Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Amnorix]

So for those who pay more than $10,000 in combined real estate and state/local property taxes, I'm hearing that it makes sense to prepay real estate taxes for 2018 in 2017, if possible. Also, for those paying quarterly estimated taxes, instead of paying the final state estimated income tax on 1/15/18, prepay that in 2017 also.

Those steps obviously allow for deduction in 2017, when they would potentially be lost otherwise due to the new tax bill that seems likely to get through Congress.

[Rain Man]

In my current philosophy, I struggle with recommending stocks, because my system of picking is laughable. In terms of recommending, do I talk up stocks that have taken a beating and should turn around, or stocks that are making a run and may be running out of steam? I never know.

That said, here are a few that I like, in no particular order:

TTWO - You know them as the makers of Grand Theft Auto. They don't pay a dividend and I bought them before my dividend strategy was embraced. But wow - this company would've made me affluent if I'd just kept my original holdings and not sold any off. It's quintupled in the last five years.

CODI - Holding company for a bunch of products I've never heard of. The stock price never moves, but it pays an 8%+ dividend. In the current bull market that's not a winner, but in the long run it is.

CVGW - Avocado grower. Pays a 1.3% dividend, and it just always goes up for me.

SEP - Natural gas pipeline company. It's down over the past couple of years, but it pays almost a 7 percent dividend and I keep thinking it'll turn around. I got a good runup three or four years ago.

PSX - I've read that Phillips 66 is more of a refiner than a producer, so they're less volatile to oil prices. Pays a 2.8% dividend.

RCL or CUK - Lots of baby boomers retiring with money, so I like cruise lines, and they countercycle with oil prices. RCL pays a 1.9% dividend and CUK pays 2.8%

MPW - REIT that leases medical office space. Pays a 7.1% dividend. Kind of like CODI above, in that the stock price doesn't move but it returns more than inflation.

GOOG - Probably everyone should have some Google at this point.

NDSN - As near as I can tell, they make nozzles and things for spraying stuff in industrial use. (Shrug.) 0.8% dividend, but it's done well for me. You may have missed the boat on it since it jumped 17 percent yesterday.

VZN - Pays a 4.5% dividend. I've muddled along with this stock but think it's a long-term gainer. Just a hunch.

SSW - I've lost my shirt on this ocean freighter company, with the stock down 40 percent since I bought it. But come on - it's profitable and it pays an 8.5% dividend. I've been buying it the whole way down until I reached a limit on how much I'll put into any stock. If it comes back, it'll produce some big gains and I don't see why it's down so much. I kind of want to buy more.

[kepp]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Some cheap stocks I've been watching today

OHGI

SIEB

BITCF

Not recommending any but wish I had owned them at 8:00 this morning.

BITCF was the one I was talking about yesterday with the big bid/ask spread. It's still at $1.49/$1.92 (at the time of this post), which is almost a 33% difference. But it has gone up 47% today.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Was listening to Bloomberg yesterday. They say professional stock brokers as well as amateurs are wrong 70% of the time. The difference is the pro's cut their losses quickly while most amateurs try to ride a stock until it turns around and many times they add to it to average down and just lose it all.

I'm pretty sure thats right from my own stupid shit I've done.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by petegz28

FIFO is not going to be part of the tax bill so no need to continue worrying about it. If it were even a chance you'd see an ass load of tax loss selling right now. Instead we are up 18 points on the SPX

The sell off happened weeks ago when the news came out. The Senate passed the bill with FIFO in it on Dec. 2nd. Look back at like Nov. 27/28 for almost any stock up huge on the year. The great semiconductors, tech, China stock recession of 2017.



This is Lam Research. Pretty much every semi.. NVDA, MU, AMAT, etc. Then anything up a ton in US Tech or China Tech

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

The sell off happened weeks ago when the news came out. The Senate passed the bill with FIFO in it on Dec. 2nd. Look back at like Nov. 27/28 for almost any stock up huge on the year. The great semiconductors, tech, China stock recession of 2017.



This is Lam Research. Pretty much every semi.. NVDA, MU, AMAT, etc. Then anything up a ton in US Tech or China Tech

Interesting as shit. Thanks!

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Was listening to Bloomberg yesterday. They say professional stock brokers as well as amateurs are wrong 70% of the time. The difference is the pro's cut their losses quickly while most amateurs try to ride a stock until it turns around and many times they add to it to average down and just lose it all.

I'm pretty sure thats right from my own stupid shit I've done.

You just described my SSW strategy perfectly.

That's not good, though.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Bought INTV 2 weeks ago .Up 104% today and 126% since I bought it. Hope the guys don't short it before close today because I'm letting it ride.

GBTC
RIOT
MARA
All kicking ass today

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

SSW - I've lost my shirt on this ocean freighter company, with the stock down 40 percent since I bought it. But come on - it's profitable and it pays an 8.5% dividend. I've been buying it the whole way down until I reached a limit on how much I'll put into any stock. If it comes back, it'll produce some big gains and I don't see why it's down so much. I kind of want to buy more.

Healthy companies will rarely have 8.5% dividends so that stands out right away. Unless it's something cyclical and temporary, for instance, Cal-Maine went crazy high during the avian flu thing that caused egg prices to go up. Anything much above 5ish should draw extra attention. REITs don't pay taxes and have to distribute 90+% of profits so they get big divs. The taxes are passed onto the investors because you have to pay on income instead of cap gains.

SSW has a 218% payout ratio. Just the common shares dividend seems more than income can cover. Looking at the balance sheet, they've been diluting shares which probably has caused the stock to sink.

cvgw looks nice though. Put it on my watchlist.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

Healthy companies will rarely have 8.5% dividends so that stands out right away. Unless it's something cyclical and temporary, for instance, Cal-Maine went crazy high during the avian flu thing that caused egg prices to go up. Anything much above 5ish should draw extra attention. REITs don't pay taxes and have to distribute 90+% of profits so they get big divs. The taxes are passed onto the investors because you have to pay on income instead of cap gains.

SSW has a 218% payout ratio. Just the common shares dividend seems more than income can cover. Looking at the balance sheet, they've been diluting shares which probably has caused the stock to sink.

cvgw looks nice though. Put it on my watchlist.

Yeah, I think SSW paid about 5% when I bought it, but then the stock dropped 40%, which drove the dividend yield up. I haven't heard anything about them cutting it, which would be bad, so I'm hoping that they're expecting the price to go back up. I think it cratered a couple of years ago when that Korean shipping company went belly up, and I figured that would help its price. But I guess we're embracing American steel or whatever.

CVGW has been a very nice stock for me. I find it funny that avocados are that big an industry, but hey, guacamole.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by scho63

I bought puts as a hedge. I averaged down and the call premiums had no good value to write against the stock. Not worth it.

I've cut about $800 off my $2,000 loses so far.

Ok bud, I have covered calls down.

Now on to puts.

How did you buy a stock at $19ish and have it currently trading in the $17's but "made" money on it losing value? How do you short a stock you currently own and where does the money you make come from?

What do you mean when you say "I averaged down and the call premiums had no good value?"

Thanks for the help! I owe you a beer!

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Ok bud, I have covered calls down.

Now on to puts.

How did you buy a stock at $19ish and have it currently trading in the $17's but "made" money on it losing value? How do you short a stock you currently own and where does the money you make come from?

What do you mean when you say "I averaged down and the call premiums had no good value?"

Thanks for the help! I owe you a beer!

The puts gained value as it went down. It is a separate trade from the stock.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Ok bud, I have covered calls down.

Now on to puts.

How did you buy a stock at $19ish and have it currently trading in the $17's but "made" money on it losing value? How do you short a stock you currently own and where does the money you make come from?

What do you mean when you say "I averaged down and the call premiums had no good value?"

Thanks for the help! I owe you a beer!

A) You short a stock you own by selling it
B) If you want to short a stock you own without selling it then you buy puts that total more shares than you own. So if you own 500 shares and you want to short 500 shares then you need to buy 10 puts.
C) You buy a stock at 19 and then buy puts. Depending on the Puts you buy and how fast they gain in value, you could offset your 2 point loss and make more than 2 points on the Puts. That's tough going though.

There are 2 ways to use Puts effectively...

A) As a hedge on your current investment
B) To buy stock you want at a cheaper price than today's value

Warren Buffet does this a lot. If he wants to buy a stock that's at $50 but he says, I will pay $47 then he will write a ton of $47 Puts. If the stock comes down he gets it at his $47 but it may be lower by then. He doesn't care cause he thinks $47 is a price he will eventually profit from. If the stock doesn't go down or continues to go up, he pockets the premium and ladders up.

The 3rd and most unsuccessful way to make money on Puts is the same, most unsuccessful way to make money on Calls. Buy them outright and hope you're right about time and direction.

Buyers of options lose money 90% of the time. You got the guys who talk a lot on CNBC and what not about calendar spreads, credit spreads, condors, this, that and the other thing. And by the time you factor in the Bid\Ask along with commissions, you are making really dick on most of them.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

The puts gained value as it went down. It is a separate trade from the stock.

Yeah but net-net you probably lost money or broke even at best. If the stock was at $19 and went to $17, assuming you bout $19 Puts, the option is worth $2 at expiration. So you broke even, even if you made a profit on the specific option trade.

[petegz28]

Options for speculation is tough sledding and I don't know anyone who consistently makes money at it unless they are very well capitalized. And those that do, profit by writing naked. They may use a spread to have something of a built in stop loss but that's about it.

If you're good at spotting points of volatility then you can make some good money on straddles and strangles if you want to buy. I have made money on those but if the market goes flat you lose big time. You also have to be quick to sell your losing position.

You're better off trading futures if you want to make money with leverage. Options buying is a fools game most of the time. Everything is against you. You have to be right about the time and the direction.

The only caveat I would say to that is, if you wanted to buy at or in the money calls, several months out in lieu of buying the stock itself.

If you don't understand the concepts of Beta, Delta, Theta and Vega then you're best off not buying options.