DVOA and Postseason odds tracking

[Hammock Parties]

Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

3rd Ovr.
9th Off.
4th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds


96%.2 chance AFC West title
76.4% chance 1 seed (1st)
64.9% chance AFCCG App (1st)
38.6% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.7% chance SB Win (2nd)
5.7% chance 17-0 (1st)

[Hammock Parties]

Bills have taken over the top spot.

Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

13th Ovr.
11th Off.
20th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds

78.9% chance AFC West title
27.6% 1 seed (2nd)
38.9% chance AFCCG App (2nd)
19.8% AFCCG Win (2nd)
10.6% chance SB Win (3rd)
0.4% chance 17-0 (2nd)

[Hammock Parties]

Time for the haters to suck it this week.

9th Ovr.
9th Off.
15th Def.

85% chance AFC West title
40.4% 1 seed (1st) (next highest is only 16.7%)
45.8% chance AFCCG App (1st)
24.7% AFCCG Win (2nd)
13.3% chance SB Win (2nd)
0.5% chance 17-0 (1st)

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Time for the haters to suck it this week.

9th Ovr.
9th Off.
15th Def.

85% chance AFC West title
40.4% 1 seed (1st) (next highest is only 16.7%)
45.8% chance AFCCG App (1st)
24.7% AFCCG Win (2nd)
13.3% chance SB Win (2nd)
0.5% chance 17-0 (1st)

People are bitching and crying about Mahomes destroying the offense each week, but they're still 9th overall offensively through 4 weeks despite virtually all of the team's weapons going down to injury.

[Hammock Parties]

That's because the floor for Mahomes is still, largely, an above average game for most QBs.

Dude was 19/29 for 245 yards. We'd have killed for that every week not even 10 years ago.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Time for the haters to suck it this week.

9th Ovr.
9th Off.
15th Def.

85% chance AFC West title
40.4% 1 seed (1st) (next highest is only 16.7%)
45.8% chance AFCCG App (1st)
24.7% AFCCG Win (2nd)
13.3% chance SB Win (2nd)
0.5% chance 17-0 (1st)

Sure feels like the Defense is better than #15 in the league. Some rough opening drives, but they’ve done a great job adjusting in the 2nd quarter and beyond for each game.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Sure feels like the Defense is better than #15 in the league. Some rough opening drives, but they’ve done a great job adjusting in the 2nd quarter and beyond for each game.

The entire team is coasting most of these games until the end of them IMO, they’ve been stepping up when it matters

4th quarter DVOA would be interesting to test that hypothesis if they could divide it out that way.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

The entire team is coasting most of these games until the end of them IMO, they’ve been stepping up when it matters

4th quarter DVOA would be interesting to test that hypothesis if they could divide it out that way.

3rd quarter has been pretty good as well.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

45.8% chance AFCCG App (1st)
24.7% AFCCG Win (2nd)
13.3% chance SB Win (2nd)
0.5% chance 17-0 (1st)

Slight uptick after MNF

46.5%
25.1%
13.8%
0.7%

[Hammock Parties]

Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

3rd Ovr.
5th Off.
10th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds

90.6% chance AFC West title
55.2% 1 seed (1st) (next highest is only 17.9%)
55.4% chance AFCCG App (1st)
31.5% AFCCG Win (1st)
18.5% chance SB Win (1st)
1.4% chance 17-0 (1st)

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

3rd Ovr.
5th Off.
10th Def.

I'm not sure what kind of schedule adjustment he does with DVOA (particularly this early in the season) but I know we're a better team in those areas than even that suggests. The Chiefs have easily faced the toughest schedule in the league so far.

[KC_Connection]

The Minnesota Vikings remain on top of our DVOA ratings after five weeks of 2024, but the big mover this week is the defending champion (and also undefeated) Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs significantly outplayed the highly ranked New Orleans Saints on Monday night with their best game of the season, finishing with 53% DVOA compared to -28% for the Saints. That moved the Chiefs up six spots from last week and put them third behind the Vikings and the No. 2 Baltimore Ravens.

It certainly feels like the Chiefs have not played up to their record, at least until last night, and part of that is the schedule that the Chiefs have played. Kansas City has gone undefeated against the hardest schedule in the league so far by average DVOA of opponent. They have beaten the teams ranked second (Baltimore), fourth (New Orleans), 12th (Cincinnati), 13th (Atlanta), and 17th (the Los Angeles Chargers). Those ranks are a little biased because New Orleans and the Chargers walloped the Bryce Young Carolina Panthers but are getting adjusted based on the entire Carolina season, but still, it’s a really impressive schedule so far.

It gets a lot easier for Kansas City after this, as their remaining schedule ranks 28th based on current DVOA. Their only remaining opponents who currently rank in the top 10 in DVOA are San Francisco (9), Houston (7), and Buffalo (6). The Chiefs also have four games remaining against teams in the bottom four: two against Las Vegas (29) and one each against Carolina (30) and Cleveland (32).

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-5-dv...fs-on-the-rise

1st ranked schedule to this point, 28th ranked schedule the rest of the way.

[Hammock Parties]

Not going to update until tomorrow, but Chiefs took a hit in the polls after Baltimore won. They are now the favorites. FAKE NEWS?

[ThaVirus]

According to DVOA, our offense is better than our defense?

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Not going to update until tomorrow, but Chiefs took a hit in the polls after Baltimore won. They are now the favorites. FAKE NEWS?

What do you think Clayster?!!!

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by New World Order

What do you think Clayster?!!!

Chiefs need to start campaigning in states we are unlikely to win. I'm expecting a rally this weekend in California. While it's not typically a red state, Mahomes polled well there in 2022.