Gasoline over $4 coming to a pump near you because this thread is ass

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Plow

Not looking forward to the prices I'm going to see traveling to Las Vegas next week.

Yup. We're leaving in 2 weeks to drive to Colorado, spend a week there and then drive back.

So looking forward to the gas card bill I'll get after we get back . . . . .

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

This is bullshit

According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 2.2 million bbl to 228.6 million bbl last week. However, gasoline demand increased slightly from 8.74 million b/d to 8.86 million b/d. Increasing gas demand and rising oil prices have pushed pump prices higher. Pump prices will likely face upward pressure as oil prices remain above $105 per barrel.

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

Indeed. The family and I are headed to Bonaire at the end of the month and I'm SOOOOOO happy I purchased our airline tickets months back, I dodged a bullet there.

Same. Luckily we bought our Jamaica and Mexico airfare a while ago. We’ve been looking into our tix to Trinidad in 2024, and the prices are nuts. Around 2-3k current. Hope that shit goes down drastically before I have to book.

[Donger]

May 10 (Reuters) - Retail gasoline prices in the United States rose on Tuesday and hit another all-time record, surpassing one set in March, as global refineries grappled with a bottleneck that has sent prices soaring ahead of driving season.

The average cost of a retail gallon of gasoline hit $4.374 early Tuesday, according to the American Automobile Association, surpassing the former record of $4.331.

Since March 30, Brent crude futures have lost 7%, but gasoline futures are up 9.4%, and hit a record on Friday of $3.7590 per gallon before selling off on Monday.

Refinery closures due to both scheduled maintenance and unplanned upsets have boosted fuel prices even as the United States and other nations have taken steps to boost worldwide crude supply. Global fuel stockpiles are dwindling as demand has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Supplies tightened further following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia from the United States and allies.

The world has lost 1 million barrels of refining capacity and 1.5 million barrels of oil supply since the pandemic, estimated Mike Jennings, chief executive officer at HF Sinclair Corp in an earnings call on Monday.

"That's 2.5% of world consumption...it's a big number," said Jennings.

In the spring, refiners prioritize gasoline output ahead of warmer weather when driving picks up. But in recent weeks, they have increased distillate output to meet jet fuel and diesel demand in Europe, Latin America and the United States, as Western sanctions on Moscow curtailed Russia's exports.

"On the refinery earnings calls, they're talking about making sure they run at full steam - refinery utilization is going to stay very high throughout the year," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

Diesel fuel reached a record of $5.45 per gallon at the pump this week.

Still, fuel prices in the United States remain substantially lower than in other major consumers like the UK, Japan and France, where higher taxes increase the cost of fuel.

"I don't see this resolving itself until 2023 at the earliest, when more refining capacity comes online in the Middle East and Asia," said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

The price of U.S. crude oil, the largest input cost for refiners, has fallen nearly $20 from highs reached in March, with supplies boosted by the release of millions of crude barrels from U.S. strategic reserves and demand dented by coronavirus lockdowns in China.

However, product inventories are still falling. U.S. gasoline inventories are down 3% year-on-year to 228.6 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The 3-2-1 crack spread , a proxy for refining margins, reached $54.34 on Monday, nearly 150% higher than at this time a year ago.

"I think that we can expect, assuming the economies stay reasonably strong, that commodity prices and, particularly prices of our products, are going to be relatively high," Jennings said.

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by Donger

May 10 (Reuters) - Retail gasoline prices in the United States rose on Tuesday and hit another all-time record, surpassing one set in March, as global refineries grappled with a bottleneck that has sent prices soaring ahead of driving season.

The average cost of a retail gallon of gasoline hit $4.374 early Tuesday, according to the American Automobile Association, surpassing the former record of $4.331.

Since March 30, Brent crude futures have lost 7%, but gasoline futures are up 9.4%, and hit a record on Friday of $3.7590 per gallon before selling off on Monday.

Refinery closures due to both scheduled maintenance and unplanned upsets have boosted fuel prices even as the United States and other nations have taken steps to boost worldwide crude supply. Global fuel stockpiles are dwindling as demand has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Supplies tightened further following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia from the United States and allies.

The world has lost 1 million barrels of refining capacity and 1.5 million barrels of oil supply since the pandemic, estimated Mike Jennings, chief executive officer at HF Sinclair Corp in an earnings call on Monday.

"That's 2.5% of world consumption...it's a big number," said Jennings.

In the spring, refiners prioritize gasoline output ahead of warmer weather when driving picks up. But in recent weeks, they have increased distillate output to meet jet fuel and diesel demand in Europe, Latin America and the United States, as Western sanctions on Moscow curtailed Russia's exports.

"On the refinery earnings calls, they're talking about making sure they run at full steam - refinery utilization is going to stay very high throughout the year," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

Diesel fuel reached a record of $5.45 per gallon at the pump this week.

Still, fuel prices in the United States remain substantially lower than in other major consumers like the UK, Japan and France, where higher taxes increase the cost of fuel.

"I don't see this resolving itself until 2023 at the earliest, when more refining capacity comes online in the Middle East and Asia," said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

The price of U.S. crude oil, the largest input cost for refiners, has fallen nearly $20 from highs reached in March, with supplies boosted by the release of millions of crude barrels from U.S. strategic reserves and demand dented by coronavirus lockdowns in China.

However, product inventories are still falling. U.S. gasoline inventories are down 3% year-on-year to 228.6 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The 3-2-1 crack spread , a proxy for refining margins, reached $54.34 on Monday, nearly 150% higher than at this time a year ago.

"I think that we can expect, assuming the economies stay reasonably strong, that commodity prices and, particularly prices of our products, are going to be relatively high," Jennings said.

Let’s go ....

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

Let’s go ....

Let's go what?

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by Donger

Let's go what?

Sorry, no politics in the lounge.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Coochie liquor

Sorry, no politics in the lounge.

Oh that. Yes, if you want to discuss that in DC, I'll be happy to.

[MarkDavis'Haircut]

$4.60 a gallon here.

This world is hell. And completely avoidable

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Carr4MVP

$4.60 a gallon here.

This world is hell. And completely avoidable

How could the present situation have been avoided?

[Otter]

Originally Posted by Donger

How could the present situation have been avoided?

By question marks and emojis!

?

[Bearcat]

via GIPHY

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Donger

How could the present situation have been avoided?

That's bait.gif

[MarkDavis'Haircut]

Originally Posted by Donger

How could the present situation have been avoided?

You know how.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Carr4MVP

You know how.

During the pandemic, demand absolutely cratered and crude dropped with it. That led to significantly reduced production. Demand has increased and supply is having issues meeting that demand. See above:

According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 2.2 million bbl to 228.6 million bbl last week. However, gasoline demand increased slightly from 8.74 million b/d to 8.86 million b/d.

Throw in the war in Ukraine and the effects that it has had, and here we are.

I understand some people, probably including you, want to make everything about politics. And I'd be happy to discuss that in DC if you'd like. Please don't bring it in here.