2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Canofbier

Sheesh - I knew our payroll would be higher this year, but I didn't realize it would put us as the second-highest in our division.

so we've damn near tripled our payroll in 3 years....

[alnorth]

The Ned Yost/Andy McCullough pants saga continues

Ned Yost, flip flopper: "I could really care less about your pants."

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) March 26, 2014

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

The Ned Yost/Andy McCullough pants saga continues

Ned Yost, flip flopper: "I could really care less about your pants."

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) March 26, 2014

Except Ned is NOT flip-flopping. Grammar indicates Yost DOES care about Andy's pants.

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by alnorth

The media's opening day payroll estimates are out:

1. LA Dodgers $235,295,219
2. NY Yankees $203,812,506
3. Philadelphia Phillies $180,052,723
4. Boston Red Sox $162,817,411
5. Detroit Tigers $162,228,527
6. LA Angels $155,692,000
7. San Francisco Giants $154,185,878
8. Texas Rangers $136,036,172
9. Washington Nationals $134,704,437
10. Toronto Blue Jays $132,628,700
11. Arizona Diamondbacks $112,688,666
12. Cincinnati Reds $112,390,772
13. St. Louis Cardinals $111,020,360
14. Atlanta Braves $110,897,341
15. Baltimore Orioles $107,406,623
16. Milwaukee Brewers $103,844,806
17. Colorado Rockies $95,832,071
18. Seattle Mariners $92,081,943
19. Kansas City Royals $92,034,345
20. Chicago White Sox $91,159,254
21. San Diego Padres $90,094,196
22. NY Mets $89,051,758
23. Chicago Cubs $89,007,857
24. Minnesota Twins $85,776,500
25. Oakland A's $83,401,400
26. Cleveland Indians $82,534,800
27. Pittsburgh Pirates $78,111,667
28. Tampa Bay Rays $77,062,891
29. Miami Marlins $47,565,400
30. Houston Astros $44,544,174

The Astros are whining about their estimate, mentioning that they have to send about $5MM to another team for example, which is fair but those kinds of things have never been included in these rankings.

Wow, so we're right smack in the middle as far as payroll goes. Now it's all a matter of how well that money was spent.

[Gonzo]

Article in the Omaha paper today:

http://m.omaha.com/article/20140325/...late=mobileart



Kansas City may not have added an impact bat to the lineup or a power arm to the pitching rotation.
But the Royals can still play some defense. Really, really good defense.
Whether that's enough to contend for an American League Central title or a wild card spot remains to be seen over a 162-game schedule, but — whether by strategy or good fortune — in assembling a team aiming for its first postseason berth since 1985, the Royals have perhaps baseball's best defensive unit.
Left fielder Alex Gordon, catcher Salvador Perez and first baseman Eric Hosmer won Gold Gloves last year for their fielding excellence, representing that they are the best at their position in the American League in an award sponsored by Rawlings, a glove company. Another glove company, Wilson, named outfielder Lorenzo Cain the Royals' defensive player of the year.
So yes, the Royals truly can pick it.
The team's major offseason acquisitions — offensive table-setters Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante — are both solid to above average defensively. The club lost starting pitcher Ervin Santana to free agency and signed Jason Vargas — but the finesse pitcher's overall effectiveness could benefit from the Royals' ability to go get it behind him.
A newer statistic called ultimate zone rating sheds light on the Royals' defensive excellence. The formula for determining the rating is complicated. But according to fangraphs.com, it “puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess.”
Last year Alcides Escobar led all American League shortstops with a UZR of 10.9 (10.9 runs saved over the course of a season).
Many believe Mike Moustakas living up to his offensive potential will be the missing link for the Royals, but his glove is already where it needs to be — he was fourth among AL third basemen with a 10.0 UZR.
Winning Gold Gloves isn't necessarily about statistics. Hosmer was only sixth in the AL with a UZR of 2.5.
Cain was second among American League outfielders and fifth overall among outfielders with a UZR of 20.0. Gordon was 10th among AL outfielders and 19th overall at 8.6. Jarrod Dyson, among outfielders who played a minimum of 500 innings, ranked 10th in the AL and 18th overall at 10.4.
As for the newcomers: Aoki, playing with Milwaukee last season, was 29th among outfielders at 3.2, while Infante was fourth among AL second basemen at 2.4. (Former Kansas City starter Chris Getz didn't play enough innings to qualify, but was slightly better at 3.0).
Perhaps the best defensive statistic for catchers is defensive runs saved above average. Perez led the AL and was fourth best overall at 11.
Want to try to grasp just why the Omaha Storm Chasers' 2011 outfield seemed impenetrable? Consider that the outfielders were Cain, Dyson and David Lough — who, of those playing a minimum 500 innings, was fourth among AL outfielders and ninth overall with a UZR of 10.4.
With so many terrific defensive outfielders on hand, Lough was traded to Baltimore in the offseason. And it's probably not surprising he wound up there — the Orioles also like their defense, with three Gold Glove winners (third baseman Manny Machado, shortstop J.J. Hardy and outfielder Adam Jones).
Baltimore and Kansas City shared 2013 AL Defensive Team of the Year, an award handed out by Wilson. Kansas City ranked just eighth in fielding percentage, despite posting a franchise-record .986 mark. Baltimore set a major league record with just 54 errors while compiling a fielding percentage of .991.
A playoff team in 2012, Baltimore went 85-77 in 2013 and fell six games short of repeating.
So how much can defense determine a team's playoff fate? It's still pretty hard to measure. But if Kansas City makes the postseason in 2014, it will be a major reason why.

[Demonpenz]

Hosmer won the gold glove but from my eye test could have done way better.

[KCUnited]

Paul Bessire's Predictalator (cdcox style of simulator) has KC's win total at 79 this year, mainly due the Vargas, Gutherie, Chen middle of the rotation.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Paul Bessire's Predictalator (cdcox style of simulator) has KC's win total at 79 this year, mainly due the Vargas, Gutherie, Chen middle of the rotation.

I said 80 but I think it'll be our lack of power again. We can't win in the AL without at least some power, I'm not sure what the historical data is but I'd bet teams that hit the fewest HR in the AL tend to not do very well in the standings. We really need Butler and Moose to combine for ~50 HR which they are more than capable of doing (they did in 2012) and for Hosmer to take that next step into the 20s. Alex has a lot more power than he's shown lately so hopefully he stays healthy and also gets to the 20 range.

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Paul Bessire's Predictalator (cdcox style of simulator) has KC's win total at 79 this year, mainly due the Vargas, Gutherie, Chen middle of the rotation.

Funny that he's not including Ventura in his prediction.

[CaliforniaChief]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I said 80 but I think it'll be our lack of power again. We can't win in the AL without at least some power, I'm not sure what the historical data is but I'd bet teams that hit the fewest HR in the AL tend to not do very well in the standings. We really need Butler and Moose to combine for ~50 HR which they are more than capable of doing (they did in 2012) and for Hosmer to take that next step into the 20s. Alex has a lot more power than he's shown lately so hopefully he stays healthy and also gets to the 20 range.

I agree. I feel like at least one of those 4 guys has to top 30 HR's this season.

Also, we'll need a midseason contribution from either Duffy or Zimmer to add to the rotation.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by Three7s

Funny that he's not including Ventura in his prediction.

He simulated the season with the expected starting rotation, Ventura included.

[WhawhaWhat]

Forbes values the Royals as next to last in the league at $490 million. Yankees are the highest at $2.5 billion. Only the Marlins had lower revenues in 2013.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Paul Bessire's Predictalator (cdcox style of simulator) has KC's win total at 79 this year, mainly due the Vargas, Gutherie, Chen middle of the rotation.

The problem with projections is that they don't work very well with young teams. They'll do the best they can with them, if you take a AAA ERA or a AAA OPS, we can convert those to MLB-level numbers, and they try to project improvement as a young player ages, but the variance is enormous.

If you take every rookie and 2nd-year player in baseball, and compare their projected 2014 season numbers with the actual combined total 2014 numbers of all those players, it may end up being very close, but the projections for any particular individual young player are going to be way off for many if not most of those players. Young players tend to crush or fail their projections, and those projections adjust until they get old enough to know what to expect.

Once you get a track record and you are looking at 29-year old players the projections get better. There are still some surprises and some variance, but not nearly as much. Those projections are better suited for older teams like the Yankees.

The scouts think Moustakas has fixed his swing and is ready to roll, but the projections have no way of quantifying that. He played decently in 2012 and looked like dogcrap in 2013, so they take something in between those 2 years and project a slight age-based improvement on that. The projections have no clue what to do with a Ventura who the scouts all say has really put it together and will be a ROTY candidate, the projections don't have anything to back that up, and just take his minor league numbers and assume he'll be a typical SP rookie with that minor league pedigree.

If you hard-coded "someone will hit 30 HR, and Ventura will be great" into the system, the results will change quite a bit.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

The problem with projections is that they don't work very well with young teams. They'll do the best they can with them, if you take a AAA ERA or a AAA OPS, we can convert those to MLB-level numbers, and they try to project improvement as a young player ages, but the variance is enormous.

If you take every rookie and 2nd-year player in baseball, and compare their projected 2014 season numbers with the actual combined total 2014 numbers of all those players, it may end up being very close, but the projections for any particular individual young player are going to be way off for many if not most of those players. Young players tend to crush or fail their projections, and those projections adjust until they get old enough to know what to expect.

Once you get a track record and you are looking at 29-year old players the projections get better. There are still some surprises and some variance, but not nearly as much. Those projections are better suited for older teams like the Yankees.

The scouts think Moustakas has fixed his swing and is ready to roll, but the projections have no way of quantifying that. He played decently in 2012 and looked like dogcrap in 2013, so they take something in between those 2 years and project a slight age-based improvement on that. The projections have no clue what to do with a Ventura who the scouts all say has really put it together and will be a ROTY candidate, the projections don't have anything to back that up, and just take his minor league numbers and assume he'll be a typical SP rookie with that minor league pedigree.

If you hard-coded "someone will hit 30 HR, and Ventura will be great" into the system, the results will change quite a bit.

Projections have a hard time with:

1) Young players (as you pointed out and I and others have before. For example,even a premium star like Mike Trout, the projections keep saying is going to hit right around .300 even though he has two .320+ seasons so far)

2) Players who consistently outperform their peripheral stats. Since becoming an Oriole in 2007, Guthrie has outperformed his FIP by somewhere between 0.75 and 0.25. All the projections just drop him in at 4.75-5.00 ERA, but odds are good he outperforms that significantly.

3) Defense. Projection systems typically look at a great defensive team/performance as a fluke.

Considering the Royals are stacked with young player, rely heavily on defense and run prevention, and have two starting rotation members who consistently outperform peripherals (Guthrie and Chen), I just don't place much stock in what any projection system has to say about the team as a whole.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

2) Players who consistently outperform their peripheral stats. Since becoming an Oriole in 2007, Guthrie has outperformed his FIP by somewhere between 0.75 and 0.25. All the projections just drop him in at 4.75-5.00 ERA, but odds are good he outperforms that significantly.

Someone should probably study this, I think this is one thing the SABR folks can probably figure out. The question: "how many years do you need to outperform FIP until we can reasonably believe they will continue to outperform?" One or two years is a fluke. What about 5+ years? For all we know, that could also be a very unlikely fluke, we were lucky, and we're just wrong about 2014.

They should be able to perform some kind of cohort analysis where you gather players in MLB history that have outperformed for 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, all the way through 6 and 7 years, and figure out what they did the following year. Players who outperformed for 1 year would be expected to generally crash back to earth, but what about players who keep doing it? (we don't need to study players who underperform, they just wind up demoted and out of baseball)