QB Impressions

[Direckshun]

First glances at several QBs we're going to give a shit about over the next four months. Feel free to set me straight.

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
6'4", 230 lbs
26-9 TD-INT, 59%, 2925 passing yards

I get a Cutlerian vibe from this guy. Seems to be built like a franchise QB. Powerful arm, some beautiful passes, perfect bodytype. But he is lacking an "it" factor, is he not? He's not a world-beating, overcome-the-odds, particularly spiriting QB. Looks like he could have an okay career in the NFL in which he wins nothing of consequence.

Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
6'3", 220 lbs
30-6 TD-INT, 69%, 3748 passing yards

Well if there was one Andy Reid QB in this entire draft, it's Trubisky, isn't it? Super accurate, doesn't take too many risks with the ball, is very mentally tough and very athletic. He's a slam dunk for the Chiefs to trade up for, if he lasts to the 20s, but in a QB-starved NFL with at least 6 new head coaches looking for their QB, there's no chance he lasts to us.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Trade picks to move to the top of the 2nd and take the best QB then. I'd prefer to draft BPA in the first and Mahomes in the 2nd if he's there.

Why?

If you're going to take a QB at the top of the 2nd, just take him at the back of the 1st instead when you'll get a 5th year of team control.

That 5th year option could be a $20 million asset if the QB hits. There's nobody in organized sports who's pay is more overrvalued by virtue of his position only than the quarterback on an NFL team. If you're going to burn picks to move up in the 2nd to grab a QB, you'd be far better served to just take said QB at 27, especially if you know you'll have to sit that guy for 1 or even 2 years.

Take a QB in the second round, sit him for 2 years, get a rocky 2019 with him as a starter and then what happens if he plays well in 2020? You're looking at a Foles situation where you can't tell if you have fools gold and really want to extend the guy. Meanwhile, if you took him in the 1st, you'd get 2021 as a 5th year option, you can pick it up and then either use that as leverage to negotiate a better extension or just provide more insurance to make sure you have what you think you have.

Ask the Raiders if they wish they'd have traded into the back of the 1st to take Carr - they'll tell you hindsight says they should've done it in a heartbeat. Now they're looking at Carr being a UFA in 2018 and they'll either get to spend a shitload this offseason to keep him or have to franchise him a year sooner.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Trade picks to move to the top of the 2nd and take the best QB then. I'd prefer to draft BPA in the first and Mahomes in the 2nd if he's there.

Or you could just avoid reaching and losing out on other good players/building a great all around team that will consistently win.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Why?

If you're going to take a QB at the top of the 2nd, just take him at the back of the 1st instead when you'll get a 5th year of team control.

That 5th year option could be a $20 million asset if the QB hits. There's nobody in organized sports who's pay is more overrvalued by virtue of his position only than the quarterback on an NFL team. If you're going to burn picks to move up in the 2nd to grab a QB, you'd be far better served to just take said QB at 27, especially if you know you'll have to sit that guy for 1 or even 2 years.

Take a QB in the second round, sit him for 2 years, get a rocky 2019 with him as a starter and then what happens if he plays well in 2020? You're looking at a Foles situation where you can't tell if you have fools gold and really want to extend the guy. Meanwhile, if you took him in the 1st, you'd get 2021 as a 5th year option, you can pick it up and then either use that as leverage to negotiate a better extension or just provide more insurance to make sure you have what you think you have.

Ask the Raiders if they wish they'd have traded into the back of the 1st to take Carr - they'll tell you hindsight says they should've done it in a heartbeat. Now they're looking at Carr being a UFA in 2018 and they'll either get to spend a shitload this offseason to keep him or have to franchise him a year sooner.

I don't think the Raiders care too much. He's gonna get paid regardless and would of been paid before the option year kicked in.

[Dante84]

Not sure if it's been covered, but despite how fun Mahomes' gunslinger-ness is to watch in college, his footwork is god ****ing awful. Throws standing either straight up or off his back foot often. On his deep balls, he has an awkward side-arm whip thing, most likely because he is forcing it from a shitty stance. Because of this, some of the balls are floaters. I think he will get picked often.

Specifically referring to the Oklahoma '16 game tape

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

I don't think the Raiders care too much. He's gonna get paid regardless and would of been paid before the option year kicked in.

You don't think the Raiders would rather have that 5th year option and the extra $15-20 million in cap space that comes from it? Because that cap would then roll over indefinitely. The money they save there could go to Mack or Cooper.

I mean sure, they'd take him in the 2nd over not having him at all, but the idea that they just don't care about the massive cap savings they could've had if they'd have drafted him in the 1st is silly.

The 5th year option is an often overlooked and MASSIVE potential advantage for a football team.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You don't think the Raiders would rather have that 5th year option and the extra $15-20 million in cap space that comes from it? Because that cap would then roll over indefinitely. The money they save there could go to Mack or Cooper.

I mean sure, they'd take him in the 2nd over not having him at all, but the idea that they just don't care about the massive cap savings they could've had if they'd have drafted him in the 1st is silly.

The 5th year option is an often overlooked and MASSIVE potential advantage for a football team.

No.

The Raiders were a ****ing dumpster fire organization and needed all their draft picks.

Cap space is a thing that teams are getting more and more of, at a rate faster than they would like. That's before discussing that waiting another year just means Carr's value could be a shit load more because the Packers could lock up Arod at a new enhanced rate, which would reset the market.

E: Cousins for sure will reset the market

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

No.

The Raiders were a ****ing dumpster fire organization and needed all their draft picks.

Cap space is a thing that teams are getting more and more of, at a rate faster than they would like. That's before discussing that waiting another year just means Carr's value could be a shit load more because the Packers could lock up Arod at a new enhanced rate, which would reset the market.

E: Cousins for sure will reset the market

Cap space is going to start drying up over the next couple of years. It can't survive at the rate it's growing.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Cap space is going to start drying up over the next couple of years. It can't survive at the rate it's growing.

Possibly, but that's still years away.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Ball velocity numbers (MPH) from the Combine:

60 - Mahomes
59 - Webb
56 - Kizer
55 - Trubisky, Evans
53 - Peterman, Kaaya
49 - Watson

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) March 10, 2017

[kccrow]

I don't understand the "wait until next year crowd" whatsoever. Who are you waiting for? I'll get to that from my perspective in a second.

What I will say is that this class, while it isn't polished, certainly has a few QBs worthy of being developed. What I do know is that KC really doesn't have a clear-cut #2 QB on the roster. What I also know is that KC needs to look at the long-term future to replace Alex Smith and they need to do so now if you want a QB that is ready to run Reid's offense when he steps in.

So, onto who you you're waiting for.

Josh Rosen was a Freshman this year. He didn't technically red-shirt in 2015, he merely early-enrolled in classes (Jan) and played spring ball. He has 2016 as his first year of playing. There is far from any guarantee he declares as a Sophomore.

Sam Darnold was a red-shirt Freshman last year. Like Rosen, he has one good year and everyone is claiming to bank for him in 2018. There's no guarantee Darnold declares either. To be quite frank, it's not a regular occurrence that QB's declare before they complete their Junior season.

Luke Falk is your top legitimate prospect, as he'll be red-shirt Senior coming out of Washington State's uptempo offense.

Mason Rudolph is going to be your next top prospect, assuming he continues his ascent coming off his Junior season into his Senior season. He has a solid resume and great arm, but is also coming out of one of those "fancy" spread offenses.

Jake Browning is coming into his true Junior year, so he may be more likely to declare than Rosen or Darnold. We'll have to see what shakes out there and if there's any drop off after his shoulder surgery on his throwing arm following the playoffs this year.

Tanner Magnum, well he's kind of what we have in this draft so far and he's going to be old coming out of BYU. He had a gray-shirt, then 2 years of mission work. He was the back up to Hill, but Hill got hurt and he put up a great year. However, he didn't keep the job for this season, as Hill was again named the starter. Magnum played the season finale and the bowl game after Hill went down again. If he has a great final year, he could see some early round talk, but that's no guarantee. He'll be 24 coming out and would be 25 when the season starts in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield... He kind of reminds me of Chase Daniel, and I'm not so certain he's going to be a top name guy come the draft. Plus, he just hurt the shit out of his stock with his drunk/flee/arrest situation in Arkansas. We'll see there.

Basically, you're waiting on two QB's and hoping KC can get in striking distance at this point. Maybe you end up with a great draft if a couple sophomore's declare, but then you have that situation you have this year of "are they ready?" I don't think you're gaining any of much ground waiting for anything.

If there's a guy there you're comfortable with and think you can develop this season, draft him. Worry about next year when you know what is there next year.

[BryanBusby]

I really don't know why you wouldn't be drafting a QB every single year until you feel that you've got a hit.

The Chiefs need to revamp their entire QB depth chart.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I don't understand the "wait until next year crowd" whatsoever. Who are you waiting for? I'll get to that from my perspective in a second.

What I will say is that this class, while it isn't polished, certainly has a few QBs worthy of being developed. What I do know is that KC really doesn't have a clear-cut #2 QB on the roster. What I also know is that KC needs to look at the long-term future to replace Alex Smith and they need to do so now if you want a QB that is ready to run Reid's offense when he steps in.

So, onto who you you're waiting for.

Josh Rosen was a Freshman this year. He didn't technically red-shirt in 2015, he merely early-enrolled in classes (Jan) and played spring ball. He has 2016 as his first year of playing. There is far from any guarantee he declares as a Sophomore.

Sam Darnold was a red-shirt Freshman last year. Like Rosen, he has one good year and everyone is claiming to bank for him in 2018. There's no guarantee Darnold declares either. To be quite frank, it's not a regular occurrence that QB's declare before they complete their Junior season.

Luke Falk is your top legitimate prospect, as he'll be red-shirt Senior coming out of Washington State's uptempo offense.

Mason Rudolph is going to be your next top prospect, assuming he continues his ascent coming off his Junior season into his Senior season. He has a solid resume and great arm, but is also coming out of one of those "fancy" spread offenses.

Jake Browning is coming into his true Junior year, so he may be more likely to declare than Rosen or Darnold. We'll have to see what shakes out there and if there's any drop off after his shoulder surgery on his throwing arm following the playoffs this year.

Tanner Magnum, well he's kind of what we have in this draft so far and he's going to be old coming out of BYU. He had a gray-shirt, then 2 years of mission work. He was the back up to Hill, but Hill got hurt and he put up a great year. However, he didn't keep the job for this season, as Hill was again named the starter. Magnum played the season finale and the bowl game after Hill went down again. If he has a great final year, he could see some early round talk, but that's no guarantee. He'll be 24 coming out and would be 25 when the season starts in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield... He kind of reminds me of Chase Daniel, and I'm not so certain he's going to be a top name guy come the draft. Plus, he just hurt the shit out of his stock with his drunk/flee/arrest situation in Arkansas. We'll see there.

Basically, you're waiting on two QB's and hoping KC can get in striking distance at this point. Maybe you end up with a great draft if a couple sophomore's declare, but then you have that situation you have this year of "are they ready?" I don't think you're gaining any of much ground waiting for anything.

If there's a guy there you're comfortable with and think you can develop this season, draft him. Worry about next year when you know what is there next year.

I'm not saying don't draft one. I'm just saying don't waste a draft pick by reaching for an overrated QB prospect if there's someone at another position who is clearly a better player and will actually contribute to the success of the team.

Even the top couple of QBs in this class are late 1st to early 2nd round talents at best while the rest look like 4th round, or later, developmental prospects. But some idiotic team is going to reach on them and lose out on a higher caliber player at another position.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

I really don't know why you wouldn't be drafting a QB every single year until you feel that you've got a hit.

The Chiefs need to revamp their entire QB depth chart.

Agree.. which is why I hope KC drafts a QB like Peterman late rd 3, and can still draft one of the top 2018 quarterbacks. All the more so, if for some reason Peterman isn't impressing them by the end of 2017 (from a practice/film room perspective).

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

Agree.. which is why I hope KC drafts a QB like Peterman late rd 3, and can still draft one of the top 2018 quarterbacks. All the more so, if for some reason Peterman isn't impressing them by the end of 2017 (from a practice/film room perspective).

Imo, Webb has more potential. If they take Peterman, they might as well have held onto Murray.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

Agree.. which is why I hope KC drafts a QB like Peterman late rd 3, and can still draft one of the top 2018 quarterbacks. All the more so, if for some reason Peterman isn't impressing them by the end of 2017 (from a practice/film room perspective).

I don't think there's a specific QB or range I'd lock myself into. Just stack the QB's you like up on your board and just work the board.

If it shakes out that you have an ideal match in the first, go for it. If not, don't force it.

I might be in the minority with this opinion, but I think there's a good variety of prospects for the Chiefs in this draft.