Gasoline over $4 coming to a pump near you because this thread is ass

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by penguinz

It's not about mileage. Running octane lower than recommended can cause damage to engine and/or emissions system.

Eh. Don't think I buy that theory with modern cars.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by jd1020

You guys dont plug your tires yourself? Sheesh.

https://www.amazon.com/BETOOLL-Repai...47&sr=8-5&th=1

$15 to plug 15 nails. Who the hell would spend $40 for a 16 year old to do that?

I'd love for one of those to blow out while I'm pulling 13,000 pounds in my 8000 pound pickups.

I use plugs on our various ATV's for playtime, no way am I letting that shit touch a highway vehicle with my family in the car.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by notorious

I'd love for one of those to blow out while I'm pulling 13,000 pounds in my 8000 pound pickups.

I use plugs on our various ATV's for playtime, no way am I letting that shit touch a highway vehicle with my family in the car.

To each their own, I guess.

Around here if you take your tire to a shop for a nail or screw repair, 9 times out of 10 its getting a plug. Up to you if you want to pay $20+ to have someone else do something thats easily done yourself. These guys arent making money from repairing your tires. They are making money by selling you new tires. So you better believe the cheapest and fastest method in tire repair is going to be the one used most of the time. If you are carrying heavy loads you probably shouldn't be doing it on a tire that's ever been repaired with a plug or patch.

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Eh. Don't think I buy that theory with modern cars.

You're correct. Cars that are designed for high octane is just to force consumers to buy more expensive gasoline.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The same thing happens at Walmart. Yeah, they have great policies but they have shit employees that don't give one **** about how good of a job they do. They don't depend on you for repeat business like a local shop does and they're getting paid Walmart wages on top of that.

I've gotten tires at Walmart/Sam's Club twice. I know several other people that have done it, as well. Nobody ever has a good experience.

So I'd say your experience is the exception, not mine.

Yeah Walmart's so called mechanics, work for peanuts and to be honest, if they were worth a damn, they would be working anywhere else and would be earning a lot better wage.

I've used Walmart twice for tire work, once on an ATV and once on a Truck. In both cases, it was because I couldn't find anyone else that could get me in quickly. The first time, it was on a truck and I went back when the mechanic was tightening the lug nuts. I wanted to make sure that he was A. using a torque wrench and B. that he knew what the torque spec was for the lugs. Surprisingly, he was using a torque wrench and knew the spec.

The ATV was a different matter. I took one of my ATV's down to have some new tires I had purchased installed, because I was heading out to ride for the next four days. When they were done, I asked the mechanic,(and I use that term loosely)"what spec did you torque those lugs down to." He looked at me with a deer in the headlight look and told me 35 lbs. I said, "that's great, if I wanted a tire and rim flying off on the trail, they are supposed to be torqued down to 75 pounds."

He was all butt hurt and said "You are dead wrong!" I said "come here, lets call my buddy down at the Polaris dealership, who has been a mechanic down there for 30 years." I turned on the speaker phone and my buddy verified that the correct spec was 75 lbs of torque.

When I got home, I grabbed my torque wrench to check his work and I still had to torque the lugs to the correct spec. Even after the correct spec was verified by Polaris, the dipstick only torqued the lugs down to variances of 53 to 61 lbs. Needless to say, I haven't been back.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

And FTR, the local Walmart is 5 miles away. The "local" Sam's Club is 45 miles away. Different cities, different people, same result.

I have two friends here that got oil changes at Walmart and in both cases, the tech didn't put the damn plug back in after changing the oil. What do you suppose happened to their cars?

And that is why I still change my own oil.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by jd1020

To each their own, I guess.

Around here if you take your tire to a shop for a nail or screw repair, 9 times out of 10 its getting a plug. Up to you if you want to pay $20+ to have someone else do something thats easily done yourself. These guys arent making money from repairing your tires. They are making money by selling you new tires. So you better believe the cheapest and fastest method in tire repair is going to be the one used most of the time. If you are carrying heavy loads you probably shouldn't be doing it on a tire that's ever been repaired with a plug or patch.

I've never seen a plug in a car tire. If I asked our local tire dealer about it they'd probably laugh in my face.

[scho63]

We seem stuck between $4.19 and $4.39 a gallon here in Phoenix metro area.

[crayzkirk]

I feel your pain on the tire repair; bought mine at Goodyear four years ago and haven't put 15k miles on them due to working at home since 3/14/2020. Had a flat and brought the car in. I paid for road hazard insurance and figured it was covered. Nope, now there's a 4 year limit on the road hazard insurance. $30 and three hours to get a tire repaired. He was proud that they put the jack back in the trunk. When I checked, everything was just tossed in the trunk as they couldn't follow the instructions for spare and jack storage.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by jd1020

To each their own, I guess.

Around here if you take your tire to a shop for a nail or screw repair, 9 times out of 10 its getting a plug.

That's not true. Most legit shops would not mess with plugs for an actual permanent fix.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Fish

That's not true. Most legit shops would not mess with plugs for an actual permanent fix.

I've literally watched a legit shop come out to my car to take my tire off to repair a nail puncture only to be fortunate enough to notice that the nail was visible without taking the tire off the car and because my wheels were turned and pushing the nail out of the wheel well they didn't even take the tire off the car to put a plug in.

There is no such thing as a permanent fix to a tire repair. The actual "proper" way to repair a tire would be to install a combo plug and patch. So if you have taken your tires to get repaired and have "never seen a plug in your tire" then guess what, that buddy ol' pal of yours that claims to be doing it the "right way" is lying to you.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I've literally watched a legit shop come out to my car to take my tire off to repair a nail puncture only to be fortunate enough to notice that the nail was visible without taking the tire off the car and because my wheels were turned and pushing the nail out of the wheel well they didn't even take the tire off the car to put a plug in.

There is no such thing as a permanent fix to a tire repair. The actual "proper" way to repair a tire would be to install a combo plug and patch.

I'm not sure why you're so anecdotally fixated on tire plugs. It's not really a typical fix at most shops. It's more of an emergency fix, and shops can't really profit much from it. It's not nearly as reliable of a fix. There's little reason for a shop to mess with it.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Fish

I'm not sure why you're so anecdotally fixated on tire plugs. It's not really a typical fix at most shops. It's more of an emergency fix, and shops can't really profit much from it. It's not nearly as reliable of a fix. There's little reason for a shop to mess with it.

I'm not anecdotally fixated on anything.

Why the use of Improper Repairs Persists Despite Clear Warnings

Despite the difference of a few dollars in cost between an unsafe, improper repair and a safe combination repair, widespread use of these improper repairs persists. Several factors contribute to this continued popularity of improper repair techniques. First, because plug-only repairs are performed from the outside of the tire and do not require demounting the tire from the rim, a plug-only repair can performed by almost anyone, anytime and with nothing more than an inexpensive repair kit. It is a relatively simple process that does not require the multiple steps necessary for a proper repair, like demounting, sanding or buffing, nor are adhesives required, making these repairs faster and less expensive. For most people it means the difference between being able to “do it yourself” at your own convenience, and having to leave your vehicle at a repair shop to be fixed on someone else’s schedule.

Secondly, problems caused by plug-only repairs may not happen immediately and, therefore, even if the tire does eventually fail, people may not associate that failure with the repair that occurred months or years earlier.

Additionally, many tire mechanics are never trained with proper techniques and many have used string plugs for years, resulting in a comfort level with the product. Many tire repair shop policies actually encourage the use of this method. Past testimony indicates that some shops are unaware or unconcerned with the safety issues caused by plug-only repairs. Other shops yield to the wishes of consumers who may insist the mechanic perform a plug-only repair that may save money. Still other cases show that some repair facilities actually train their mechanics to use plug-only repairs and supply the shop with the tools to do so. However, even shops those “officially discourage or prohibit the use of string plugs often employ a pricing and wage structure that creates a strong incentive for its workers to use them anyway.

After reporting the out come of Barber case discussed above, one automotive repair websites received scores of comments critical of the litigious Americans” who had field lawsuits related to plug-only repairs. One commentator, apparently a mechanic at a facility that repairs tires said “We were told to patch, but I buy my own plugs … a patch pays 0.3 a plug pays 0.3” In other words, most repair facilities compensate mechanics by the type of job, assigning a specific amount of time to complete it. If a tire, it will usually take longer that the time allotted to perform a combination repair. These results in a incentive for the mechanic to use the quicker, less effective repair method to save time, make more money and move on to the next job.

https://www.carabinshaw.com/unsafe-t...nce-of-da.html

It's the ****ing most common fix. It's not anecdote.

Like I said, to each their own. But it's awfully hilarious to hear a bunch of anecdotes on how improper a plug repair is and how they've never seen a plug in their "properly" repaired tires with a patch only.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I've literally watched a legit shop come out to my car to take my tire off to repair a nail puncture only to be fortunate enough to notice that the nail was visible without taking the tire off the car and because my wheels were turned and pushing the nail out of the wheel well they didn't even take the tire off the car to put a plug in.

There is no such thing as a permanent fix to a tire repair. The actual "proper" way to repair a tire would be to install a combo plug and patch.

I'm not sure why you're so anecdotally fixated on tire plugs. It's not really a typical fix at most shops. It's more of an emergency fix, and shops can't really profit much from it. It's not nearly as reliable of a fix. There's little reason for a shop to mess with it.

[Pablo]

I had a tire plugged once.

Got it home, went to sleep, woke up the next morning with my house ransacked, my credit card stolen and a pregnant wife. That was not a good year.