn't. Again, some of you are just making the rules up as you go along.

In no other team sport is a player with the most titles consider the GOAT of that sport.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

No he doesn't. Again, some of you are just making the rules up as you go along.

In no other team sport is a player with the most titles consider the GOAT of that sport.

They are if they also put up numbers and were the leader of the team which Brady was.

[RunKC]

Mahomes would have the threepeat, best season ever with 18-1 record (Brady lost SB) and the best prime/under 30 resume of any QB ever. It would give him an early start where Tom went a decade between SB’s 3 and 4.

This Sunday is a legacy game. Really need to take advantage of it

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

No he doesn't. Again, some of you are just making the rules up as you go along.

In no other team sport is a player with the most titles consider the GOAT of that sport.

Most seasons leading the league with TDs (5)
Most passing TDs in NFL history...by 80
Most passing yards in NFL history..by nine thousand
Tied for 2nd with Mahomes with most TD passes in a season

I do not like Brady.
I don't think Brady is as physically talented as Mahomes...duh.

But results are results.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by Omaha

Super Bowls are team accomplishments and, if you play for 120 years, you're bound to have a lot of comebacks. For as long as he played, he should have been much higher on that list.

The SB thing is dumb. By that logic, Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino.

Sure. And if Mahomes wasn’t the QB we would be the ****ing Texans