Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

You can come up with 40 grand of deductions?

**** if I have to, maybe

[kepp]

Originally Posted by Cornstock

Smart of you to take advantage of the 401k match and using it as a vehicle to save more. A savvy investor may opt to contribute the minimum to a 401k to earn the match, and invest in an an IRA/Roth outside of work to take advantage of additional fund offerings, but for the every day saver you've made the right choice.

As far as the "bottom falling out," you being 36 should not worry about this as long as you have a disciplined long term strategy. A market correction of 10% won't break you like it would a person near retirement, and you will be able to participate in the inevitable recovery, which is the most lucrative time in a market.

...

But if you can time the correction fairly close and change over to bonds until it hits bottom, and then move back over to aggressive funds, won't you get much more from the recovery? I know...lots of 'ifs' in that, but if you can work it...

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by kepp

But if you can time the correction fairly close and change over to bonds until it hits bottom, and then move back over to aggressive funds, won't you get much more from the recovery? I know...lots of 'ifs' in that, but if you can work it...

Sure, if you're able to see into the future, that's a great approach. In reality, almost everyone sucks at timing the market.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by kepp

But if you can time the correction fairly close and change over to bonds until it hits bottom, and then move back over to aggressive funds, won't you get much more from the recovery? I know...lots of 'ifs' in that, but if you can work it...

That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.

People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.

Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.

[Unsmooth-Moment]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.

People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.

Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.

This is good advice.


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[Cornstock]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.

People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.

Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.

People who try to time the market almost always end up losing and giving money back to Wall Street. I've seen it time and time again.

Worse yet are the panickers who sell at the bottom and stay in cash. Emotional investing is bad investing; cooler heads prevail.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Cornstock

People who try to time the market almost always end up losing and giving money back to Wall Street. I've seen it time and time again.

Worse yet are the panickers who sell at the bottom and stay in cash. Emotional investing is bad investing; cooler heads prevail.

Bingo!

[lewdog]

Can someone explain to me who and what estimated taxes should be paid through the year from selling stock? I have done lots of reading and it’s comfusing who must pay through year and who can just wait to pay these when they file their taxes for the year?

[kepp]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.

People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.

Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.

What do you mean by this? Are you saying that if I move into bonds too early I would forfeit gains that I would have made had I stayed in aggressive funds? Or is different cost in moving to bonds?

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Can someone explain to me who and what estimated taxes should be paid through the year from selling stock? I have done lots of reading and it’s comfusing who must pay through year and who can just wait to pay these when they file their taxes for the year?

Here is some decent explanation of underpayment rules. Underpaid is different than owing. Underpaying means the IRS is going to fine you. Owing just means you have a liability but no penalties.

Basically it says that if you owe a grand or less you're good (total tax - withholding). Or you've paid the lesser of 90% of total tax due OR 100% of PY tax liability.

And that is assessed capital gains. Gains in a retirement fund are not taxed. So you're just looking at whatever you've sold outside of retirement.

I'd say if you are withholding enough for you and your wife, and unless you have a SHITLOAD of gain, you're probably good.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kepp

What do you mean by this? Are you saying that if I move into bonds too early I would forfeit gains that I would have made had I stayed in aggressive funds? Or is different cost in moving to bonds?

I don't want to speak for him, but I'd imagine that's what they're saying. If you'd have pulled out of your money when Trump got elected (as a lot of people talked about), especially after that overnight move on the futures, you'd have missed more than it will likely set back.

All speculation of course, that's why they call it speculating, not hedging, but yeah. There shouldn't be any other cost.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

That was my philosophy on various debts. I just wanted them off the books as fast as possible. At my phase in life, I'm no longer paying any debt and instead I'm on the receiving end. There's a huge mental benefit to that.

That's my take. The mental side of debt has always been the toughest part for me. Once I got a handle on it, and eliminated it, I could breathe. For some reason, that's just how I'm wired.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by kepp

What do you mean by this? Are you saying that if I move into bonds too early I would forfeit gains that I would have made had I stayed in aggressive funds? Or is different cost in moving to bonds?

Exactly right. Timing the market results in forfeiting gains much more so than actually timing the market correctly.

Buehler’s response is a perfect example. Those scared of Trump who moved money, lost 20%+ gains easily.

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I don't want to speak for him, but I'd imagine that's what they're saying. If you'd have pulled out of your money when Trump got elected (as a lot of people talked about), especially after that overnight move on the futures, you'd have missed more than it will likely set back.

All speculation of course, that's why they call it speculating, not hedging, but yeah. There shouldn't be any other cost.

[Rain Man]

It's weeks like this where I really wish I could time the market. I've had a lot of money evaporate over the past few days.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

It's weeks like this where I really wish I could time the market. I've had a lot of money evaporate over the past few days.

At the rate it's going, I'm going to own a penny stock!