Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Iowanian

Investing is a lot like driving in a demolition derby. You put in the work, earn extra money and spend it on something fun that could/should result in a return if you're skilled and have good luck.

Then you log into your accounts, hear the count down and back up and smash into something hard. you pull forward and back into a sorry dodge dart that is stuck on the rail, making some impact and a slight display for the crown for a while, feel a rush of adrenaline. You spin mud as you round the corner through the smoke of the wreckage of the cryptocurrency chevrolet that is smashed into the bitcoin buick...you put your foot down and spin mud as you blaze through the fog and smoke just in time to find yourself blindsided in the drivers door. Your seatbelt breaks and as your body catapults across the cab into the collision with the drivers door, you see the battery sparking.

Now, I'm trying to stay composed as Ricky "rainman" Bobby is running around on the track in his underwear screaming about being on fire, even though he's not....

Today, I'm sitting back up in the driver seat, I wiggled the positive cable on the battery cut into the seat, and even through the noise I can hear the starter turning and hoping the carb isn't flooding.

I'll try to tie the seatbelt together and if this fires back up, I've still got a strong motor and the radiator is in tact.


My biggest fight right now is the urge to put money in and buy into my same stocks at the discount rate.

I wish I had one of your bee hives . I think I'd just go out there and bash it with a ball bat naked and then when they swarm me I'd douse myself with gasoline and light them up and call it a day.

I hate days like today.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks

Watching people shit themselves over a 5% drop in a market that's up 25% in the last year provides a great window into why roughly 90% of day traders lose money.

Yup.

I’m not caring one bit about this. Won’t if it corrects 10% either. The past 2 years of gains were record pace. It wasn’t going to keep up.

[Iowanian]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I wish I had one of your bee hives . I think I'd just go out there and bash it with a ball bat naked and then when they swarm me I'd douse myself with gasoline and light them up and call it a day.

I hate days like today.

Honey bees are just like investing....You get stung a lot and just when things are looking up, 70% of your bees die.

BUT...as long as I don't panic sell my equipment and stock, I can get some more bees and build these purple Baltic Avenue properties into Atlantic Avenue houses and leverage those into Pennsylvania avenue hotels.

Keep your eyes on the prize.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Yup.

I’m not caring one bit about this. Won’t if it corrects 10% either. The past 2 years of gains were record pace. It wasn’t going to keep up.

I don't normally follow this thread but my profession is investing and this is 100% the right perspective. It doesn't mean you shouldn't worry about the move the last several days but you should also have the bigger picture in mind. We're basically back to early December levels.

There were any number of positioning metrics flashing 'euphoria' on a scale that we haven't seen post-crisis. Macro themes (long equities, long EM, short rates, short USD) have been dominating the trading environment and trending aggressively. All of these things rode the wave of sentiment up and now the same thing happens on the way down (you can blame a class of investors known as CTAs for amplifying these moves). This is how markets have operated forever.

Equities may still end up performing just fine over the next several months, but more likely than not the risk/reward (Sharpe in industry parlance) will just be poorer. So be prepared to feel less euphoric and more balanced. But this is what ultimately makes for a healthier market.

Said another way, the experience of investing in stocks is transitioning from feeling like being a fan of the Patriots to being a fan of the Chiefs.

Good luck, folks.

[ChiliConCarnage]

XIV is at termination levels right now in after hours. 85% down. svxy too

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

I don't normally follow this thread but my profession is investing and this is 100% the right perspective. It doesn't mean you shouldn't worry about the move the last several days but you should also have the bigger picture in mind. We're basically back to early December levels.

There were any number of positioning metrics flashing 'euphoria' on a scale that we haven't seen post-crisis. Macro themes (long equities, long EM, short rates, short USD) have been dominating the trading environment and trending aggressively. All of these things rode the wave of sentiment up and now the same thing happens on the way down (you can blame a class of investors known as CTAs for amplifying these moves). This is how markets have operated forever.

Equities may still end up performing just fine over the next several months, but more likely than not the risk/reward (Sharpe in industry parlance) will just be poorer. So be prepared to feel less euphoric and more balanced. But this is what ultimately makes for a healthier market.

Said another way, the experience of investing in stocks is transitioning from feeling like being a fan of the Patriots to being a fan of the Chiefs.

Good luck, folks.

I used stop loss orders today and it looks like it saved me about 3k of losses based on where those stocks closed. Now I get a chance to rebalance at better prices.

[Rain Man]

It's interesting to see the different strategies at play here. In the short-term, I favor my strategy of screaming and crying while buying into face of the tsunami.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

I used stop loss orders today and it looks like it saved me about 3k of losses based on where those stocks closed. Now I get a chance to rebalance at better prices.

All fair and true and stops are a sound method of risk management. But just because you saved that 3k doesn't mean you have to become re-invested again immediately because it went down further.

There are two schools of thought. One is that if you liked the market at X, the market at 95% of X is a real bargain. The counter to that is if you liked the market at X and it's now at 95% of X, something in your original thesis was entirely incorrect.

When you're invested in something, you are naturally going to be less honest about it than if you were a dispassionate outside observer. You stopped on some positions and now have the ability to view things more objectively. That is a huge advantage in a market that's been driven by euphoric sentiment.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

It's interesting to see the different strategies at play here. In the short-term, I favor my strategy of screaming and crying while buying into face of the tsunami.

If you combine that with hope and prayer and a blind allegiance to the Ermines, it's 100% of the time worked about 25% of the time.

[Over Yonder]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

It's interesting to see the different strategies at play here. In the short-term, I favor my strategy of screaming and crying while buying into face of the tsunami.

These times are when I am glad I am 100% cash. I don't have the gambling mentality. If I even lost 5% in a short period of time, I would probably stroke out and die right there! Then, I would have no retirement.

That's my way of looking at life

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Over Yonder

These times are when I am glad I am 100% cash. I don't have the gambling mentality. If I even lost 5% in a short period of time, I would probably stroke out and die right there! Then, I would have no retirement.

That's my way of looking at life

Sitting in cash allows your to be eaten up by inflation in no time, especially if your timeline is a decade or more. The $10k you saved in 2004, is not worth anything close to $10k in today's money.

You realize if the market corrects 10-15% this week, people are still sitting with more money than they had a year ago? Factor in compounding interest over decades and it's very hard to lose money in the stock market with consistent investing across mutual funds, ETFs and indexes. Dabbling in individual stocks is a different story, however.

[EPodolak]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Sitting in cash allows your to be eaten up by inflation in no time, especially if your timeline is a decade or more. The $10k you saved in 2004, is not worth anything close to $10k in today's money.

You realize if the market corrects 10-15% this week, people are still sitting with more money than they had a year ago? Factor in compounding interest over decades and it's very hard to lose money in the stock market with consistent investing across mutual funds, ETFs and indexes. Dabbling in individual stocks is a different story, however.

Right. And learn to take a long view of finances, days like these are inevitable, always have been. Nobody can time them, invest what you can for the long term and forget about it.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

All fair and true and stops are a sound method of risk management. But just because you saved that 3k doesn't mean you have to become re-invested again immediately because it went down further.

There are two schools of thought. One is that if you liked the market at X, the market at 95% of X is a real bargain. The counter to that is if you liked the market at X and it's now at 95% of X, something in your original thesis was entirely incorrect.

When you're invested in something, you are naturally going to be less honest about it than if you were a dispassionate outside observer. You stopped on some positions and now have the ability to view things more objectively. That is a huge advantage in a market that's been driven by euphoric sentiment.

Interesting you said that . US steel is one stock I own.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

I don't normally follow this thread but my profession is investing and this is 100% the right perspective. It doesn't mean you shouldn't worry about the move the last several days but you should also have the bigger picture in mind. We're basically back to early December levels.

There were any number of positioning metrics flashing 'euphoria' on a scale that we haven't seen post-crisis. Macro themes (long equities, long EM, short rates, short USD) have been dominating the trading environment and trending aggressively. All of these things rode the wave of sentiment up and now the same thing happens on the way down (you can blame a class of investors known as CTAs for amplifying these moves). This is how markets have operated forever.

Equities may still end up performing just fine over the next several months, but more likely than not the risk/reward (Sharpe in industry parlance) will just be poorer. So be prepared to feel less euphoric and more balanced. But this is what ultimately makes for a healthier market.

Said another way, the experience of investing in stocks is transitioning from feeling like being a fan of the Patriots to being a fan of the Chiefs.

Good luck, folks.

What’s the reason you don’t post in here more? We could use your great dialogue and knowledge.

This is probably my favorite CP thread. People are cordial, offer advice and there’s very little bickering.

[Over Yonder]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Sitting in cash allows your to be eaten up by inflation in no time, especially if your timeline is a decade or more. The $10k you saved in 2004, is not worth anything close to $10k in today's money.

You realize if the market corrects 10-15% this week, people are still sitting with more money than they had a year ago? Factor in compounding interest over decades and it's very hard to lose money in the stock market with consistent investing across mutual funds, ETFs and indexes. Dabbling in individual stocks is a different story, however.

Yea, I know you are correct. You may not remember, but me and you had a brief discussion about this over on the DC side a while back. I'm that type of guy that looks at investing like this. If I keep all my money and my employers match plus the little dab of interest/dividend it accumulates, I am satisfied. Like I said, I'm not a gambler.

And for the record, the in my reply was to his joke, not anything else. Definitely not trying to be rude or anything. I have a very meager traditional IRA and the 401k down at work. Love reading this thread and seeing how those of you who are brave are winning the game. Sometimes I wish my brain wasn't wired the way it is, I could possibly be making coin too