Broncos news megathread

[ROYC75]

Discussion: All things Broncos.

[Mile High Mania]

TEX... what’s up?

[KranzDictum]

Originally Posted by jjchieffan

When are you going to wake up and realize that those Superfarce games were a sham. Cleveland would have had 2 Superfarce appearances had Manning signed there. The league gifted those Superbowls to Manning. It's so obvious. The first game, it was the playoffs that were rigged. They weren't fixing the Superbowl. Then Manning and the Donks embarrassed themselves and proved that they didn't belong there. So, when it became obvious that Manning was done, the league made sure to fix the whole thing to send him out on top in Michael Jordan fashion. They knew good and well that you dumbass Donk fans would swallow their lives e of bullshit hook, line, and sinker. Enjoy your delusion.

Bitter tears

[KranzDictum]

Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan

I love these remember when posts....obviously nothing to look forward to with the clown show that Denver has now

The real clown show was choking in the Wildcard to the great Marcus Mariotta up by 18. That was funny.

[KranzDictum]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

I have said plenty of times that I prefer Darnold, Mayfield, and Rosen over Allen. After drafting Paxton Lynch, I'm really not comfortable waiting on another project to develop.

I don't want a QB at 5 or higher.

They need to go BPA and after trading for Velheer to play RT they can do so. If Chubb falls they better take him. I would be happy with Nelson too, the OL would be dominant then. I think the Browns lock up Barkley, he would solve a lot of issues with their O but if he is there take him. I am glad drafting a tackle high is pretty much off the board now. If they took McG from ND then they would have one tackle pissed about having to play RT. I wouldn't mind the best CB too but 5 is a little high for that.

Hoping that 3 QB's go off the board and Chubb is there at 5. I would also be happy with a trade down and landing some sort of combo like Davenport and Hernandez, or just good Defender and good OL help.

If they want to add a 4th QB they can move back up to get him into the later 1st, a guy like Mike White. Just add an instant starter at the 5th pick.

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by Quesadilla Joe

Football Outsiders' "QBASE" projection system loves them some Baker Mayfield...


Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Sooners

Spoiler!

Projecting Mayfield
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 1480 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 29.3%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 21.8%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 20.7%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 28.2%

Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.

One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating.

On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.)

As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.

Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb.

Josh Allen

Spoiler!

Projecting Allen
Mean Projection in Years 3-5: -83 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 62.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 20.7%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 11.5%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 5.2%

QBASE loathes Josh Allen (no surprise, his stats are garbage)


http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/stor...back-prospects


Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech (47)

Spoiler!

Mean Projection in Years 3-5: 656 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 45.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 27.0%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 17.9%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 9.4%

Mahomes has the highest QBASE projection in the class of 2017. He led all college quarterbacks last year in Expected Points Added on passing plays. He's only 21 years old, so he's got room to grow, but he also was a three-year starter at Texas Tech, so he has experience. And he put up huge numbers despite the fact that none of his receivers or offensive linemen are likely to be drafted either this year or in 2018.

Nonetheless, Mahomes' projection sets off alarm bells -- or more specifically, very loud Air Raid sirens. Every single prospect from an Air Raid offense has underperformed his QBASE projection in the NFL, although obviously you can't shut the book on Jared Goff after just one season. Playing in the Air Raid doesn't mean Mahomes' skills can't translate to the NFL, but it seems clear at this point that the scheme juices passing stats in a way that leads to QBASE overestimating these prospects. Any team that wants to draft Mahomes probably needs to discount his college performance and be very sure that his skills fit its offensive scheme.

Mahomes' QBASE is actually slightly higher than Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar Jacksons score, but they say Air Raid QB's seem to have inflated scores.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/in...017/qbase-2017



Top 10 in QBASE since 1997

Spoiler!

Patrick "better than Darnold, Rosen and Allen" Mahomes.

Mayfield will be exposed after playing with elite talent at OU.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by New World Order

Patrick "better than Darnold, Rosen and Allen" Mahomes.

Mayfield will be exposed after playing with elite talent at OU.

.

It's important not to overestimate the importance of a small difference in the QBASE projections. Most of this year's top quarterbacks are grouped together in the middle of the scale. It's a bit of a surprise that Sam Darnold came out with a lower QBASE rating than some of the other top prospects -- Josh Rosen, for example. But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/stor...back-prospects

[Mile High Mania]

TEX ... such disappoint. You were prancing around with great confidence yesterday. Today, you post and don't even address the ownage.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

TEX... what’s up?

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Also...QBASE Good lord. Another ****ing useless metric.

[RunKC]

There’s no reason be worried about the Broncos until they prove they can beat us. It’s been 3 years.

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by KranzDictum

I don't want a QB at 5 or higher.

They need to go BPA and after trading for Velheer to play RT they can do so. If Chubb falls they better take him. I would be happy with Nelson too, the OL would be dominant then. I think the Browns lock up Barkley, he would solve a lot of issues with their O but if he is there take him. I am glad drafting a tackle high is pretty much off the board now. If they took McG from ND then they would have one tackle pissed about having to play RT. I wouldn't mind the best CB too but 5 is a little high for that.

Hoping that 3 QB's go off the board and Chubb is there at 5. I would also be happy with a trade down and landing some sort of combo like Davenport and Hernandez, or just good Defender and good OL help.

If they want to add a 4th QB they can move back up to get him into the later 1st, a guy like Mike White. Just add an instant starter at the 5th pick.

A lot depends on what the NYGs do at 2. That said, they will either go BPA or trade down. I think they go Barkley at 2 as he will immediately provide instant offense. So Darnold, then Barkley, then Rosen to NYJs. Cleveland probably takes Chubb at 4 leaving the Broncos Nelson at 5. Unless the Broncos are offered stupid compensation for the #5 pick (it’s possible with Allen still available) they will take Nelson as he’s the only player left that the Broncos have rated as one of their top 3 players of entire draft (other two being Barkley and Chubb).

[Sassy Squatch]

He'd sure fix your RG spot. Too bad you'd have to waste #5 overall on a G but that's the price you pay when your drafting has been so bad on the OL.

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

He'd sure fix your RG spot. Too bad you'd have to waste #5 overall on a G but that's the price you pay when your drafting has been so bad on the OL.

Nelson hasn’t taken a single snap in the NFL and he’s already better than Fisher

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by KranzDictum

I don't want a QB at 5 or higher.

I'd be happy with Chubb at 5 if Allen is the only QB sitting there. I'm not so sure about Nelson because we'd be shuffling our OL again.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

TEX ... such disappoint. You were prancing around with great confidence yesterday. Today, you post and don't even address the ownage.

What the **** are u talking about Tool? Im still very confident that you're nothing but a chicken shit poser who pusses out of bets.