Are the Bills overhyped?

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Update: Yes, the Bills were overhyped.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I can totally see why people think they're the favorites. It feels like it's their year in the sense that it is the best opportunity they've had and probably will have.

Here's your chance Buffalo, take the AFC while you can, but I don't think it's going to be easy this year, and it definitely won't be after that.

This roster is loaded with young talent. I feel good about out being better long term.

The Bills aren't exactly on the decline.

Diggs probably has two good years left, likewise with Milano. Poyer and Miller are on the downsides of their career but beyond that lot, who do you see in the back half of a window?

Allen, Dawkins, Knox, Oliver, Edmunds, Davis, Shakir, Rousseau, Cook, Elam - that's a heck of a young core in its own right. The Davis thing could really be frustrating because at times he looked positively outstanding last year and the guy's only 23.

I wouldn't bank on the Bills just fading away on us. Allens cap figure about doubles next year, so that's a concern for them. Diggs jumps a fair amount as well. They restructured Dawkins so his will double. Bates increases but he's on a pretty nice deal anyway. Miller had better be damn good; his cap triples next year and they're stuck with him (realistically speaking) in 2024 as well.

If there's an issue for them, it's the cap. They actually have more committed
for the 2024 season with only 28 players on the roster than they have for the 2022 season. And while some of that is fake, next year's isn't. They have $218 million on the cap for next season with only 37 players signed. They could move some of Allen's around, but not Diggs and not Miller. Probably not White, probably not Dawkins. Maybe Milano but they probably shouldn't; same with Micah Hyde. They'll probably end up cutting Morse. If they extend Oliver they can knock his 5th year option number down.

I think I could probably take them into 2022 with about $190 million on the cap if Allen cooperated and they didn't do anything too crazy with Diggs, Milano and Hyde. So that would project to around $30 million in cap space after their projected rollover. But they'd need to sign 15-20 guys with that space.

There isn't a lot of wiggle cap-wise for them next year. They've pushed those chips in.

[DJ's left nut]

Now compare that to the Chiefs next season and we're in MUCH better shape than they are. We'll enter the off-season with about $20 million in cap space before making a move. Then we'll cut Clark to free up another $20 million. That's without touching Mahomes roster bonus that could be spread as a signing bonus.

And man, Chris Jones needs to get better, get reasonable or get gone. He is NOT a guy who has demonstrated he's worth a $27 million cap hit next season. If you can't get him extended, I think I'd look to trade him.

I mean you could convert Mahomes roster bonus to signing bonus, cut Clark and Jones and enter the off-season with $85 million in cap space. Granted, you'll need to address the loss of Jones at that point, and you'd have Fenton, Thornhill, Saunders, Nnadi, Wylie, OBJ, JJSS and Hardman as key contributors entering FA, but that's not a lot of guys in there who would be super difficult to replace.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yes, Miller is the name. But he also tallied 30 pressures in 764 snaps last year. Hughes popped 26 in 558 snaps.

Again. The Bills are really good. But their road is tougher and the upgrades could easily be smaller than perceived.

The Miller deal will prove to be a mistake as soon as next season. He's cheap this year; he'll pay for himself just fine.

But man, the next two seasons are gonna be tough. He has about $40 million due over those next two years and they don't have many (any?) ways to avoid it given his age; they won't want to extend him out.

That was a real balls or bust decision.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I got downvoted into oblivion a few days ago bc I picked the Bills to go to the SB.

They are just loaded man. Their defense is as good as it gets. Best safety duo in the league, Tre White coming back, 1st rd corner, Edmunds and Milano at LB. Now they added Von Miller to their DL that had a promising rookie DE and Ed Oliver is a quality DT.

They just don’t have many holes. And sure injuries could derail them just like any team but on paper they are looking great.

And their division is garbage. They are going 5-1 at worst.

Defense is as good as it gets? You saw that game in Arrowhead, right?

They have some pieces on defense, but they have definite weaknesses too. They feasted on a weak schedule full of bad QBs and backups.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Very good coach is debatable the decision to kick it into the end zone at the end of the game is questionable . If Reid was on their sideline and McDermott on our side I would be we lose that game.

Frazier’s defense in those last 13 seconds was more egregious. Did he actually think we were going to Hail Mary it from the 25? Because that’s the D he played.

I would have just played defense. Period. None of this 20 yards off the line BS

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Defense is as good as it gets? You saw that game in Arrowhead, right?

They have some pieces on defense, but they have definite weaknesses too. They feasted on a weak schedule full of bad QBs and backups.

They were without their best corner Tre White. Getting him back is a huge boost to that defense. They also added a 1st rd corner and Von Miller.

That moves the needle quite a bit.

They are going all in like they should

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by RunKC

They were without their best corner Tre White. Getting him back is a huge boost to that defense. They also added a 1st rd corner and Von Miller.

That moves the needle quite a bit.

They are going all in like they should

White is already hurt again this year.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RunKC

They were without their best corner Tre White. Getting him back is a huge boost to that defense. They also added a 1st rd corner and Von Miller.

That moves the needle quite a bit.

They are going all in like they should

White is missing the first four games of the year, minimum, as he's on PUP. And with him suffering the ACL tear in November of last year, him hitting full speed/strength this year is no guarantee.

Von Miller is not the upgrade from Jerry Hughes that I think many assume he is.

[Hammock Parties]

lol

The Bills have almost 1/5th of the Championship bets @DKSportsbook ��

�� Watch the latest episode of The Sweat: https://t.co/bmQN5Q5WpD pic.twitter.com/RUOWNKigaU

— SGG Media (@SGG_hq) September 8, 2022

[Hammock Parties]

10 of the Bills 12 wins last season came against these QBs (playoffs included):

Jacoby Brissett
Taylor Heinicke
Davis Mills
Tua Tagovailoa
Mike White
Trevor Siemian
Cam Newton
Mac Jones
Zach Wilson
Mac Jones pic.twitter.com/dfaEtolyDl

— ����‼️ (@LanceTHESPOKEN) September 8, 2022

[mr. tegu]

I’m going to enjoy watching people make excuses for their average defense. I don’t recall the Smith year the Chiefs played basically all backup or scrub QBs basically all season but the Bills just got done doing that last season and I can only assume they will not enjoy such luck again this season to get their numbers inflated.

[New World Order]

Their D is probably the best in the NFL and their offense is probably top 5.

[Skyy God]

You can’t attempt to roster a rapist punter and win the SB.

Stabby MLB, gropey QB, or DV-loving WR, sure. But not a P.

[Chiefnj2]

Not overhyped. If they squib kick they probably beat KC.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

there was a shitload of hype around the ravens last year

Like **** there was. They lost all their RB's in TC, lost Marcus Peters and a number of other players to injury well before the season even began. Whatever hype the Ravens may have had died in camp.