Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

**** you Trump. **** you China.

Throw in the **** you, USDA, and I'll cosign the statement.

[Rain Man]

It seems like driverless cars will completely change Uber's business model soon. They'll eliminate drivers and just buy driverless cars. Will this turn them into profit giant if they keep 100 percent of revenues? Or will it just continue to be a chase for low fares with their competitors?

And if we have driverless cars, do I just send my car out on its own working under uber, in which case the cost to passengers continues to go down, but I have to be above break-even as an owner, so it's just the same story as now but at lower price levels? Not sure how that'll play out.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

It seems like driverless cars will completely change Uber's business model soon. They'll eliminate drivers and just buy driverless cars. Will this turn them into profit giant if they keep 100 percent of revenues? Or will it just continue to be a chase for low fares with their competitors?

And if we have driverless cars, do I just send my car out on its own working under uber, in which case the cost to passengers continues to go down, but I have to be above break-even as an owner, so it's just the same story as now but at lower price levels? Not sure how that'll play out.

I wouldn’t project that any time soon.

I feel like a broken record, but my understanding of the liability rules are that if there is liability to be assessed it goes to the driver. No driver would indicate that it would fall to the manufacturer, because the machine is then responsible for collision avoidance.

Manufacturers aren’t going to play that way.

That’s my admittedly limited understanding of the situation. There has been technology for automated tractors at the very least in the field level for better than a decade and my understanding is liability is what keeps it on the shelf.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I feel like a broken record, but my understanding of the liability rules are that if there is liability to be assessed it goes to the driver. No driver would indicate that it would fall to the manufacturer, because the machine is then responsible for collision avoidance.

I'm not sure on tractors. Do people tractor all day/everyday? There is also scale. If you have 10 tractor drivers you can get rid by automating, your insurance is going to be really costly versus a company with 500k drivers.

I think a key difference is Uber/Lyft already provide collision, liability, 3rd party insurance, under or uninsured motorist coverage to it's human drivers. It's really just a matter of the math working out via human labor costs vs autonomy costs and any delta in insurance payments. Uber is trying to create their own autonomy platform. They could buy a ford install it and then they'd be responsible. I don't think that's how it'll work but there will be several models. I also think it's a long way off outside of niche things.

Lyft has a few Google/Waymo cars out on the road in Phoenix now

[RunKC]

Holy shit what a comeback! The markets somehow finished in the green today.

Never thought that would happen.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Munson

There will probably be some initial excitement, but it's going to tank just like Lyft.

Hope so. Otherwise rates go up.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

I'm not sure on tractors. Do people tractor all day/everyday? There is also scale. If you have 10 tractor drivers you can get rid by automating, your insurance is going to be really costly versus a company with 500k drivers.

I think a key difference is Uber/Lyft already provide collision, liability, 3rd party insurance, under or uninsured motorist coverage to it's human drivers. It's really just a matter of the math working out via human labor costs vs autonomy costs and any delta in insurance payments. Uber is trying to create their own autonomy platform. They could buy a ford install it and then they'd be responsible. I don't think that's how it'll work but there will be several models. I also think it's a long way off outside of niche things.

Lyft has a few Google/Waymo cars out on the road in Phoenix now

Yeah. A lot of tractors run a lot of hours. It is very much a timing and labor issue.

It's not an insurance problem, we don't carry any collision insurance on tractors at the moment. It's a liability problem, which could be insured against.

Think about it this way. Somebody convinces a court that there is a manufacturer default that caused the wreck. Insurance company says, welp, I'm out. Then it isn't an accident, they're going after the evil corporate empire, and the'll try to find a class action. Because that's what lawyers do.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Yeah. A lot of tractors run a lot of hours. It is very much a timing and labor issue.

It's not an insurance problem, we don't carry any collision insurance on tractors at the moment. It's a liability problem, which could be insured against.

Think about it this way. Somebody convinces a court that there is a manufacturer default that caused the wreck. Insurance company says, welp, I'm out. Then it isn't an accident, they're going after the evil corporate empire, and the'll try to find a class action. Because that's what lawyers do.

In the end I think this will need some regulation. I imagine drones will be the same. The car companies have risked lives before to save money on recalls when they knew there was an issue.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.6e1f6b2f20ee

If it improves productivity and corporate profits, I feel confident the gov will make it work. I guess we'll see. Wouldn't invest in Uber rn though. I think Uber freight is interesting but it's a tiny part of revenue and Amazon is doing it too.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

In the end I think this will need some regulation. I imagine drones will be the same. The car companies have risked lives before to save money on recalls when they knew there was an issue.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.6e1f6b2f20ee

If it improves productivity and corporate profits, I feel confident the gov will make it work. I guess we'll see. Wouldn't invest in Uber rn though. I think Uber freight is interesting but it's a tiny part of revenue and Amazon is doing it too.

Yeah I agree. Nobody wants autonomous vehicles more than this guy. You have no idea the extent to which I want out of the cab.

I just don’t see it. Some kid runs out in front of a car and suddenly the mom wants $100M. You just can’t skate on that kind of risk IMO.

[Munson]

This has been a very ass rapey day so far.

Down about 700 points at the moment.

[Amnorix]

"Buying opportunity"!!

[Buehler445]

Huh. The grains are actually up today.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Huh. The grains are actually up today.

Canned goods, farms, and ammo. That's where the smart money is today.

[RunKC]

Worst trading day of the year. Is this just the beginning? Feels like it’s going to get worse

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Worst trading day of the year. Is this just the beginning? Feels like it’s goifn to get qorse

Nobody knows other than ppl in our or Chinas admin. Double check your list of stocks to grab in any downturn or even prep for selling puts to find some good entry points, I guess.

Somebody posted they wished they'd bought X and Y during the last downturn. Anybody with any ideas they've been waiting on?

I'll start, CME, unfortunately it's very expensive and rarely comes down. It's a monopoly of sorts and Congress looked into it a decade ago but declined to do anything. It pays a modest dividend. Volatility from stock market drops isn't all that bad for them as it bouys their business of selling futures, etc.