Mock (6/26)

[Direckshun]

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs do very well in the 2024 season. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach are retained.

2. The Chiefs re-work QB Patrick Mahomes contract, partially extending him and lowering his cap number from his currently-gargantuan $66.2m cap hit.

3. The Chiefs re-sign: C Creed Humphrey, 5 years, $75m; $LB Nick Bolton 4 years, $68m; CB Nazeeh Johnson 1 year, $5m; K Harrison Butker 4 years, $24m

4. The Chiefs re-sign to minimal deals: QB Carson Wentz, WR Justin Watson, DT Tershawn Wharton, S Deon Bush, P Matt Araiza

5. The Chiefs tender the following RFAs: DE Malik Herring, LB Jack Cochrane, OG/C Mike Caliendo, CB Keith Taylor, S Trey Dean

6. The Chiefs let walk: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Marquise Brown, WR Kadarius Toney, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Noah Gray, TE Irv Smith, OT Lucas Niang, OG Trey Smith, DT Mike Pennel, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Matt Dickerson, DE Charles Omenihu, CB Ekow Boye-Doe, S Justin Reid, LS James Winchester

7. The Chiefs sign the following free agents: RB Nyheim Hines (Browns), TE Tre McKitty (Bills), DT B.J. Hill (Bengals), DE Carlos Basham, Jr. (Giants)

8. The Draft:

1. DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State
2. WR Antwane Wells, Jr., Ole Miss
3 (Sneed). TE Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame
3. RB Donovan Edwards, Michigan
4. DT T.J. Sanders, South Carolina
5. OG Miles Frazier, LSU
7 (Smith-Marsette pick swap). LB Jack Kiser, Notre Dame
7 (Hardman pick swap). RB Damien Martinez, Miami

The roster:

QB: Mahomes, Wentz
RB: Pacheco, Edwards, Hines, Martinez

WR: Rice, Wells, Worthy, Remigio, Watson, Moore
TE: Kelce, Wylie, Evans, McKitty

LT: Suamataia, Morris
LG: Thuney, Frazier
C: Humphrey, Hansen
RG: Nourzad, Caliendo
RT: Taylor, Morris

DE: Danna, Anudike-Uzomah, Herring
DT: Jones, Wharton, Sanders
DT: Hill, Lovett
DE: Karlaftis, Dennis-Sutton, Basham

WLB: Tranquill, Jones, Kiser
MLB: Bolton, Tranquill, Cochrane
SLB: Chenal, Cochrane

CB: McDuffie, Williams, Johnson, Watson, Jones, Taylor
S: Cook, Hadden, Conner, Dean, Bush

K: Butker
P: Araiza
LS: some guy

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm fine with it, but he's gonna be a 28-30 million dollar per year guy with 75 million guaranteed.

We still have what amounts to 4 years of cost control with George. Two on his rookie deal, the 5th year option, and the first year of his new contract. That will put Jones in the final year of his deal by the time the money starts to hit. As long as we're good with other contracts, it should be fine. Who knows if Jones will even play that last year, he might retire by then.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by kccrow

We still have what amounts to 4 years of cost control with George. Two on his rookie deal, the 5th year option, and the first year of his new contract. That will put Jones in the final year of his deal by the time the money starts to hit. As long as we're good with other contracts, it should be fine. Who knows if Jones will even play that last year, he might retire by then.

If he has another year that progresses as the last 2 have, he’s not seeing that 5th year option

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

If he has another year that progresses as the last 2 have, he’s not seeing that 5th year option

Did it feel like he plateaued around week 12?

He absolutely looked significantly better in the first several weeks than he had as a rookie and looked to be getting better week over week. But I felt like he maybe hit a ceiling in the latter 1/3 or so of the year.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Did it feel like he plateaued around week 12?

He absolutely looked significantly better in the first several weeks than he had as a rookie and looked to be getting better week over week. But I felt like he maybe hit a ceiling in the latter 1/3 or so of the year.

Maybe.

I'm just saying if he has another double digit sack season, I don't know how he doesn't ask for something like Brian Burns or Josh Allen got.

[MahomesMagic]

Rather pay Hollywood than Bolton.

Sorry, I am not a fan of paying big money to off-ball linebackers unless they are absolutely special.

[kozzman555]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Rather pay Hollywood than Bolton.

Sorry, I am not a fan of paying big money to off-ball linebackers unless they are absolutely special.

Since you're the one saying this, my knee jerk reaction is that we need to kill Hollywood and pay Bolton like a QB

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by kozzman555

Since you're the one saying this, my knee jerk reaction is that we need to kill Hollywood and pay Bolton like a QB

If you want to make the case to overpay an off-ball LB that isn't great in coverage or all 3 downs, be my guest.

Let's hear it.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by O.city

Maybe.

I'm just saying if he has another double digit sack season, I don't know how he doesn't ask for something like Brian Burns or Josh Allen got.

There is no way he's getting that and nor should he unless he takes another very big step forward. He is not at that level

[O.city]

Originally Posted by JPH83

There is no way he's getting that and nor should he unless he takes another very big step forward. He is not at that level

He's gonna be a 100 million plus dollar contract player. Chief fans need to accept that.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

There is no way he's getting that and nor should he unless he takes another very big step forward. He is not at that level

Justin Madubuike and Montez Sweat just got $24.5 million/season.

Sweat's a really good comp in that he was productive for the first 4 years of his career but didn't break out until year 5. he hit FA at 28 yrs old after his 5th year option.

Karlaftis will be 26 after his 5th year option. The salary cap projects at $314 million in 2027 when he'd be past his 5th year option. It was $255 million this year so Sweat's contract was roughly 9.6% of the cap when signed. 9.6% of the cap in 2027 would be....$30.1 million.

Karlaftis could EASILY be a $30 million player if he simply plays at this level for 3 more years. If he improves at all and/or has another mini-leap in his platform season, he'll beat that. He'll be 2 years younger than Sweat, has a similar pedigree, produced more early in his career and has a successful playoff track record.

4 years and $120 million is almost the floor for Karlaftis. If he takes another step forward, he's probably looking at 4/$140 million.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by O.city

He's gonna be a 100 million plus dollar contract player. Chief fans need to accept that.

Possible with wage inflation. We just see his value differently. He's a good, solid all-rounder. Someone like Allen is an elite rusher I just think the latter has a very different market value. But I guess we'll see in a few years. If he takes another big leap, maybe. I always thought his ceiling is Trey Hendrickson and if he gets there $20m is absolutely happening.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Justin Madubuike and Montez Sweat just got $24.5 million/season.

Sweat's a really good comp in that he was productive for the first 4 years of his career but didn't break out until year 5. he hit FA at 28 yrs old after his 5th year option.

Karlaftis will be 26 after his 5th year option. The salary cap projects at $314 million in 2027 when he'd be past his 5th year option. It was $255 million this year so Sweat's contract was roughly 9.6% of the cap when signed. 9.6% of the cap in 2027 would be....$30.1 million.

Karlaftis could EASILY be a $30 million player if he simply plays at this level for 3 more years. If he improves at all and/or has another mini-leap in his platform season, he'll beat that. He'll be 2 years younger than Sweat, has a similar pedigree, produced more early in his career and has a successful playoff track record.

4 years and $120 million is almost the floor for Karlaftis. If he takes another step forward, he's probably looking at 4/$140 million.

Was saying the same to O re the cap. That's a fair argument. Assuming we're talking in today's money, I don't think it's certain. My point is that he isn't at the level of a Sweat right now. Will he get there? Maybe.

[gordonelloyd]

Would hate to pay Bolton that much. We will see after this year whether we need to pay Hollywood Brown. If we do, I would rather pay him than Bolton. I don’t think we will need to pay Brown though, assuming rice continues to progress and worthy works out. It will really be a sign of failure if we have to draft another first round DE next year. Really hope FAU works out. I think we should try to sign Karlaftis early. he is going to be expensive. The longer we wait the more it will be. I THINK NEXT YEAR IF EVERYTHING WORKS OUT, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FOCUS ON A FIRST ROUND PICK FOR THE OL.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Justin Madubuike and Montez Sweat just got $24.5 million/season.

Sweat's a really good comp in that he was productive for the first 4 years of his career but didn't break out until year 5. he hit FA at 28 yrs old after his 5th year option.

Karlaftis will be 26 after his 5th year option. The salary cap projects at $314 million in 2027 when he'd be past his 5th year option. It was $255 million this year so Sweat's contract was roughly 9.6% of the cap when signed. 9.6% of the cap in 2027 would be....$30.1 million.

Karlaftis could EASILY be a $30 million player if he simply plays at this level for 3 more years. If he improves at all and/or has another mini-leap in his platform season, he'll beat that. He'll be 2 years younger than Sweat, has a similar pedigree, produced more early in his career and has a successful playoff track record.

4 years and $120 million is almost the floor for Karlaftis. If he takes another step forward, he's probably looking at 4/$140 million.

If he stays what he is right now, he's getting 4/120 easily. He'd have what....4 straight double digit sack seasons. Those guys get paid that, whether we feel he's that or not.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by JPH83

Possible with wage inflation. We just see his value differently. He's a good, solid all-rounder. Someone like Allen is an elite rusher I just think the latter has a very different market value. But I guess we'll see in a few years. If he takes another big leap, maybe. I always thought his ceiling is Trey Hendrickson and if he gets there $20m is absolutely happening.

If Karlaftis is Hendrickson as a ceiling, he's getting 150 million dollars when it's time to get paid.

Hendricksons last 3 years have been 14/8/17.5 sack seasons. If Karlaftis does that....he may end up being the the highest paid defender in football.