Let's talk about the Bills - AFC Championship Edition

[TLO]

Discuss

[Dante84]

I'm feeling more confident.

What are the odds this is a 10+ point Chiefs win? I'm thinking 25-30%.

WHEN CHIEFS ARE ON OFFENSE
I think our Offense will have a plan for the Bills great defensive line, and I also think their secondary will be challenged. I feel like there should be a handful of designed of deep rollouts for Patrick (with blockers and protection on that side) to give him time to exploit their secondary or check down.

If we sit in the pocket all game and expect our O-line to hold up against Oliver for 3+ seconds, we're in trouble. Reid, Nagy and Mahomes have to know this as the develop the gameplan.


WHEN CHIEFS ARE ON DEFENSE
On Defense, I think the best plan is to be aggressive as **** to A) stop the run quickly, and B) hurry Josh's clock. Sure, Cook or Josh might get loose on one or two. But if we are conservative, Josh can improvise with the best of them if given time. With Watson back, the Bills will have to pick their poison on who they want to throw at. Last game they just picked on Johnson and avoided McDuffie, and that's not an option this time.

If Josh has to make fast decisions within the context of the play that is called, instead of improv-ing and waiting for something to open up, our coverage should hold up.

As for how we cover TE's across the middle of the field, my hope is that Spags has a plan, because that's our toughest matchup.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, I heard one of the Chiefs podcast guys going on and on about how slow the Bills secondary was...

...and then start talking about how critical it will be to pound them with Kareem Hunt.

Why? I'd come out in Eleven personnel, put Thuney out there on an island, spread the field and sling the ****ing ball. For at least the first 15.

See if it works. And if it does, just go scorched earth on 'em.

Make them show you they can slow down the passing game first. There's no reason at all to 'establish the run' in this game with their aging coverage backer and slow DBs. Attack them.

If it doesn't work, you've got 3 quarters and the best 'comeback' QB in NFL playoff history. But man, if it does work, this game could be over by halftime.

I'd rather see us try to force this thing into a track meet. Make Allen get aggressive. Make Shakir beat McDuffie. Make Coleman or Cooper actually produce - they haven't in 6 weeks.

Make them WIN it.

Because I don't think they can.

This. I think we win either way but how we win depends on which version of Mahomes we get. If we get his 2023/24 version, we'll win 24-21. If we get classic Mahomes, I don't see any way Bills keep it within 2 scores. My prediction is 44-24 in that scenario.

God I want a blowout win so bad after the past week of crying by bandwagon bills "fans" about officiating and about Mahomes.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by -King-

This. I think we win either way but how we win depends on which version of Mahomes we get. If we get his 2023/24 version, we'll win 24-21. If we get classic Mahomes, I don't see any way Bills keep it within 2 scores. My prediction is 44-24 in that scenario.

God I want a blowout win so bad after the past week of crying by bandwagon bills "fans" about officiating and about Mahomes.

It's the perfect time for this team to finally blow out a quality opponent in the playoffs.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Someone placed a $1.3M money-line wager on KC.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So be aggressive on defense.

That's why I hate this sit and wait shit that teams do against Buffalo. It ALLOWS them to go on those grind it out drives.

Get after them. Come crashing into the run lanes to force Cook to make a fast decision and if he gets out wide we have the tackling in our secondary to clean that up.

And if they break one, they break one. Send the offense back out there to continue to attack that secondary.

All these years people have been talking about shortening the game against the Chiefs and we have people wanting to do that job FOR them.

No -- don't shorten the game. Make this a 14 possession game instead of an 8 possession game. Get aggressive on both sides of the ball and make them outplay, out-execute and/or out-talent us.

I have no reason to assume they can do any of those things.

I agree. When the Bills go in jumbo or put more blockers out there, I hope Spags blitzes every time. Put McDuffie and Watson outside, disguise cover 2 to single high and just wreck him.

Blitz the running lanes and force Allen to make a quick decision with a low percentage throw.

[Wisconsin_Chief]

Originally Posted by staylor26

It's the perfect time for this team to finally blow out a quality opponent in the playoffs.

If it was ever going to happen, now is definitely the time. This team is one win away from a chance to make history, and yet they've been doubted more than ever before.

Just come out and lay an ass whooping that will make Washington and Philly both just not even want to show up for the Super Bowl. It needs to occur.

[InChiefsHeaven]

Not sure why, but I'm feeling oddly confident in a 2 score win. Minimum 10 points. I just feel like this team has been quietly ramping up all year. Yes it's the playoffs, and yes the Bills are the best in the AFC not named the Chiefs, but they are not as good as the Chiefs. Patrick is a man driven by legacy and making his mark. A 3 peat opportunity comes once every never. I don't see him wasting it, same with the rest of the team. Especially the "old guys" like Kelce and Jones. Also, guys like DHop and Hollywood who have this chance to finally win a ring. I hope DHop goes the **** OFF...

Then you have the 22 draft class who have never NOT won a Super Bowl...

This team just knows how to win and they are built for it. Now is the time...

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yeah, also that KC doesn’t have the explosive players to take advantage of Buffalo secondary according to Buffalo talk radio.

I listened to their Locked on podcast otw home today. The guy they have obviously really only knows about the Bills, and not what or how our games have gone aside from the stats. Also constantly talking about week 11, despite both teams having lots of players that didn’t play in that game.

Did say he was worried about lack of film on Hollywood and how we’re going to use him. Talked about how our run defense has been declining some since week 11, but that’s without the context of those games. Obviously thinks TEs will be an issue for us. Also mentioned Remigio had 9 return fumbles in college and thought they might try to key in on that. Didn’t really say anything about their injuries or how it could create some issues for them.

[Clyde Frog]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Someone placed a $1.3M money-line wager on KC.

That's only going to pay out ~1 MM

But rigged and refs so it's basically free money

[ChiefsHawk]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You're supposed to be full practice at least once before being cleared. Benford was conveniently listed as DNP for personal reasons. It's a loophole that they're exploiting because it's the playoffs. They wouldn't be able to do it during the regular season.

No rooting for an injury but with them doing that and he gets f'd up. Heads will roll for abusing the loophole.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Low T guys love Buffalo.

This guy was on with Mina Kimes and said there was no doubt who he was picking.





What strikes me is how these analytics bros love looking at regular season stats and don't think playoff football is any different.

What is very interesting to me is the inability to account for personnel changes and adjustments and how that might have affected the regular season.

If you’re running just a stats based analysis on the whole season, yeah, the Chiefs don’t look impressive. If you are looking at the whole picture, you see a team that played most of the season without Rashee Rice, that only got DeAndre Hopkins as a replacement midseason, that only got Brown back for the final 3 games of the year (and he didn’t play in one of them). And you see a Buffalo team that is injured in some spots that make KC a tough matchup for them.

If KC can handle Buffalo up front, the Bills are going to either (1) need to win a shootout when the Bills and Josh Allen out-coach and out-play Mahomes or (2) get lucky with turnovers to win.

Yeah, the Bills can win. They’re good. But their paths to victory and advantages are not as varied or obvious as some are acting.

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, I heard one of the Chiefs podcast guys going on and on about how slow the Bills secondary was...

...and then start talking about how critical it will be to pound them with Kareem Hunt.

Why? I'd come out in Eleven personnel, put Thuney out there on an island, spread the field and sling the ****ing ball. For at least the first 15.

See if it works. And if it does, just go scorched earth on 'em.

Make them show you they can slow down the passing game first. There's no reason at all to 'establish the run' in this game with their aging coverage backer and slow DBs. Attack them.

If it doesn't work, you've got 3 quarters and the best 'comeback' QB in NFL playoff history. But man, if it does work, this game could be over by halftime.

I'd rather see us try to force this thing into a track meet. Make Allen get aggressive. Make Shakir beat McDuffie. Make Coleman or Cooper actually produce - they haven't in 6 weeks.

Make them WIN it.

Because I don't think they can.

I was pleased to see the weather looks decent. The last thing we want is to get into a rock fight with Josh Allen and that line IMOP. I agree with you...I think we should spread them out and sling it and force them to push the envelope when they're on offense. If the Bills can get away with a 20-17 type 3 yards and a cloud of dust running game with Allen converting 3rd and 4th and short you're damn right they're content with that this year.

[Hammock Parties]

Ray Davis didn’t log a full practice last week and played on Sunday.

Bills are just loopholing their ass off.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

What is very interesting to me is the inability to account for personnel changes and adjustments and how that might have affected the regular season.

If you’re running just a stats based analysis on the whole season, yeah, the Chiefs don’t look impressive. If you are looking at the whole picture, you see a team that played most of the season without Rashee Rice, that only got DeAndre Hopkins as a replacement midseason, that only got Brown back for the final 3 games of the year (and he didn’t play in one of them). And you see a Buffalo team that is injured in some spots that make KC a tough matchup for them.

If KC can handle Buffalo up front, the Bills are going to either (1) need to win a shootout when the Bills and Josh Allen out-coach and out-play Mahomes or (2) get lucky with turnovers to win.

Yeah, the Bills can win. They’re good. But their paths to victory and advantages are not as varied or obvious as some are acting.

I think the Houston game soured a lot of media on us.

Because our offense that had started to click looked pedestrian again.


But I think there are two major factors.


Houston Defense was playing great, they have absolute stars that Buffalo does not have. Ed Oliver is not a Danielle Hunter or a Will Anderson. Buffalo does not have 2 lock down corners.

Game script was to play conservative and win with defense.

[SAGA45]

Originally Posted by -King-

This. I think we win either way but how we win depends on which version of Mahomes we get. If we get his 2023/24 version, we'll win 24-21. If we get classic Mahomes, I don't see any way Bills keep it within 2 scores.

What's so awesome about Mahomes is his ability to dig into his classic bag if the situation calls for it, especially in the playoffs.