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#196 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Oct 2007
Casino cash: $479040
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BWillie, top 3 dumbass on the board, defending a dumbass coach.
Shocking! |
Posts: 50,398
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#197 | |
MVP
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Jabip
Casino cash: $4603807
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Posts: 11,057
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#198 |
GDT white noise poster
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Chonson County
Casino cash: $3788230
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We're going to make orphans of their children
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Posts: 5,409
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#199 |
Andy Reid Supporter
Join Date: Apr 2012
Casino cash: $959611
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One of the few teams I’m worried about. Herbert is legit and Bosa/Mack look like an elite pass rushing duo.
Brown Jr needs to earn his money in this one
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Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Jared Wiley |
Posts: 47,264
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#200 | |
George Brett shit his pants
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: At the Bellagio
Casino cash: $1131241
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Quote:
Imagine I had QQ and got it all in preflop vs AK. I'm a very slight favorite. Over the course of 20 hands I could run bad. I could lose 16 out of 20. If I change my future strategy due to statistical nuance, I would be making a bad decision. A feel based decison not sound in logic. Furthermore, aggressive play calling on 4th down and in general benefits teams who perform well offensively...and also benefit when playing another very efficient team. If you are playing the Bears or something, you can probably dial it down. These things can all be accounted for in a win probability analysis.
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Posts: 47,939
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#201 |
MVP
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: Texas
Casino cash: $1440400
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Derwin James is awesome as well. Chargers roster is pretty dang loaded. I hope the Chiefs will bring a very sharp game to the table.
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Posts: 17,297
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#202 |
George Brett shit his pants
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: At the Bellagio
Casino cash: $1131241
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The majority of the population really really struggles with this as well. They think because something happened, it will happen that way again. That is not always the case, and when we have a plethora of historical information we can determine the best decision to make. The margins may be slim. The expected win probability for one decison vs the other may be small. For example, you may be ****ed either way. If you punt in tbe 4th quarter, you may have a 10% chance to win the game but you have a greater chance to not lose by as much. But if you go for it you may have a 13% chance to win the game but a greater chance to lose by a large amount. The goal is to win the game.
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Posts: 47,939
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#203 |
MVP
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Lawrence, KS
Casino cash: $1830400
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Mahomes isn't about to let Justin Sherbet derail Operation Scorched Earth in his own house.
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Posts: 15,586
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#204 |
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2019
Casino cash: $320400
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Its gonna be a bloody claw hammer fight Thursday
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Posts: 2,960
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#205 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Aug 2005
Casino cash: $7327995
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Posts: 43,200
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#206 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Aug 2005
Casino cash: $7327995
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Quote:
![]() I was thinking Chiefs by 10 points-- but this might end up being another blowout game. Our defense is much faster and our Oline will neutralize their pass rush. Chargers will be knocked back to 2nd place and will stay there the rest of the year. |
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Posts: 43,200
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#207 |
Choco Favre
Join Date: Jul 2012
Casino cash: $1364765
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We are not losing our home opener.
Ain't no way. |
Posts: 30,055
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#208 |
George Brett shit his pants
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: At the Bellagio
Casino cash: $1131241
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If you want to win, you should then focus on decision trees and urge the coach to pick the one that yields the highest win probability. Even if it makes you scared.
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Posts: 47,939
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#209 |
I Like The Kansas City Chiefs
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Shawnee, KS
Casino cash: $1924400
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Do you like the Chiefs?
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My 2024 Adopt a Chief: Leo Chenal Holy Hat! |
Posts: 26,800
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#210 |
**** you, you cretin.
Join Date: Jan 2012
Casino cash: $988026
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Attendance Chief record 9-9 |
Posts: 29,786
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