*****The Patrick Mahomes Thread*****

[Dante84]

IT ****ING HAPPENED



OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by DRM08

His passer rating was 62 but his QBR was still 72 yesterday. Passer rating can be pretty misleading. Derek Carr passer rating was in the 90’s yesterday but QBR was rightfully in the 30’s. QBR in the 70’s is MVP quality. Wentz averaged 75 last year. I would say 72 QBR against one of the best defenses in the league is pretty solid stuff.

Yeah.

QBR is VASTLY superior to the standard rating system as far as judging a QB's performance.

Things like 3rd down and red zone performance matter.

[WhiteWhale]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Here is the QBR stat against Jags this year:

Eli Manning - 32.8
Tom Brady - 71.3
M. Mariota - 52.6
S. Darnold - 15.6
P. Mahomes - 72.7

What’s lost in the box score is he drove the ball all over the field against that defense. Multiple times they started deep in KC territory and marched right down the field.

Bortles QBR was 16.2 and you could argue he deserved lower than that. 4 of his turnovers caused a 28 point swing in favor of the Chiefs.

*cough* Five turnovers.

Remember he fumbled right after Mahomes first interception.

While fumbles aren't a passing stat, they sure as hell are related to QB performance. It's the reason people look at the passing stats of a guy like Cousins and wonder 'Why doesn't he win more?" Because he fumbles all the damn time.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by WhiteWhale

*cough* Five turnovers.

Remember he fumbled right after Mahomes first interception.

While fumbles aren't a passing stat, they sure as hell are related to QB performance. It's the reason people look at the passing stats of a guy like Cousins and wonder 'Why doesn't he win more?" Because he fumbles all the damn time.

He had 5 turnovers but I meant 4 of them caused actual point swing in the game. 3 INT’s in the Chiefs end zone cost JAX 21 points. The pick 6 obviously gave KC 7 free points. Mahomes had 2 turnovers but both were at midfield without a direct impact on the game. Fortunately the Bortles fumble wipes out any momentum on Mahomes’ first pick.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

He played ok. That's not a bad game, but for him it wasn't that good. Which is pretty god damn excited to have that type of QB now.

That was an Ok game for the Chiefs starting QB. Think about that. He's a first year starter still and made some gaffs. It happens.

But an OK game (IMO, maybe others feel different) he was 22-38 for 313 and two INT's, 2-4 on scoring TD"s in the redzone and missed a few shots.

That's not a good game by any means looking at the box score, but for a 1st year starter against that D, it was ****ing fun to watch.

I think 'okay' is a more than fair assessment. I mean if we were talking about Smith, we'd barbecue him for forcing the 2nd pick and overheating the 1st. We'd point out that 2 of his biggest plays were almost exclusively YAC yards to Watkins (designed screenish sort of thing) and Kelce (an unreal cutback on Barry Church). We'd note that he had some very indecisive looks in the red-zone and was clearly not quite ready for the speed of the Jags defense being able to close up those passing lanes in tight spaces. We would have absolutely crushed him for coming off Hill early a time or two (when he was getting separation from coverage) and definitely for underthrowing that deep pass early.

I mean the scoreboard says this game was a blowout but this game felt a shitload closer than the Chargers and Niners game. Frankly, the Steelers game seemed far more dominant as well.

If the Jags come back here in January, Bortles probably isn't throwing 3 interceptions in the end zone (with the 4th being a pick six on a screen). Marrone probably isn't throwing twice at 3rd and 2 after running the ball all the way down inside the 5. There were a half dozen different potential turning points in that game and they ALL went KC's way. If we face them again, Mahomes needs to be better than he was yesterday.

He didn't play poorly. He made some huge plays that we badly needed at the time. The good outweighed the bad by a fair amount. But I'm hopeful that he is able to play better against them should we face them again because I'm pretty sure we'll need him to.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think 'okay' is a more than fair assessment. I mean if we were talking about Smith, we'd barbecue him for forcing the 2nd pick and overheating the 1st. We'd point out that 2 of his biggest plays were almost exclusively YAC yards to Watkins (designed screenish sort of thing) and Kelce (an unreal cutback on Barry Church). We'd note that he had some very indecisive looks in the red-zone and was clearly not quite ready for the speed of the Jags defense being able to close up those passing lanes in tight spaces. We would have absolutely crushed him for coming off Hill early a time or two (when he was getting separation from coverage) and definitely for underthrowing that deep pass early.

I mean the scoreboard says this game was a blowout but this game felt a shitload closer than the Chargers and Niners game. Frankly, the Steelers game seemed far more dominant as well.

If the Jags come back here in January, Bortles probably isn't throwing 3 interceptions in the end zone (with the 4th being a pick six on a screen). Marrone probably isn't throwing twice at 3rd and 2 after running the ball all the way down inside the 5. There were a half dozen different potential turning points in that game and they ALL went KC's way. If we face them again, Mahomes needs to be better than he was yesterday.

He didn't play poorly. He made some huge plays that we badly needed at the time. The good outweighed the bad by a fair amount. But I'm hopeful that he is able to play better against them should we face them again because I'm pretty sure we'll need him to.

Yeah, pretty much to a T.

I mean, it wasn't bad. He did what he should have. On the second pick, you've gotta just throw it away and punt. I know that's not him, but he's gotta figure that out.

The first one just got away. That shit's gonna happen.

Some of the redzone stuff was probably out of his hands, but you've gotta punch it in down there.

But that's what you're gonna get with a first year starter. It wasn't a bad game and if that's the worst game were gonna get, that's not shabby.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think 'okay' is a more than fair assessment. I mean if we were talking about Smith, we'd barbecue him for forcing the 2nd pick and overheating the 1st. We'd point out that 2 of his biggest plays were almost exclusively YAC yards to Watkins (designed screenish sort of thing) and Kelce (an unreal cutback on Barry Church). We'd note that he had some very indecisive looks in the red-zone and was clearly not quite ready for the speed of the Jags defense being able to close up those passing lanes in tight spaces. We would have absolutely crushed him for coming off Hill early a time or two (when he was getting separation from coverage) and definitely for underthrowing that deep pass early.

I mean the scoreboard says this game was a blowout but this game felt a shitload closer than the Chargers and Niners game. Frankly, the Steelers game seemed far more dominant as well.

If the Jags come back here in January, Bortles probably isn't throwing 3 interceptions in the end zone (with the 4th being a pick six on a screen). Marrone probably isn't throwing twice at 3rd and 2 after running the ball all the way down inside the 5. There were a half dozen different potential turning points in that game and they ALL went KC's way. If we face them again, Mahomes needs to be better than he was yesterday.

He didn't play poorly. He made some huge plays that we badly needed at the time. The good outweighed the bad by a fair amount. But I'm hopeful that he is able to play better against them should we face them again because I'm pretty sure we'll need him to.

He will play better, but I don’t think you are giving him fair credit for some of those drives. Jags put KC in bad field position repeatedly. Every time Mahomes responded by marching down the field. It would be so easy against that defense to go 3 and out, fumble, or pick 6 deep in your own territory, especially for a very young QB. His QBR in the game was over 72. Compare that with Darnold’s 15 QBR against that same defense.

[O.city]

Darnold doesn't have Andy getting guys open schematically or the actual weapons Pat has.

It's ok to hold him to a higher standard here fellas.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by O.city

Darnold doesn't have Andy getting guys open schematically or the actual weapons Pat has.

It's ok to hold him to a higher standard here fellas.

Mahomes had a 72 QBR in that game. Brady averaged 73 last year and won MVP. This was arguably the best defense in the league. I would say it’s fair to give those guys credit. 72 QBR against those guys is pretty solid.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Mahomes had a 72 QBR in that game. Brady averaged 73 last year and won MVP. This was arguably the best defense in the league. I would say it’s fair to give those guys credit. 72 QBR against those guys is pretty solid.

Yeah, they're a really damn good defense.

Pat should have carved them up more yesterday. He had 3 or 4 throws he missed on that if he hits, it's 42-7

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DRM08

He will play better, but I don’t think you are giving him fair credit for some of those drives. Jags put KC in bad field position repeatedly. Every time Mahomes responded by marching down the field. It would be so easy against that defense to go 3 and out, fumble, or pick 6 deep in your own territory, especially for a very young QB. His QBR in the game was over 72. Compare that with Darnold’s 15 QBR against that same defense.

Those FG drives were remarkable. I think one of them was something like 80 yards and the other around 70-75. Those had to be so damn disheartening for that team, especially with them taking virtually their entire identity from their defense.

I think those drives were as impressive as anything we've seen from him to date. But I think you're not going to win post-season games with fieldgoals and while I respect the hell out of his ability to flip the field and put points on the board, if we're going to be fair we need to acknowledge that in the post-season we're gonna want him to have a better success rate when he gets down there. 2 chip shot field goals and a 3rd that really should have been a chip shot but/for Mahomes taking a sack that made that one harder than it needed to be.

I agree - he'll play better. My point is that this team is built around HIM and when the rubber hits the road, we'll need him to be great to have great outcomes in the post-season. Might be an unfair expectation to put on the kid, but it is what it is.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, they're a really damn good defense.

Pat should have carved them up more yesterday. He had 3 or 4 throws he missed on that if he hits, it's 42-7

He will next time. Every game is a learning experience for him.

[O.city]

In the redzone, he needs to let it rip more than waiting. Windows are really small down there, can't hold the ball.

I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he did make a few good throws down there that were dropped or they'd have been 7.

[Shaid]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Those FG drives were remarkable. I think one of them was something like 80 yards and the other around 70-75. Those had to be so damn disheartening for that team, especially with them taking virtually their entire identity from their defense.

I think those drives were as impressive as anything we've seen from him to date. But I think you're not going to win post-season games with fieldgoals and while I respect the hell out of his ability to flip the field and put points on the board, if we're going to be fair we need to acknowledge that in the post-season we're gonna want him to have a better success rate when he gets down there. 2 chip shot field goals and a 3rd that really should have been a chip shot but/for Mahomes taking a sack that made that one harder than it needed to be.

I agree - he'll play better. My point is that this team is built around HIM and when the rubber hits the road, we'll need him to be great to have great outcomes in the post-season. Might be an unfair expectation to put on the kid, but it is what it is.

Well, one of those was that Kelce dropped ball that would have been a walk in TD.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DRM08

He will next time. Every game is a learning experience for him.

Lets be honest here, its disappointing anytime we don't score a TD because we fully expect to every drive. Not realistic but that's the bar now.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Those FG drives were remarkable. I think one of them was something like 80 yards and the other around 70-75. Those had to be so damn disheartening for that team, especially with them taking virtually their entire identity from their defense.

I think those drives were as impressive as anything we've seen from him to date. But I think you're not going to win post-season games with fieldgoals and while I respect the hell out of his ability to flip the field and put points on the board, if we're going to be fair we need to acknowledge that in the post-season we're gonna want him to have a better success rate when he gets down there. 2 chip shot field goals and a 3rd that really should have been a chip shot but/for Mahomes taking a sack that made that one harder than it needed to be.

I agree - he'll play better. My point is that this team is built around HIM and when the rubber hits the road, we'll need him to be great to have great outcomes in the post-season. Might be an unfair expectation to put on the kid, but it is what it is.

Kelce dropped a perfect throw that should have been a TD and led to a field goal. I’m gonna hold the $10m veteran tight end to a higher standard than a quasi-rookie QB. Mahomes will learn from that game, but he was pretty damn good overall. 72 QBR against that defense is no joke. Brady won MVP last year averaging 73 QBR per game.

On the subject of drops, that needs to be tightened up. Young QB needs those guys to do their job. When the ball is there, catch it.