Gasoline over $4 coming to a pump near you because this thread is ass

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Donger

No.

I don't believe you.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by KC native

I don't believe you.

I don't work in the industry, or have any fiscal interest or power in it. So, again, no. I had nothing to do with it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Sure thing. I wasn't claiming it had anything to do with school districts.

Now, do you dispute that there are very good and valid reasons for gas stations within a few miles of each to have different prices?

Generally speaking, yes. A .12 difference? .02 or .03 cents no, .12 yeah.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Generally speaking, yes. A .12 difference? .02 or .03 cents no, .12 yeah.

Well, all you have to do is look at the Gas Buddy maps. You'll see plenty of deltas even greater than $0.12 within a few miles of each other. Like I've said, there's a station down the street that is always $0.30 higher than two a few miles down the road.

[KC native]

Originally Posted by Donger

I don't work in the industry, or have any fiscal interest or power in it. So, again, no. I had nothing to do with it.

I think you're just covering up your identity on here so no one knows that you're really the CEO of Exxon Mobil.

[Donger]

Another crazy day. Crude down 7.52% at $45.50

[BigChiefFan]

Layoffs continue to rise, as oil tanks.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Price drop in my area of .07 cents today.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

Layoffs continue to rise, as oil tanks.

Layoffs where?

[BigChiefFan]

[QUOTE=WilliamTheIrish;11698537]Layoffs where?[/ Since crude prices began tumbling last year, energy companies have announced plans to lay off more than 100,000 workers around the world. At least 91,000 layoffs have already materialized, with the majority coming in oil-field-services and drilling companies, according to research by Graves & Co., a Houston consulting firm.

[WilliamTheIrish]

How many in the U.S?

[BigChiefFan]

But I Don’t Want to Cut Production!

Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi, said this past December that OPEC will not cut production, even if oil reaches $20 per barrel. It seems clear that OPEC, or at least most OPEC nations, are prepared to ride it out. However, at least one OPEC member, Venezuela, a country which derives 95% of its export revenue from oil, would prefer a production reduction sooner than later. However, that’s apparently not going to happen. What would result if oil prices remain low for an extended period? Companies which were profitable at $100, $80, $60, etc., would no longer be able to turn a profit. This would lead to massive layoffs in the oil industry, up to 250,000 workers, half of which would be in Texas. In addition, many regional banks in the affected areas would suffer due to a rise in loan defaults. Low oil prices would also have a negative impact on other industries such as hotels, housing, restaurants, etc. In short, there would be a ripple effect which would outweigh the benefits realized from lower gasoline prices. What will the oil industry look like after the fact?

[BigChiefFan]

More job cuts announced
NYSE3:58 PM EDT ConocoPhillips says it's cutting 10 percent of jobs AP 8 mins ago ConocoPhillips to cut global workforce by 10%, including more than 500 jobs in Houston MarketWatch q 25 mins ago More. NEW YORK (AP) -- Energy company ConocoPhillips says it is cutting around 1,810 jobs, or 10 percent of its workforce, following a plunge that took oil prices to their lowest levels in years. The biggest proportion of the job cuts will be in North America, the company said Tuesday. ConocoPhillips plans to eliminate more than 500 jobs in Houston, where it is based. In a news release, ConocoPhillips said it's making the cuts because the energy industry is in a "dramatic downturn." ConocoPhillips has already cut 1,000 jobs this year and had 18,100 employees on June 30. Oil prices have plunged because of a supply glut that built up as production increased and growth in the global economy was slower than expected. The health of China's economy, the second-largest in the world, is a dominant concern. In response to falling oil prices almost all energy companies have either cut spending on exploration or cut jobs, often both, and many have seen big drops in their stock prices. ConocoPhillips said in July that it lost $179 million in the second quarter because of the drop in oil prices. It said it was preparing for a period of lower and more volatile prices and also pared its spending forecasts. The company said Tuesday it is reducing spending and paring back deep water exploration work, but job cuts were also needed to make it stronger and more competitive. ConocoPhillips stock declined $1.64, or 3.3 percent, to $47.51 in afternoon trading as the markets slumped. The company's shares have fallen 42 percent over the last year and are trading at their lowest prices in almost five years. U.S. oil is trading around six-year lows. After a big three-day rebound, the price of U.S. oil fell 8 percent on Tuesday to close at $45.41 on weak manufacturing data from China.

Scared fellow

[WilliamTheIrish]

Welp, better them than me.

[BigChiefFan]

Schlumberger cuts another 11,000 jobs in wake of oil crash

Posted on April 16, 2015 | By Collin Eaton
HOUSTON – Oil field services firm Schlumberger announced Thursday it plans to ax another 11,000 workers, kicking off what could be a second major wave of layoffs across the oil industry.


The move will bring Schlumberger’s layoffs up to 20,000 employees, roughly 15 percent of its workforce, since it began paring back its payroll earlier this year to cope with low oil prices. The nine-month oil slump has cost the energy industry more than 120,000 jobs so far, according to oil field staffing firm Swift Worldwide Resources.

Oil equipment companies have been forced to fine-tune their workforce as they promise oil companies up to 20 percent in price reductions for rental tools, equipment and other services, said James Wicklund, an analyst at Credit Suisse.

Wicklund said it’s likely another wave of layoffs will sweep through the service industry after this year’s first in recent months, when major players announced more than 40,000 workers would be tossed from the oil-tool suppliers. It’s even possible a third wave will take place in the third quarter, albeit smaller than the first two.

Schlumberger’s workforce peaked in the third quarter of 2014 with 126,000 employees. Spokesman Joao Felix said the reductions are in progress and should be completed in the second quarter.

Schlumberger, based in Houston, Paris and the Hague, said it took a $390 million charge in the first quarter related to the job cuts and a company leave-of-absence program. It blamed the “severe fall” in North American oil field activity as U.S. producers parked hundreds of drilling rigs and cut billions of dollars in spending.

The firm, which is the world’s biggest oil field services provider, said its first-quarter revenues fell to $10.2 billion, down 9 percent from the same January-March period last year. The figure was off by 19 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2014, a sign that the oil crunch hit sales harder in the new year.