*****The Skyy Moore Thread*****

[Dante84]

More to come!

Skyy Moore: 91.8 PFF Grade last season

�� 1st among all WRs in College Football

Patrick Mahomes has a new weapon �� pic.twitter.com/wtqsxNh0LR

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 30, 2022

Patrick Mahomes is going to have a lot of fun throwing to Skyy Moore. Wins right off the line with great hands. Lots of smiles in Kansas City.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 30, 2022

New Chiefs (!!) WR Skyy Moore in #ReceptionPerception:

- Ranked 2nd among charted prospects in success rate vs. man (75%) and press coverage (75.7%)
- Led all prospects in success rate vs. zone coverage (88.1%)
- He can play inside and outsidehttps://t.co/HbifB61JlJ pic.twitter.com/HYsV8rlAzF

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 30, 2022

With the 54th Pick in the 2022 NFL Draft the @chiefs Select @skyymoore24 ��⚪️ @NFLDraft @NFL @nflnetwork @WMU_Football @espn @SportsCenter @210ths pic.twitter.com/WOPtw9M5FP

— Prospect Media (@prospectmedia_) April 30, 2022

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by Bowser

I'll go 46rec for 593yds and 5TDs for young Skyy in '23.

I think your low. I'm going 47 for 594 and 6 TD's.

Actually a Skyy prediction thread is a great idea. Get on it chop chop.

[RealSNR]

Megatron right now:

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Bowser

I'll go 46rec for 593yds and 5TDs for young Skyy in '23.

I mostly agree except I would add a “0” to the end of each of those.

[CasselGotPeedOn]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I mostly agree except I would add a “0” to the end of each of those.

Damn Skyy is gonna be alive in 2230?

[notorious]

Originally Posted by CasselGotPeedOn

Damn Skyy is gonna be alive in 2230?

Legends live forever.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by CasselGotPeedOn

Damn Skyy is gonna be alive in 2230?

Imagine how many Super Bowls we’ll win

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Lol, you could just say you’re incapable of doing basic math.


Here, this is all the numbers you can probably handle.

22 rcp /33tgts 250 total yards 1001yards


That’s all you need to do the basic math. The solution won’t be quite correct, but it gets you in the general area.

What is 250x4?

What is 22x4?

If Moore has the exact rate stats he had a year ago, he needs 88 catches - not 100 - to get to 1000 yards.

If he improves at all, that number falls.

Again, he literally had one game where he played the role it looks like he’ll play in 23, and in that game he caught 5/6 targets for 60+ yards and had multiple key third down conversions against good coverage players.

Averaging 5 catches and 60 yards would get him to 1,000 yards.

There’s no logical reason to act like it’s an insane projection to think Moore could get to the 1k mark or beyond. Other than digging your heels in because you can’t give up no matter what.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

I posted this above, but assume you missed it.

Lmao, as if it's set in stone that Skyy Moore will average 10 ypc and a 66.7% catch%. He's going to play Juju's role and JJSS averaged 12 ypc last year. Skyy Moore is quite a bit faster than JJSS, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Moore could avg more ypc than JJSS. If he gets 12.5 ypc, then he only needs 80 receptions to hit 1000. I'd be willing to bet that he improves his catch percentage as well. He's going to run better routes and will have more insight into where PMII wants him to be on the field.

If he catches 71% of his targets and avgs 12.5 ypc, then he only needs 113 targets. That's only 6.7 targets a game. That's doable.

Damn, no one took stats/probability, ever?

Question: how many targets does Skyy need to break the 1,000yd mark.

Working parameter: Skyy is the replacement for JuJu Smith Schuster, and must operate within that role, i.e., short-to-intermediate zones, between the numbers.

simple data:

250yds/22cth=11.4yds/cth

1001 yds/11.4yds=87.8 catches, so 88 catches

.667y=88, solving for 'y.' Y=131.xxx, so 131 targets needed to reach 88 catches.

That's the lazy, imprecise way to do it. But it does get you in the ballpark. Anyone think there's a realistic chance that Skyy sees 130+ targets? When Toney needs at least 120 targets, and Rice needs, idk, 70? Ditto whichever Ross brother suits up, and James, and Watson . . . Trying to get Skyy 130 targets just doesn't add up.

But let's continue . . .



Now, above you posit the idea that Skyy could average more than 11.4 yards/catch, and that he could average better than 66.7% catch rate. Which sound reasonable in a bubble.



However, let's dive into that a bit.

For data, I'll give a couple three databases to work with. Use whatever ones you like, if these don't please you.

fantasypro advanced WR stats 2022:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

pro-football-reference receiving stats 2022:
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm

pro football database:
https://www.footballdb.com/statistic...ng?sort=recavg


Go ahead and look at the WRs in the NFL that average 70%+ catch rates, AND exceed 1,000 yards. Just for fun. We'll get back to that later.


Now, you said "If he gets 12.5 ypc, then he only needs 80 receptions to hit 1000."

Okay, let's break that down. in 2022, he averaged about 7.4 airyds/target, and about 4 yards YAC/r(eception). Now those two stats are slightly inflated, because he had a 30 yd reception and a 16 airyard target, and just 22 catches/33 targets total, so both of those numbers greatly skewed his final numbers, which is obvious when seeing that he averaged just 7.4 airyards/target. In other words, most of his routes were 7.4 yards or less.

But, let's cross-reference here and look at the WRs that consistently turn in seasons around those two numbers. How about just ONE yard higher and lower to give us a decent spread of 'similar' players?

So, at 8.5 yds/target Deandre Hopkins
8.2 CeeDee Lamb

8.1 A. Thielen

8.0 Brandon Aiyuk . . . you really believe that Skyy is better than these guys?



And what about around 7.4 to 7.0? Hunter Henry, 7.5, D. Smith and Keenan Allen 7.4, J. Chase at 7.0 . . . and Richie James comes in at 6.9. Anyone realistically think that Skyy belongs in that crowbetter than these guys in year 2 of his career?

And let's try to remember that the working parameter is between the numbers and mostly short-to-intermediate routes. So, Skyy isn't going to be running a lot of go-routes or sluggos, which would help boost his average yards/target. He's going to be catching most of his passes between 3 and 9 yards from the LoS. Which is why, even after having a couple targets beyond 15 yards, his air yards/target is still just 7.4.


Which is partly how I got to 10.1 yards/target. Because the first thing you have to do is subtract the outlier/anomalous data points, such as Skyy's 30 yard reception, as well as his lowest yard-catch, which was 1 or something. But that alone skews the results of that 7.4 yards/catch. And then there's his longest 'air yards/target,' which was 16 yards, iirc? That's gotta go as well as the least one, of course.

that drops his yards/catch to under 11.0 yards, and his air yards/target to just under 7.0, and then there's his YAC/r, which also drops after that one big catch/YAC play that went for 30 yards, goes away. Once those outliers are accounted for, his yds/tgt comes in at about 10.1 or 10.2.

And then we cross-reference to see if that holds up at all:

So you think that Skyy can go over 12.4 yards/catch. Okay, let's see what kind of WR operates in that air.

S. Diggs 13.2
Christian Kirk 13.2
Tyler Boyd 13.1
B. Aiyuk 13.0
CeeDee Lamb 12.7
Devonta Smith 12.6
H. Henry 12.4
T. Lockett 12.3
B. Cooks 12.3
Travis Kelce 12.2
J. Chase 12.0
Mark Andrews (TE) 11.6
DK Metkalf 11.6
Keenan Allen 11.4

So, probably not.



And btw, 66.7% catch rate/1000yds is high. It's also inflated by 0.3% (actual percentage is 66.667% for accuracy's sake) which equates to about 3 catches/6 targets, but I'll give you those gratis.


You say Skyy should be able to surpass 71% catch rate? Let's see who lives in that neighborhood.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 72.6%
Travis Kelce at 72.5%
T. Lockett 71.8%
T. Boyd 70.7%
S. Diggs 70.1%
Tyreek Hill 70.0%
D. Smith 69.9%
G. Kittle 69.8%
Justin Jefferson 69.6%
C.D. Lamb 68.6%
B. Aiyuk 68.4%
T. Higgins 67.9%
T. Higbee 66.7%
D. Hopkins 66.7%


And who's below 66.7%? Glad you asked.

How about J. Chase@ 64.9%? Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, Terry McLaurin . . . all under 65% catch rates.


See, here's the thing you don't seem to understand. As targets go up, catch rates tend to go down.

that's just basic probability/statistics. Don't believe me? Let's cross-reference that with actual WRs that exceeded 1,000 yards in 2022, and ther catch%s.

Go ahead and click on that pfr link and click on the catch% column. Scroll down that list until you find your first 1,000 WR (as opposed to TE). That's Chris Godwin @ 73.2%.

EVERY OTHER WR THAT CROSSED OVER 1,000 YARDS HAS A CATCH RATE LOWER THAN 67%.



And let's be clear: Skyy isn't Godwin. Or Amon-Ra, or Lockett, or Stefon Diggs, fcs.





Probability says that Skyy's 66.7% being based off of 22/33 is probably inflated slightly, not the other way around, due to the tiny size of the data sample. The same way Toney's catch rate is totally skewed (please don't be dumb enough to think Toney can exceed 82% for an entire season, lol).

So the idea that he'll have a higher catch rate is not very likely, and in fact it's far more likely that his catch rate will be less than 66.7% by season's end. I tried to shoot right down the middle and gave him a 65% catch rate. Which is still pretty high, but at least more realistic. And when I ran those numbers, he went over 150 targets, at which point I just stopped, because no way Skyy sees 150 targets in 2023.



Like I said, it's a nice idea in a bubble.

[Simply Red]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

What? There's absolutely a chance. Juju almost certainly would have if it weren't for the knee and the concussion. If Toney misses time, that'll be more targets for Skyy, too. I have high hopes for Rice, but he's a rookie.

I wouldn't bank on it, because it's a deep room, and everyone is probably going to get some targets, but it's certainly a reasonable possibility.

Richie James plays for the KC Chiefs.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

What is 250x4?

What is 22x4?

If Moore has the exact rate stats he had a year ago, he needs 88 catches - not 100 - to get to 1000 yards.

If he improves at all, that number falls.

Again, he literally had one game where he played the role it looks like he’ll play in 23, and in that game he caught 5/6 targets for 60+ yards and had multiple key third down conversions against good coverage players.

Averaging 5 catches and 60 yards would get him to 1,000 yards.

There’s no logical reason to act like it’s an insane projection to think Moore could get to the 1k mark or beyond. Other than digging your heels in because you can’t give up no matter what.

Love how he just ignored this then proceeded to further overcomplicate things in the very next post

[CasselGotPeedOn]

Nobody's reading that shit

[RealSNR]

Were you using the same math to prove that it was impossible for Mahomes to be better than Alex Smith in his first year in 2018?

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Damn, no one took stats/probability, ever?

Question: how many targets does Skyy need to break the 1,000yd mark.

Working parameter: Skyy is the replacement for JuJu Smith Schuster, and must operate within that role, i.e., short-to-intermediate zones, between the numbers.

simple data:

250yds/22cth=11.4yds/cth

1001 yds/11.4yds=87.8 catches, so 88 catches

.667y=88, solving for 'y.' Y=131.xxx, so 131 targets needed to reach 88 catches.

That's the lazy, imprecise way to do it. But it does get you in the ballpark. Anyone think there's a realistic chance that Skyy sees 130+ targets? When Toney needs at least 120 targets, and Rice needs, idk, 70? Ditto whichever Ross brother suits up, and James, and Watson . . . Trying to get Skyy 130 targets just doesn't add up.

But let's continue . . .



Now, above you posit the idea that Skyy could average more than 11.4 yards/catch, and that he could average better than 66.7% catch rate. Which sound reasonable in a bubble.



However, let's dive into that a bit.

For data, I'll give a couple three databases to work with. Use whatever ones you like, if these don't please you.

fantasypro advanced WR stats 2022:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

pro-football-reference receiving stats 2022:
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm

pro football database:
https://www.footballdb.com/statistic...ng?sort=recavg


Go ahead and look at the WRs in the NFL that average 70%+ catch rates, AND exceed 1,000 yards. Just for fun. We'll get back to that later.


Now, you said "If he gets 12.5 ypc, then he only needs 80 receptions to hit 1000."

Okay, let's break that down. in 2022, he averaged about 7.4 airyds/target, and about 4 yards YAC/r(eception). Now those two stats are slightly inflated, because he had a 30 yd reception and a 16 airyard target, and just 22 catches/33 targets total, so both of those numbers greatly skewed his final numbers, which is obvious when seeing that he averaged just 7.4 airyards/target. In other words, most of his routes were 7.4 yards or less.

But, let's cross-reference here and look at the WRs that consistently turn in seasons around those two numbers. How about just ONE yard higher and lower to give us a decent spread of 'similar' players?

So, at 8.5 yds/target Deandre Hopkins
8.2 CeeDee Lamb

8.1 A. Thielen

8.0 Brandon Aiyuk . . . you really believe that Skyy is better than these guys?



And what about around 7.4 to 7.0? Hunter Henry, 7.5, D. Smith and Keenan Allen 7.4, J. Chase at 7.0 . . . and Richie James comes in at 6.9. Anyone realistically think that Skyy belongs in that crowbetter than these guys in year 2 of his career?

And let's try to remember that the working parameter is between the numbers and mostly short-to-intermediate routes. So, Skyy isn't going to be running a lot of go-routes or sluggos, which would help boost his average yards/target. He's going to be catching most of his passes between 3 and 9 yards from the LoS. Which is why, even after having a couple targets beyond 15 yards, his air yards/target is still just 7.4.


Which is partly how I got to 10.1 yards/target. Because the first thing you have to do is subtract the outlier/anomalous data points, such as Skyy's 30 yard reception, as well as his lowest yard-catch, which was 1 or something. But that alone skews the results of that 7.4 yards/catch. And then there's his longest 'air yards/target,' which was 16 yards, iirc? That's gotta go as well as the least one, of course.

that drops his yards/catch to under 11.0 yards, and his air yards/target to just under 7.0, and then there's his YAC/r, which also drops after that one big catch/YAC play that went for 30 yards, goes away. Once those outliers are accounted for, his yds/tgt comes in at about 10.1 or 10.2.

And then we cross-reference to see if that holds up at all:

So you think that Skyy can go over 12.4 yards/catch. Okay, let's see what kind of WR operates in that air.

S. Diggs 13.2
Christian Kirk 13.2
Tyler Boyd 13.1
B. Aiyuk 13.0
CeeDee Lamb 12.7
Devonta Smith 12.6
H. Henry 12.4
T. Lockett 12.3
B. Cooks 12.3
Travis Kelce 12.2
J. Chase 12.0
Mark Andrews (TE) 11.6
DK Metkalf 11.6
Keenan Allen 11.4

So, probably not.



And btw, 66.7% catch rate/1000yds is high. It's also inflated by 0.3% (actual percentage is 66.667% for accuracy's sake) which equates to about 3 catches/6 targets, but I'll give you those gratis.


You say Skyy should be able to surpass 71% catch rate? Let's see who lives in that neighborhood.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 72.6%
Travis Kelce at 72.5%
T. Lockett 71.8%
T. Boyd 70.7%
S. Diggs 70.1%
Tyreek Hill 70.0%
D. Smith 69.9%
G. Kittle 69.8%
Justin Jefferson 69.6%
C.D. Lamb 68.6%
B. Aiyuk 68.4%
T. Higgins 67.9%
T. Higbee 66.7%
D. Hopkins 66.7%


And who's below 66.7%? Glad you asked.

How about J. Chase@ 64.9%? Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, Terry McLaurin . . . all under 65% catch rates.


See, here's the thing you don't seem to understand. As targets go up, catch rates tend to go down.

that's just basic probability/statistics. Don't believe me? Let's cross-reference that with actual WRs that exceeded 1,000 yards in 2022, and ther catch%s.

Go ahead and click on that pfr link and click on the catch% column. Scroll down that list until you find your first 1,000 WR (as opposed to TE). That's Chris Godwin @ 73.2%.

EVERY OTHER WR THAT CROSSED OVER 1,000 YARDS HAS A CATCH RATE LOWER THAN 67%.



And let's be clear: Skyy isn't Godwin. Or Amon-Ra, or Lockett, or Stefon Diggs, fcs.





Probability says that Skyy's 66.7% being based off of 22/33 is probably inflated slightly, not the other way around, due to the tiny size of the data sample. The same way Toney's catch rate is totally skewed (please don't be dumb enough to think Toney can exceed 82% for an entire season, lol).

So the idea that he'll have a higher catch rate is not very likely, and in fact it's far more likely that his catch rate will be less than 66.7% by season's end. I tried to shoot right down the middle and gave him a 65% catch rate. Which is still pretty high, but at least more realistic. And when I ran those numbers, he went over 150 targets, at which point I just stopped, because no way Skyy sees 150 targets in 2023.



Like I said, it's a nice idea in a bubble.

You outdid yourself this time, with plenty of nothing to say X 1000.

[staylor26]

A healthy JuJu would've easily had 1,000. He was damn close while dealing with that knee issue.

It's really not that complicated.

[dlphg9]

Yeah I read it, but it's still not even remotely close to proof that Skyy Moore won't get close to 1000 yds. Idk if he's as good as some of those guys because he hasn't gotten a chance. He will get more opportunities and with more opportunities comes more long receptions. You bring up all these other guys (Toney, Rice, Watson, the Ross' for some reason?), but only 2 guys will be ahead of him on the totem poll and none of the others will take any snaps from Moore.

Toney may get more targets, but he may also get hurt.
Rice will get the rookie treatment.
Watson won't get much playing time, unless there are some injuries.
Neither of the Ross' will see the field barring an absolute miracle.

Moore is going to play way more than last year and will be a starter. Either he or Toney will be a 1000 yd guy, unless they both get hurt.