*****The Patrick Mahomes Thread*****

[Dante84]

IT ****ING HAPPENED



OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dwwataz

The absolutely outrageous thing? He's a kid. Dude is 23 years old and in his first year as a starter. JFC! Imagine how much better his reads, his decisions, and his accuracy are going to be after a couple of seasons. I thought I'd read somewhere that a QB doesn't hit their prime til 28-30 or something like that. Lol dudes, he's not even close to "his prime" and he's making it look so easy.

I was thinking about the long-term window of Mahomes in relation to someone like Rodgers and I realized that, like, nobody else on this team...matters.

Okay, that's overstating it, but think about the duration of Aaron Rodgers career. When he was a first year starter, his top 2 WRs were Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. He had a good young RB by the name of Ryan Grant. And Jennings and Grant were young.

Rodgers was still in his prime when Jennings, Driver and Grant were done. His rookie developmental guy that year - Jordy Nelson - was washed up when Rodgers was smack in the middle of his prime.

The Patrick Mahomes throughput is going to be a thing to behold. There are going to be 3 different windows of skill position players in this guy's career. All these guys he's going to go out there over the next 3-4 seasons kicking ass and taking names with will be a memory for him by the time he's 30. And the guys he's leaning on from 30-34 will be completely different than the guys he's looking for when he's 35 and beyond. All these parts are going to move around him for years and years to come.

What a weird damn thing that is. Very surreal to think about.

[suzzer99]

It will be very hard to surround Mahomes with the talent level around him he has now. Even with #1 draft picks or shelling out for free agents you'd be lucky to get a Hill/Kelce/Hunt much less all 3. And if you shell out for free agents, while Mahomes is in his highest-paid-QB-ever-deal, you have no money for anything else.

This is magic time - hopefully we can extend Hill and keep it going a few years before Kelce starts to decline.

If we can win a Superbowl or two people will talk about this offense for decades like they do about the '85 Bears defense.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

It will be very hard to surround Mahomes with the talent level around him he has now. Even with #1 draft picks or shelling out for free agents you'd be lucky to get a Hill/Kelce/Hunt much less all 3. And if you shell out for free agents, while Mahomes is in his highest-paid-QB-ever-deal, you have no money for anything else.

Oh shit no. This is almost certainly never going to happen again.

The Chiefs have legitimate arguments to have the best WR, RB and TE in football. If not the best, guys that best fit Mahomes at least. And the cap space to add a luxury item like Watkins who'd be a top 20 WR if health and opportunity allowed.

Trust in Veach all you want, but the odds overwhelmingly suggest that we aren't falling into another trio of guys like Kelce, Hill and Hunt in the using two 3rds and a 5th...ever. And that's the only way you can get these kinds of weapons around a QB that will eventually cost real money.

No, the next 2 years are probably peak output for this Chiefs offense. And as the weapons fall off around Mahomes, he'll simply have to get better to make up for it. Or he'll settle into the Rodgers tier of phenomenal but statistically mortal. He'll threaten 40 TDs instead of 50. He'll hit 35 TDs in week 15 rather than week 12. He'll be goddamn amazing but the stats won't necessarily reflect it.

That's just the way things go for the elite passers. Unless they marry a billionaire and the owner offers them sweetheart retirement deals under the table...

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by dwwataz

The absolutely outrageous thing? He's a kid. Dude is 23 years old and in his first year as a starter. JFC! Imagine how much better his reads, his decisions, and his accuracy are going to be after a couple of seasons. I thought I'd read somewhere that a QB doesn't hit their prime til 28-30 or something like that. Lol dudes, he's not even close to "his prime" and he's making it look so easy.

I can’t wait for a few years to go by when he won’t be experiencing new stuff seemingly every week. You saw those nerves in his first appearance on Monday Night and Sunday Night. Also saw some of that in his first home game too. Those nerves will probably be an issue in his first playoff game.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh shit no. This is almost certainly never going to happen again.

The Chiefs have legitimate arguments to have the best WR, RB and TE in football. If not the best, guys that best fit Mahomes at least. And the cap space to add a luxury item like Watkins who'd be a top 20 WR if health and opportunity allowed.

Trust in Veach all you want, but the odds overwhelmingly suggest that we aren't falling into another trio of guys like Kelce, Hill and Hunt in the using two 3rds and a 5th...ever. And that's the only way you can get these kinds of weapons around a QB that will eventually cost real money.

No, the next 2 years are probably peak output for this Chiefs offense. And as the weapons fall off around Mahomes, he'll simply have to get better to make up for it. Or he'll settle into the Rodgers tier of phenomenal but statistically mortal. He'll threaten 40 TDs instead of 50. He'll hit 35 TDs in week 15 rather than week 12. He'll be goddamn amazing but the stats won't necessarily reflect it.

That's just the way things go for the elite passers. Unless they marry a billionaire and the owner offers them sweetheart retirement deals under the table...

That's why our window to fix the defense is NOW.

The Chiefs can't be sentimental this offseason. They need to make hard decisions to at least get a mediocre product on the field.

[CupidStunt]

Mahomes is officially the heavy favorite to win the MVP. To win $100 betting on him to win it, you have to wager $110. If you wager $110 on Brees, you'd win $440.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

That's why our window to fix the defense is NOW.

The Chiefs can't be sentimental this offseason. They need to make hard decisions to at least get a mediocre product on the field.

Up to 19th in points allowed. Have surrendered 23 or fewer in 5 of the last 6. All without contributions from Berry or Houston.

In the modern NFL, that's okay. The defense has grown into the ranks of firmly mediocre at this point. It's a far cry from days of yore when we could win games with that unit, but it is what it is.

I just think we need to recalibrate our understanding of what constitutes mediocre these days. Once we do that, we'll realize that mediocre is pretty much exactly what this defense is.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Up to 19th in points allowed. Have surrendered 23 or fewer in 5 of the last 6. All without contributions from Berry or Houston.

In the modern NFL, that's okay. The defense has grown into the ranks of firmly mediocre at this point. It's a far cry from days of yore when we could win games with that unit, but it is what it is.

I just think we need to recalibrate our understanding of what constitutes mediocre these days. Once we do that, we'll realize that mediocre is pretty much exactly what this defense is.

I'm not sold just yet.

The Rams and the Chargers re-match should give a clear picture of where this defense is.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I'm not sold just yet.

The Rams and the Chargers re-match should give a clear picture of where this defense is.

Depends on your expectations vs. the Rams. Those guys have been strafing everyone just as badly as we have on offense. To use them as a barometer is kinda like saying "I'll believe a defense is good if they can shut down KC..."

The only way that happens is if KC just has a bad day. No defense is shutting down the Chiefs so they're just a bad metric to use.

The Chargers, OTOH, I'll give you. If the Chiefs go out there and give up 30+ to the Chargers that will be a definite step back. I'd like to see them keep the Chargers in that 21-24 range and that would be a success. 27 is acceptable but not ideal. Beyond that means that the Chiefs defense isn't coming together as I thought they were.

But the Rams...even if they play well I'll probably chalk that up to Mexico City and just an off-day from STL. I guess it would depend on how it went. I'm just going to have a difficult time gleaning development from that game.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I'm not sold just yet.

The Rams and the Chargers re-match should give a clear picture of where this defense is.

Lol no they won't.

Taking on the only two offenses in the league as potent as our is what you consider a good barometer?

Jesus dude...no defense in the league has been able to keep pace with those O's and our won't either.

The Chiefs will have to score 35+ at least to beat those teams. The Rams and Chargers throwing the ball over the yard on you isn't an indictment.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Lol no they won't.

Taking on the only two offenses in the league as potent as our is what you consider a good barometer?

Jesus dude...no defense in the league has been able to keep pace with those O's and our won't either.

The Chiefs will have to score 35+ at least to beat those teams. The Rams and Chargers throwing the ball over the yard on you isn't an indictment.

I'm not asking for a shutdown performance. I'm just asking that it's not a "no-punt game" that we saw in the 03' playoffs and against the Pats this year.

If we can at least "disrupt" their offense on three or so drives, that should be enough to win. We absolutely could not meet that standard against the Patriots. Not even close.

Is that fair?

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Depends on your expectations vs. the Rams. Those guys have been strafing everyone just as badly as we have on offense. To use them as a barometer is kinda like saying "I'll believe a defense is good if they can shut down KC..."

The only way that happens is if KC just has a bad day. No defense is shutting down the Chiefs so they're just a bad metric to use.

The Chargers, OTOH, I'll give you. If the Chiefs go out there and give up 30+ to the Chargers that will be a definite step back. I'd like to see them keep the Chargers in that 21-24 range and that would be a success. 27 is acceptable but not ideal. Beyond that means that the Chiefs defense isn't coming together as I thought they were.

But the Rams...even if they play well I'll probably chalk that up to Mexico City and just an off-day from STL. I guess it would depend on how it went. I'm just going to have a difficult time gleaning development from that game.

All totally fair, I just have a difficult time gleaning development from the last two games for opposite reasons. If elite offenses are going to be able to operate like the Patriots did (a no-punt special), that's going to make things very tough to win 3 in a row in January.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The Chargers, OTOH, I'll give you. If the Chiefs go out there and give up 30+ to the Chargers that will be a definite step back. I'd like to see them keep the Chargers in that 21-24 range and that would be a success. 27 is acceptable but not ideal. Beyond that means that the Chiefs defense isn't coming together as I thought they were.

.

The Chargers are playing as well any offense in the league right now. There's not a chance in hell the Chiefs hold them to 21-24 range. I would not expect that at all.

Aside from the Patriots, the Chargers might be the biggest threat to our superbowl hopes.

The Chargers are a 13-3/12-4 football team with a QB who's thrown 19td's to 3 ints, they have 3 legit receiving targets that are a matchup nightmare for our small corners, and they've discovered a running game.

[CupidStunt]

This is a SICK stat:

After both teams, KC and its opponent, have had 1 drive, their collective scores on the season are 48-3.

Talk about starting the game on the right foot.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I'm not asking for a shutdown performance. I'm just asking that it's not a "no-punt game" that we saw in the 03' playoffs and against the Pats this year.

If we can at least "disrupt" their offense on two-three drives, that should be enough to win. We absolutely could not meet that standard against the Patriots. Not even close.

Is that fair?

Points is what matters. The Saints made the Rams punt thoroughly in the 1st half and the Rams still put up 35.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Lol no they won't.

Taking on the only two offenses in the league as potent as our is what you consider a good barometer?

Jesus dude...no defense in the league has been able to keep pace with those O's and our won't either.

The Chiefs will have to score 35+ at least to beat those teams. The Rams and Chargers throwing the ball over the yard on you isn't an indictment.

The Chargers have been held under 30 by the Raiders, 49ers, Titans, Seahawks and....us. 3 of those times they were held under 27.

The Chargers offense is good, but it's not in the same class as ours or the Rams. I think they're exactly that stiff test that isn't off the scale that makes a perfect milepost for the defense.

The 'God this defense sucks' crowd will never accept 'under 30' as a marker of a tolerable defensive performance but in this league with these rules and an offense of our own that scores with like this one does, I think you have to view that as a tolerable number.

I don't think we give enough consideration to just how difficult this offense makes it for the defense. I wouldn't change it, don't get me wrong, but the D is routinely on the field for 70 plays/gm because the offense just gets the ball, scores in 3 minutes and puts the other guys back out there. And the opponent isn't looking to milk clock when we're getting this big leads either - they're going play after play after play.