Money Investing megathread extravaganza - Page 115

**DaFace** · 06:35 PM

A place to talk about investing stuff.

Cornstock · 02-06-2018, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowanian

Investing is a lot like driving in a demolition derby. You put in the work, earn extra money and spend it on something fun that could/should result in a return if you're skilled and have good luck.

Then you log into your accounts, hear the count down and back up and smash into something hard. you pull forward and back into a sorry dodge dart that is stuck on the rail, making some impact and a slight display for the crown for a while, feel a rush of adrenaline. You spin mud as you round the corner through the smoke of the wreckage of the cryptocurrency chevrolet that is smashed into the bitcoin buick...you put your foot down and spin mud as you blaze through the fog and smoke just in time to find yourself blindsided in the drivers door. Your seatbelt breaks and as your body catapults across the cab into the collision with the drivers door, you see the battery sparking.

Now, I'm trying to stay composed as Ricky "rainman" Bobby is running around on the track in his underwear screaming about being on fire, even though he's not....

Today, I'm sitting back up in the driver seat, I wiggled the positive cable on the battery cut into the seat, and even through the noise I can hear the starter turning and hoping the carb isn't flooding.

I'll try to tie the seatbelt together and if this fires back up, I've still got a strong motor and the radiator is in tact.

My biggest fight right now is the urge to put money in and buy into my same stocks at the discount rate.

While most of this went over my head, this is a winner's attitude.

Be bold when others are afraid.

Cornstock · 02-06-2018, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I own Wells Fargo! I own Wells Fargo!

via GIPHY

Normally I would say just chill and ride it out...

But in the case of WF, this is the correct reaction.

Cornstock · 02-06-2018, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

Sitting in cash allows your to be eaten up by inflation in no time, especially if your timeline is a decade or more. The $10k you saved in 2004, is not worth anything close to $10k in today's money.

You realize if the market corrects 10-15% this week, people are still sitting with more money than they had a year ago? Factor in compounding interest over decades and it's very hard to lose money in the stock market with consistent investing across mutual funds, ETFs and indexes. Dabbling in individual stocks is a different story, however.

This. To cherry pick and take yesterday as an excuse to be in cash is to ignore an entire year of nearly unprecedented gains.

It's poor theory to willfully ignore the erosion of capital to inflation.

Cornstock · 02-06-2018, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

What’s the reason you don’t post in here more? We could use your great dialogue and knowledge.

This is probably my favorite CP thread. People are cordial, offer advice and there’s very little bickering.

This thread is what brings me back to CP in the down times. Great idea sharing and a positive environment.

TwistedChief · 02-07-2018, 02:50 AM

Just to give you guys a flavor of sentiment in the industry:

Very widely held belief that this was a technical and borderline healthy adjustment. Markets periodically go through something called a VaR shock, which in simple terms means a low vol environment leads to a larger build-up of positions and leverage to achieve the same return, only to see vol spike and then those positions need to similarly be scaled down (often at the worst possible time with everyone heading for the exit at the same moment). The people who rushed into inverse levered ETNs on the VIX were probably largely responsible for the truth depths of the sell off on Monday. Other "culprits" include CTAs (as I mentioned before, momentum-following accounts who have been feasting on broader macro trends this year) and Risk Parity (in simple terms, balanced funds who run long equity and long fixed income strategies normalized by volatility; Bridgewater is the largest).

People cite the strong fundamentals, etc and think that the pace of gains will slow from here but the general direction is higher.

My main concern with the above narrative is simply how widely it's shared. For several years the post-crisis landscape was dominated by central banks buying assets - primarily low risk but not always the case - and depriving investors of their return. Those investors who sold a US Treasury to the Fed for example were crowded out and then bought a corporate bond. Then the person who sold the corporate bond needed something to buy and he bought equities. This is called the 'portfolio balance channel.'

In any case, we're well past the crisis and central banks are beginning to dial back this sort of stimulus. The narrative, say, 3-4yrs ago was that risk assets benefited from this sort of easing, and when it's unwound, those same assets should suffer. Pretty basic mirror image (there are of course flaws in that logic). But as the Fed has hiked 125bps and is now running down its balance sheet of assets, equities and credit haven't blinked.

I think this has lulled people into the belief that the monetary policy unwind would be a complete non-event for risk assets (e.g., equities, credit). My concern is that the jitter we saw this week - which perhaps not uncoincidentally was preceded by the highest Treasury 10y yield since early 2014 - was the first shot across the bow to challenge that belief. Markets tend to trade certain themes when they choose to, and if you told me 6 months from now equities were languishing a little bit lower and people were citing this as the cause, I wouldn't be surprised for a second. The market is chalking this all up to be a technical sell-off but I'm not entirely convinced (though I do agree it's entirely possible).

Consider this: the Fed influences the economy through financial conditions, which you can think of as the stimulatory impact of equities (higher = better), credit rates (lower = better), and the dollar (lower = better). Since the Fed started hiking rates in late 2015 to gently slow the economy, financial conditions have actually become significantly easier. I.e., it has gone in the complete opposite direction that you would normally expect given the strong bid to equities and the ever-narrowing credit spreads to Treasuries (the dollar recently has also been contributing positively). So the Fed is trying to slow the economy, but their lever to do so isn't working.

Anyway, the above is just to say that the market is likely to be bumpier in the months ahead. I'm hardly trying to be a Cassandra here but you have literally just gone through one of the most impressive market moves in generations. Some details on that (credit Tony P at Goldman Sachs):

- the gross return of S&P in 2017 was +19.4%. including a dividend stream of 2.4%, the total return of S&P was +21.8%; this ranks as 78th percentile since 1962.

- realized volatility was 6.7%, the second lowest on record (1964 = 5.2%).

- the vol-adjusted total return of 3.3 ranks second only to 1995 (when the S&P returned 38% on 8% vol).

- the median daily market move was just 0.18% -- the smallest on record -- and the largest peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.8%, the mildest since 2.5% in 1995.

- wire-to-wire: the market didn’t trade negative at any point in the year, marking just the 10th such occurrence since 1928 (the most recent being 2013).

- 58% of days were up days (93rd percentile).

- for the first time on record, the S&P delivered a positive total return in each and every month this year.

Hope maybe this provides some useful perspective somewhere.

Hog's Gone Fishin · 02-07-2018, 05:48 PM

I like to watch Mad Money at 5 every day. Jim Cramer, some love him ,some despise him. He's a huge Eagles fan and has really been happy recently for some reason.

Anyway, tonight he gave us three DEFENSE stocks he likes so I plugged in the numbers for 1 year returns

(LMT) Lockheed Martin , up 34.74% 1 yr. Pays a 2.37% Div.
(HRS) Harris up 45.04% 1 yr. Pays a 1.53% Div
(RTN) Raytheon up 37.88% 1 yr. Pays a 1.59% Div

I think he stated Lockheed had like a 100 billion dollar backlog in orders (F-35's)

Discuss Thrower · 02-07-2018, 07:41 PM

LMT has other recent-ish contracts which makes them attractive if you're looking to make money off the unabashed evil that is the military-industrial complex. If you got enough for a lot of shares -go for it.

Hog's Gone Fishin · 02-07-2018, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

LMT has other recent-ish contracts which makes them attractive if you're looking to make money off the unabashed evil that is the military-industrial complex. If you got enough for a lot of shares -go for it.

I just looked at 5 year charts on all three and they avg 50% returns per year.

So , yeah, unabashed evil is good.

SuperBowl4 · 02-07-2018, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I like to watch Mad Money at 5 every day. Jim Cramer, some love him ,some despise him. He's a huge Eagles fan and has really been happy recently for some reason.

Anyway, tonight he gave us three DEFENSE stocks he likes so I plugged in the numbers for 1 year returns

(LMT) Lockheed Martin , up 34.74% 1 yr. Pays a 2.37% Div.
(HRS) Harris up 45.04% 1 yr. Pays a 1.53% Div
(RTN) Raytheon up 37.88% 1 yr. Pays a 1.59% Div

I think he stated Lockheed had like a 100 billion dollar backlog in orders (F-35's)

LMT-$345 per share

ChiliConCarnage · 02-08-2018, 04:07 PM

more heavy red today. Companies still beating earnings expectations mostly

NVDA hit 1.72 EPS against expected 1.16 EPS
Fireeye had positive EPS instead of an expected loss. small beat. same with Activision

**Rain Man** · 02-08-2018, 04:36 PM

I liked it way better when the market was going up every day.

**lewdog** · 02-08-2018, 06:01 PM

Does anyone know when options chains get updated? Is it at the end of a day or start of a day? Just curious when looking at numbers after a huge drop like today.

**Buehler445** · 02-08-2018, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

Does anyone know when options chains get updated? Is it at the end of a day or start of a day? Just curious when looking at numbers after a huge drop like today.

On the futures they are live. Or 15 M delay whatever you have. I don’t know about stocks.

**petegz28** · 02-08-2018, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

Does anyone know when options chains get updated? Is it at the end of a day or start of a day? Just curious when looking at numbers after a huge drop like today.

Your broker should show you option quotes in real time. What you see now should be how they closed.

**petegz28** · 02-08-2018, 07:58 PM

China and Japan down almost 3% right now. Think about this...granted we needed a correction and were due, but all of this violent selling and panic started because wage growth picked up just a smidge, jobless claims dropped and interest rates on the 10 year ticked up a whopping .3%

So because more people are working
And
People are making more money
And
Rates ticked up from an already low, low level of 2.5% to 2.8%

The market reacted by having some of the most violent and volatile sell offs, i.e. taper tantrums, in history

You'd think the ****ing world was coming to an end tomorrow

06-27-2016, 11:23 AM
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $-1653101	Investing megathread extravaganza A place to talk about investing stuff. Last edited by DaFace; 02-19-2021 at 06:35 PM..
Posts: 53,117

02-07-2018, 02:50 AM	#1715
TwistedChief Why so serious? Join Date: Dec 2016 Location: Chicago Casino cash: $-1219585	Just to give you guys a flavor of sentiment in the industry: Very widely held belief that this was a technical and borderline healthy adjustment. Markets periodically go through something called a VaR shock, which in simple terms means a low vol environment leads to a larger build-up of positions and leverage to achieve the same return, only to see vol spike and then those positions need to similarly be scaled down (often at the worst possible time with everyone heading for the exit at the same moment). The people who rushed into inverse levered ETNs on the VIX were probably largely responsible for the truth depths of the sell off on Monday. Other "culprits" include CTAs (as I mentioned before, momentum-following accounts who have been feasting on broader macro trends this year) and Risk Parity (in simple terms, balanced funds who run long equity and long fixed income strategies normalized by volatility; Bridgewater is the largest). People cite the strong fundamentals, etc and think that the pace of gains will slow from here but the general direction is higher. My main concern with the above narrative is simply how widely it's shared. For several years the post-crisis landscape was dominated by central banks buying assets - primarily low risk but not always the case - and depriving investors of their return. Those investors who sold a US Treasury to the Fed for example were crowded out and then bought a corporate bond. Then the person who sold the corporate bond needed something to buy and he bought equities. This is called the 'portfolio balance channel.' In any case, we're well past the crisis and central banks are beginning to dial back this sort of stimulus. The narrative, say, 3-4yrs ago was that risk assets benefited from this sort of easing, and when it's unwound, those same assets should suffer. Pretty basic mirror image (there are of course flaws in that logic). But as the Fed has hiked 125bps and is now running down its balance sheet of assets, equities and credit haven't blinked. I think this has lulled people into the belief that the monetary policy unwind would be a complete non-event for risk assets (e.g., equities, credit). My concern is that the jitter we saw this week - which perhaps not uncoincidentally was preceded by the highest Treasury 10y yield since early 2014 - was the first shot across the bow to challenge that belief. Markets tend to trade certain themes when they choose to, and if you told me 6 months from now equities were languishing a little bit lower and people were citing this as the cause, I wouldn't be surprised for a second. The market is chalking this all up to be a technical sell-off but I'm not entirely convinced (though I do agree it's entirely possible). Consider this: the Fed influences the economy through financial conditions, which you can think of as the stimulatory impact of equities (higher = better), credit rates (lower = better), and the dollar (lower = better). Since the Fed started hiking rates in late 2015 to gently slow the economy, financial conditions have actually become significantly easier. I.e., it has gone in the complete opposite direction that you would normally expect given the strong bid to equities and the ever-narrowing credit spreads to Treasuries (the dollar recently has also been contributing positively). So the Fed is trying to slow the economy, but their lever to do so isn't working. Anyway, the above is just to say that the market is likely to be bumpier in the months ahead. I'm hardly trying to be a Cassandra here but you have literally just gone through one of the most impressive market moves in generations. Some details on that (credit Tony P at Goldman Sachs): - the gross return of S&P in 2017 was +19.4%. including a dividend stream of 2.4%, the total return of S&P was +21.8%; this ranks as 78th percentile since 1962. - realized volatility was 6.7%, the second lowest on record (1964 = 5.2%). - the vol-adjusted total return of 3.3 ranks second only to 1995 (when the S&P returned 38% on 8% vol). - the median daily market move was just 0.18% -- the smallest on record -- and the largest peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.8%, the mildest since 2.5% in 1995. - wire-to-wire: the market didn’t trade negative at any point in the year, marking just the 10th such occurrence since 1928 (the most recent being 2013). - 58% of days were up days (93rd percentile). - for the first time on record, the S&P delivered a positive total return in each and every month this year. Hope maybe this provides some useful perspective somewhere.
Posts: 13,267	3 0

02-07-2018, 05:48 PM	#1716
Hog's Gone Fishin Fish are scared of me Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $-1429523	I like to watch Mad Money at 5 every day. Jim Cramer, some love him ,some despise him. He's a huge Eagles fan and has really been happy recently for some reason. Anyway, tonight he gave us three DEFENSE stocks he likes so I plugged in the numbers for 1 year returns (LMT) Lockheed Martin , up 34.74% 1 yr. Pays a 2.37% Div. (HRS) Harris up 45.04% 1 yr. Pays a 1.53% Div (RTN) Raytheon up 37.88% 1 yr. Pays a 1.59% Div I think he stated Lockheed had like a 100 billion dollar backlog in orders (F-35's)
Posts: 40,646

02-07-2018, 07:41 PM	#1717
Discuss Thrower "You like to drink?" Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: "I like to drink." Casino cash: $-160000	LMT has other recent-ish contracts which makes them attractive if you're looking to make money off the unabashed evil that is the military-industrial complex. If you got enough for a lot of shares -go for it. __________________ Chiefs 2016 Opponents: Home: JAX, TEN, NO, TB, NYJ. Away: HOU, IND, ATL, CAR, PIT Chiefs 2017 Opponents: Home: BUF, MIA, PHI, WSH, AFC North. Away: NE, NYJ, NYG, DAL, AFC South
Posts: 45,207

02-08-2018, 04:07 PM	#1720
ChiliConCarnage TACO SALAD Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: yes Casino cash: $-1871532	more heavy red today. Companies still beating earnings expectations mostly NVDA hit 1.72 EPS against expected 1.16 EPS Fireeye had positive EPS instead of an expected loss. small beat. same with Activision
Posts: 7,043

02-08-2018, 04:36 PM	#1721
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-452449 VARSITY	I liked it way better when the market was going up every day. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,245

02-08-2018, 06:01 PM	#1722
lewdog Mod Team Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Valley of the hot as **** Casino cash: $-1358100	Does anyone know when options chains get updated? Is it at the end of a day or start of a day? Just curious when looking at numbers after a huge drop like today.
Posts: 46,300

02-08-2018, 07:58 PM	#1725
petegz28 Supporter Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Olathe, Ks Casino cash: $-875873	China and Japan down almost 3% right now. Think about this...granted we needed a correction and were due, but all of this violent selling and panic started because wage growth picked up just a smidge, jobless claims dropped and interest rates on the 10 year ticked up a whopping .3% So because more people are working And People are making more money And Rates ticked up from an already low, low level of 2.5% to 2.8% The market reacted by having some of the most violent and volatile sell offs, i.e. taper tantrums, in history You'd think the ****ing world was coming to an end tomorrow
Posts: 132,259